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高盛购买中国邮储银行的股份;印度储备银行放宽银行同业拆解规定

Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Broadband Only Homes Skyrocket In 2018 Validating Top MSOs Connectivity Pivot

Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View


高盛购买中国邮储银行的股份;印度储备银行放宽银行同业拆解规定

* 据《腾讯证券》报道,中国邮储银行IPO保荐行之一的Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 原本持有该行18.2亿股股票,近日又以22.6亿元的价格买入4.75亿股股票。

* 据《产经新闻》报道Taiyo Life Insurance Co.与缅甸国有保险公司Myanma Insurance签署协议,将在该国推广健康保险。

* 据《Maeil Business Newspaper报道Shinhan Bank Vietnam Ltd.在越南开设第18间分行,成为该国分行数量最多的外资银行。

* 据《金融时报》报道Temasek Holdings (Pvt) Ltd.聘请John Vaske负责管理他们在北美的投资组合,力求巩固他们在美国的业务。Vaske是一位资深的交易商,之前与高盛有合伙关系。

大中华地区

* 据《腾讯证券》报道,中国首次超越美国成为全球最大的国外资产收购者。Dealogic的数据显示,2016年前9个月时间里,中国企业进行的境外并购交易的总价值达到了1739亿美元,同比增长68%。但在前9个月中,中国当局共撤回42项中国企业的境外并购交易,总价值358亿美元。

* 据《腾讯证券》报道,指数提供商富时罗素公司(FTSE Russell)的首席执行官麦思平(Mark Makepeace)称,中国债券市场可能会在股市之前被纳入全球指数,原因是政府干预措施导致境外投资者有关当局对股市进行改革之承诺的信心受到了损害。

* 据《台北时报》报道 CTBC Financial Holding Co大股Jeffrey Koo JrCTBC其他高管因涉嫌挪用公司资金、进行其他非法金融交易及违反《证券交易法》、《洗钱防制法》和《保险法》遭到台湾最高检察院办公室特别调查部门起诉。

* 据《自由时报》报道,台湾地区前"第一夫人"周美青将从Mega International Commercial Bank Co. Ltd.及其慈善基金离职。兆丰慈善基金会将召开董事会,讨论递补新任董事人选。

* 据《台北时报》报道,台湾地区央行表示,截至9月底,台湾的外汇储备规模达4367.3亿美元,较8月增加8.64亿美元。该央行认为增长原因在于采取了成功的投资管理策略。9月,相关外汇组合经理人持有价值3162亿美元的岛内股票和债券,占外汇储备总额的72%

日本与韩国

* 据《产经新闻》报道Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc. 董事长Koichiro Watanabe表示,金融科技业务正成为日本金融服务行业的核心业务,例如:保险承保和银行信用评价。

* 据《共同社》引述熟悉相关事项的消息人士报道,Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.将在使用先进技术发现并制止包括洗钱在内的非法活动方面与HSBC Holdings PlcOversea-Chinese Banking Corp. Ltd.开展合作。

* 据东京《日本经济新闻》报道Bank of Yokohama Ltd.将把节假日期间开业的支行数量增加至10间。从第四季度开始,将先有2间支行在节假日期间营业。

* 据《朝鲜日报》报道,韩国会计准则委员会将代表韩国保险业向国际会计准则理事会提交将《国际财务报告准则第4号》(IFRS 4)第二阶段的三年实施期限再延长两年的正式请求。

东南亚

* 据泰国《Krungthep Turakij报道Bank of Thailand (4328779)负责金融机构政策小组的助理行长Somboon Chitphentom认为,决策者应从贷款机构和借款人两方面考虑,才能解决该国的非正式贷款问题。他表示,该国财政部让非正式贷款提供商注册的新措施及规定此类贷款提供商可收取利率的新法律将有助于非正式贷款问题的解决。

* 据泰国《Daily News报道,泰国证券交易委员会将很快发布上市公司良好管治新指导方针。

* 据《Daily News报道,泰国房地产协会、泰国住房商业协会及泰国公寓协会将要求Bank of Thailand 对国家信用局上的债务人个人规定进行修改。目前,在债务人已经还清所有债务后,银行仍需保留债务人的个人记录三年,各家协会希望央行可以将期限缩短至1年。

