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EIA drilling data shows signs of a shale production slowdown

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EIA drilling data shows signs of a shale production slowdown

Low oil and gas prices may finally be taking hold on U.S. production, as the Energy Information Administration's latest Drilling Productivity Report projects two major basins in decline in October with growth slowing in others.

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According to the EIA, the Eagle Ford Shale and the Anadarko Basin are projected to see production declines through October, placing both in multi-month downturns. The Anadarko Basin has seen production decline every month save one since April, when it produced 586,296 barrels of oil per day and approximately 7.74 Bcf/d of natural gas. For October, the EIA predicts oil production of just over 549,000 bbl/d and gas production of 7.41 Bcf/d in the Anadarko.

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The Eagle Ford's production was relatively flat from June to September, but the EIA is projecting a slight, but noticeable, step back for October. After hovering around 1.39 million bbl/d and 6.75 Bcf/d of oil and gas production for four months, the EIA expects oil production to fall to 1.37 million bbl/d and gas production to drop to 6.73 Bcf/d.

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Elsewhere around the country, the pace of growth appears to be ebbing. Production in the Bakken Shale is expected to increase by just 1,719 bbl/d from September to October to 1.47 million bbl/d, while gas production is expected to remain almost constant. Gas production in the Haynesville Shale, which grew by more than 1 Bcf/d from January to August, is expected to increase by a little more than 100,000 Mcf/d.

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Even Appalachia appears to be seeing a slight slowdown in gas production growth. The EIA projects the region, which had seen production grow at a rate of about 400,000 Mcf/d for the past several months, will add about half that amount from September to October as production exceeds 32.8 Bcf/d.

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One play that seems to be bucking the trend is the mighty Permian Basin, which the EIA projects will continue to grow at a consistent pace in comparison to previous months. The Permian's oil production is predicted to grow from 4.41 million bbl/d in September to 4.48 million bbl/d in October, in line with growth for much of 2019. Gas production will also continue to grow, with the Permian expected to break the 15 Bcf/d plateau for the first time in October.

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The number of drilling but uncompleted wells around the country appears to be on the decline as well. The EIA projects there will be a total of 7,950 drilled but uncompleted wells nationwide in October, down nearly 300 from its high point in March and the lowest level seen since November 2018.