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Warmer weather helps support power dailies despite gas losses

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Warmer weather helps support power dailies despite gas losses

Supportedby higher load forecasts, the price of power at most next-day U.S. marketsmoved higher Tuesday, Oct. 11, with gains exceeding $5 in Texas and approaching$10 in the Midwest.

Containinggains, spot gas markets fell as much as 10 cents across most of the U.S. andeven more in the Northeast as a six-day rally in gas futures prices came to anend with the front-month contract down 3.8 cents at $3.237/MMBtu.

Lendingsupport is a depleted supply of nuclear power as the refueling and maintenanceseason begins to peak. Total U.S. plant availability early Oct. 11 waspegged at 78.92%, anear 11-month low.

ERCOT dailies rebound withtemperatures

AsTexas begins to heat up, next-day power prices in ERCOT followed temperaturesand demand forecasts higher, even as spot gas prices sank.

Dailiesat ERCOT North were pegged in the low to mid-$30s, up about $6 on the day,while day-ahead markets added anywhere from $5 to more than $15. DAMs averaged$31.35 at ERCOT North, $32.17 at ERCOT West, $37.63 at ERCOT South and $45.34at ERCOT Houston.

"Wednesdaywill be the hottest day of the work week. And humid," ERCOT meteorologistChris Coleman wrote in an Oct. 10 report, pointing to temperatures well intothe 90s. ERCOT demand is projected to hit 54,424 MW on Wednesday, up more than5,000 MW from Tuesday's forecast high.

Spotgas at El Paso Permian was down almost 10 cents to near $2.75/MMBtu. Henry Hubin Louisiana was flat near $3.15/MMBtu.

Firm demand, spot gas gainssupport Midwest power prices

Supportedby firm demand forecasts and strong spot gas prices, power values in theMidwest continued higher Tuesday.

Dealsat the PJM AEP-Dayton hub in Ohio were spotted in the low to mid-$30s, up $1 or$2, but action at the MISO Indiana hub was livelier with the hub up close to$10 in a range from the low $40s to near $50.

Loadin the PJM AEP region is seen peaking at 14,649 MW on Wednesday while load inPJM ComEd is expected to crest at 11,851 MW, each up about 250 MW from Tuesday'sprojected peak.

Powerprices also found lift from a near 10-cent gain for spot gas prices at theChicago market, which averaged near $3.10/MMBtu.

East markets flat, higherwith load support

Powerdeals for Wednesday in the eastern U.S. were higher Tuesday amid firm load.

TheNew England Mass hub and PJM West hub in the mid-Atlantic saw gains exceed $3,with Mass hub approaching the mid-$20s and PJM West pegged in the upper $30s.However, New York markets were steadier with Zone A in the low to mid-$30s andZone G pegged in the low $20s.

Day-aheadmarkets also moved mostly higher with Mass hub up almost $5 to an average of$28.19 and with New York Zones G and J up close to $2 each to averages at $21.87and $22.24, respectively. DAMs in New York Zone A, however, tumbled more than$11 to an average at $31.10.

Inthe Northeast, demand in New England should peak at 15,100 MW on Wednesdaywhile load in New York is forecast to hit 18,303 MW, each up less than 200 MWfrom Tuesday. In the mid-Atlantic, PJM Western region load is projected to top47,600 MW on Wednesday while PJM Mid-Atlantic demand is called to reach 31,005MW, each up more than 500 MW.

Spotgas prices in the Northeast, already the lowest across the country, fell harderwith Tetco M3 down close to 10 cents and Transco Zone 6 New York off more than25 cents. Tetco M3 was valued below $1/MMBtu while Transco Z6 NY was just above$1/MMBtu.

West markets mixed asNorthwest hubs push higher

Powerprices in the western U.S. moved mixed Tuesday as hubs in the Northwest pushedhigher against losses in California and the Southwest.

Mid-Columbiain Washington added about $3 in the mid- to upper $20s. COB kept the gains atless than $1 with deals in the high $20s.

InCalifornia, where load should hold steady to Tuesday's high near 31,000 MW,deals for Wednesday were down $2 or more. North Path-15 averaged just above $35while South Path-15 was heard in the low $30s.

Inthe Southwest, Palo Verde was down less than $2 while Mead was off less than $1with both in the high $20s.

Spotgas markets offered pressure with Malin down more than 5 cents to near$2.85/MMBtu and SoCal Border down more than 10 cents to below $2.90/MMBtu.

Market prices and included industry data are current as ofthe time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed marketdata, including power, natural gas and coal index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.