* 据《Daily News报道Krung Thai Bank PCL 将于108日和9暂时关闭他们的电子服务业务,以便进行维修。

* 据《雅加达环球报》报道,印尼金融服务管理局已成立团队负责准备确立该国金融科技行业的监管框架。金融科技被视为对该国的金融包容性项目具有部门意义上的重要性。

* 据《雅加达邮报》报道,印尼央行暗示可能会通过降息刺激经济,但也表示货币宽松可通过其他方式执行。

* 据《Berita Harian报道,马来西亚国际贸易与工业部长Mustapa Mohamed 表示,预计2016马来西亚经济增速在4%-4.5%间。

* 据《菲律宾星报》引述世界银行的一份报告报道,菲律宾的投资和财政收入在有利环境下实现增长,该国在东亚和太平洋发展中国家当中具有"最强劲的增长前景"

南亚

* 据《印度商业线报》引述印度储备银行的指导规定报道,该央行允许小金融银行的遗留贷款免于执行当前的银行同业拆借上限。这项豁免规定有效期至三年的贷款期限到期为止。

* 据《印度商业线报》报道,印度储备银行计划放宽支行的定义,将自动ATM机、超小型支行、定点商业网点和卫星办事处纳入到分行的范畴,此举将使银行在没有银行的农村地区实现25%的支行配额。

* 据《印度报业托拉斯》报道,由于移动钱包注册时在"了解你的客户"管理方面表现出来的松懈性,印度央行一位官员表达了对相关服务的严重关注。移动钱包通常需要一个手机号码,并且很少有客户的信息。

* 据《Business Standard》引述Religare的一份报告报道,第三季度银行的盈利能力可能会进一步提高,因为国债收益实现增长。但是,预计不良资产的压力会影响整体业绩。

澳大利亚和新西兰

* 据《澳洲人报》引述National Australia Bank Ltd.负责人Andrew ThorburnWestpac Banking Corp.负责人Brian Hartzer观点报道,让银行高管对下属的行为负责及实施严格的惩罚将对行业产生不良影响,并且可能会打击创新。

* 据《澳洲人报》报道,据说澳洲最大的银行要求他们的员工向客户提供诸如理财建议、保险产品等各种产品,以完成销售目标。该行认为,他们的柜员有让客户签约的义务。

Sally Wang, Jonathan Cheah, Jaekwon Lim Santibhap Ussavasodhi对此文亦有贡献。

《每日必读》的截稿时间为香港时间早上630分。一些外部链接可能需要额外订阅。


Listen: Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Mar. 20 2019 — Some fintech companies are making hay with digital platforms that tout their differences with banks, even though they are often offering virtually the same products. In the episode, we discuss with colleagues Rachel Stone and Kiah Haslett the deposit strategies employed by the likes of Chime, Aspiration and other incumbent players such as Ally Financial, Discover and Capital One. Those efforts conjure up memories of a Don Draper pitch in Mad Men and likely will enjoy continued success.

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Technology, Media & Telecom
Broadband Only Homes Skyrocket In 2018 Validating Top MSOs Connectivity Pivot

Highlights

The segment stood at an estimated 23.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2018, accounting for 24% of all wireline high-speed data homes.

The following post comes from Kagan, a research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

To learn more about our TMT (Technology, Media & Telecommunications) products and/or research, please request a demo.

Mar. 20 2019 — The U.S. broadband-only home segment logged its largest net adds on record in 2018, validating Comcast Corp.'s and Charter Communications Inc.'s moves to make broadband, or connectivity, the keystone of their cable communication businesses.

The size and momentum of the segment also put in perspective the recent high-profile online-video video announcements by the top two cable operators as well as AT&T Inc.'s WarnerMedia shake-up and plans to go toe-to-toe with Netflix in the subscription video-on-demand arena in the next 12 months.

We estimate that wireline broadband households not subscribing to traditional multichannel, or broadband-only homes, rose by nearly 4.3 million in 2018, topping the gains from the previous year by roughly 22%. Overall, the segment stood at an estimated 23.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2018, accounting for 24% of all wireline high-speed data homes.

For perspective, broadband-only homes stood at an estimated 11.3 million a mere four years ago, accounting for 13% of residential cable and telco broadband subscribers.

The once all-powerful, must-have live linear TV model, which individuals and families essentially treated as a utility upon moving into a new residence, increasingly is viewed as too expensive and unwieldy in the era of affordable, nimble internet-based video alternatives. This has resulted in a sizable drop in penetration of occupied households.

As a result, continued legacy cord cutting is baked in and broadband-only homes are expected to continue to rise at a fast clip, with the segment's momentum in the next few years compounded by Comcast's, Charter's and AT&T's ambitious moves into online-video territory.

Note: we revised historical broadband-only home estimates as part of our fourth-quarter 2018, following restatements of historical telco broadband subscriber figures and residential traditional multichannel subscriber adjustments.

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Q4'18 multichannel video losses propel full-year drop to edge of 4 million

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Q4'18 multiproduct analysis sheds more light on video's fall from grace

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Watch: Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

Mar. 19 2019 — Steve Piper shares the outlook for U.S. power markets, discussing capacity retirements and whether continued development of wind and solar power plants may mitigate the generation shortfall.

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Credit Analysis
2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

Mar. 15 2019 — On November 20, 2018, a joint event hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence and S&P Global Ratings took place in London, focusing on credit risk and 2019 perspectives.

Pascal Hartwig, Credit Product Specialist, and I provided a review of the latest trends observed across non-financial corporate firms through the lens of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s statistical models.1 In particular, Pascal focused on the outputs produced by a statistical model that uses market information to estimate credit risk of public companies; if you want to know more, you can visit here.

I focused on an analysis of how different Brexit scenarios may impact the credit risk of European Union (EU) private companies that are included on S&P Capital IQ platform.

Before, this, I looked at the evolution of their credit risk profile from 2013 to 2017, as shown in Figure 1. Scores were generated via Credit Analytics’ PD Model Fundamentals Private, a statistical model that uses company financials and other socio-economic factors to estimate the PD of private companies globally. Credit scores are mapped to PD values, which are based on/derived from S&P Global Ratings Observed Default Rates.

Figure 1: EU private company scores generated by PD Model Fundamentals Private, between 2013 and 2017.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.2 As of October 2018.

For any given year, the distribution of credit scores of EU private companies is concentrated below the ‘a’ level, due to the large number of small revenue and unrated firms on the S&P Capital IQ platform. An overall improvement of the risk profile is visible, with the score distribution moving leftwards between 2013 and 2017. A similar picture is visible when comparing companies by country or industry sector,3 confirming that there were no clear signs of a turning point in the credit cycle of private companies in any EU country or industry sector. However, this view is backward looking and does not take into account the potential effects of an imminent and major political and economic event in the (short) history of the EU: Brexit.

To this purpose, S&P Global Market Intelligence has developed a statistical model: the Credit Analytics Macro-scenario model enables users to study how potential future macroeconomic scenarios may affect the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU private companies. This model was developed by looking at the historical evolution of S&P Global Ratings’ rated companies under different macroeconomic conditions, and can be applied to smaller companies after the PD is mapped to a S&P Global Market Intelligence credit score.

“Soft Brexit” (Figure 2): This scenario is based on the baseline forecast made by economists at S&P Global Ratings and is characterized by a gentle slow-down of economic growth, a progressive monetary policy tightening, and low yet volatile stock-market growth.4

Figure 2: “Soft Brexit” macro scenario.5

Source: S&P Global Ratings Economists. As of October 2018.

Applying the Macro-scenario model, we analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over a three-year period from 2018 to 2020, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 3):
    • The median credit risk score within specific industry sectors (Aerospace & Defense, Pharmaceuticals, Telecoms, Utilities, and Real Estate) shows a good degree of resilience, rising by less than half a notch by 2020 and remaining comfortably below the ‘b+’ threshold.
    • The median credit score of the Retail and Consumer Products sectors, however, is severely impacted, breaching the high risk threshold (here defined at the ‘b-’ level).
    • The remaining industry sectors show various dynamics, but essentially remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 3: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

  • Country Analysis (Figure 4):
    • Although the median credit risk score may not change significantly in certain countries, the associated default rates need to be adjusted for the impact of the credit cycle.6 The “spider-web plot” shows the median PD values for private companies within EU countries, adjusted for the credit cycle. Here we include only countries with a minimum number of private companies within the Credit Analytics pre-scored database, to ensure a robust statistical analysis.
    • Countries are ordered by increasing level of median PD, moving clock-wise from Netherlands to Greece.
    • Under a soft Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2018 and 2020, but still remains below the yellow threshold (corresponding to a ‘b+’ level).
    • Interestingly, Italian private companies suffer more than their Spanish peers, albeit starting from a slightly lower PD level in 2017.

Figure 4: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

“Hard Brexit” (Figure 5): This scenario is extracted from the 2018 Stress-Testing exercise of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Bank of England.7 Under this scenario, both the EU and UK may go into a recession similar to the 2008 global crisis. Arguably, this may seem a harsh scenario for the whole of the EU, but a recent report by the Bank of England warned that a disorderly Brexit may trigger a UK crisis worse than 2008.8

Figure 5: “Hard Brexit” macro scenario.9

Sources:”2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (European Banking Authority, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies“ (Bank of England, March 2018).

Also in this case, we apply the Macro-scenario model to analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over the same three-year period, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 6):
    • Despite all industry sectors being severely impacted, the Pharmaceuticals and Utilities sectors remain below the ‘b+’ level (yellow threshold).
    • Conversely, the Airlines and Energy sectors join Retail and Consumer Products in the “danger zone” above the ‘b-’ level (red threshold).
    • The remaining industry sectors will either move into or remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 6: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

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  • Country Analysis (Figure 7):
    • Under a hard Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2017 and 2020, entering the intermediate risk band and suffering even more than its Irish peers.
    • Notably, by 2020 the French private sector may suffer more than the Italian private sector, reaching the attention threshold (here shown as a red circle, and corresponding to a ‘b-’ level).
    • While it is hard to do an exact like-for-like comparison, it is worth noting that our conclusions are broadly aligned with the findings from the 48 banks participating in the 2018 stress-testing exercise, as recently published by the EBA:10 the major share of 2018-2020 new credit risk losses in the stressed scenario will concentrate among counterparties in the UK, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany (leaving aside the usual suspects, such as Greece, Portugal, etc.).

Figure 7: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In conclusion: In Europe, the private companies’ credit risk landscape does not yet signal a distinct turning point, however Brexit may act as a pivot point and a catalyst for a credit cycle inversion, with an intensity that will be dependent on the Brexit type of landing (i.e., soft versus hard).

1 S&P Global Ratings does not contribute to or participate in the creation of credit scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
2 Lowercase nomenclature is used to differentiate S&P Global Market Intelligence credit scores from the credit ratings issued by S&P Global Ratings.
3 Not shown here.
4 Measured via Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth, Long-term / Short-term (L/S) European Central Bank Interest Rate Spread, and FTSE100 or STOXX50 stock market growth, respectively.
5 Macroeconomic forecast for 2018-2020 (end of year) by economists at S&P Global Ratings; the baseline case assumes the UK and the EU will reach a Brexit deal (e.g. a “soft Brexit”).
6 When the credit cycle deteriorates (improves), default rates are expected to increase (decrease).
7 Source: “2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (EBA, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies”. (Bank of England, March 2018).
8 Source: “EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability – A response to the House of Commons Treasury Committee”. (Bank of England, November 2018).
9 As a hard Brexit scenario, we adopt the stressed scenario included in the 2018 stress testing exercise and defined by the EBA and the Bank of England.
10 See, for example, Figure 18 in “2018 EU-Wide Stress Test Result” (EBA November 2018), found at:https://eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/2419200/2018-EU-wide-stress-test-Results.pdf

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2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market-Driven View

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