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AM Power Report: Dailies could end week mixed with choppy load


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AM Power Report: Dailies could end week mixed with choppy load

Powerprices at the dailymarkets could end the workweek aimed in diverging directions Friday, April 8,as market participants look to jumbled demand expectations for the start of theworkweek but with recent sharp gains for natural gas futures.

in the priorsession to end the day back above $2.000/MMBtu, front-month May natural gasfutures were aimed slightly higher early Friday ahead of the opening bell,moving at $2.027/MMBtu, up 0.9 cent. Speculative buying driven byforecasts for colder-than-normal weather for April is supporting gains.

Day-ahead natural gas prices are likely to draw support fromboth the weather projections and the recent strength in futures, but could comeunder some pressure amid the inclusion of the lower-load weekend days in thetrading product Friday.

Onthe demand side, forecasts suggest mixed load at the start of the new workweekApril 11.

Inthe Northeast, demand projections are aimed higher, as load in New England isexpected to hit a high at 14,530 MW on Friday and 15,490 MW on April 11, whileNew York demand is called to reach 18,556 MW on Friday and 18,826 MW on April11. In the Mid-Atlantic, outlooks indicate varied demand, as load in the PJMWestern region is seen cresting at 50,162 MW on Friday and 48,720 MW at thereturn of the workweek, while demand in PJM Mid-Atlantic is projected to peakat 30,545 MW on Friday and 32,250 MW on April 11.

Inthe Midwest, the PJM Interconnection anticipates weaker demand, as PJM AEPregion load is seen reaching highs at 16,451 MW on Friday and 15,796 MW onApril 11, while PJM ComEd demand is forecast to see highs at 11,435 MW onFriday and 11,244 MW on April 11.

Inthe South, the ERCOT operator expects load to rise to touch a high near 37,900MW on Friday and 44,868 MW at the start of the new business week. In the West,demand in CAISO is forecast to top out at 27,358 MW on Friday and 25,334 MW onApril 9, but should find some support come April 11 as full industrial andcommercial load recovers at the start of the new business week.

Inforward activity, the price of power for May delivery favored the upside acrossthe board April 7, in tandem with front-month natural gas futures that notchedgains on the session to ultimately signal a boost in fueling costs.

Inthe East, gains on either side of $1 took month-ahead power pricing to roughly$33 at NEPOOL-Mass and to near $34 at PJM West, while price action for Junepower delivery was pegged in the mid-$30s at both hubs.

Inthe Midwest, front-month power transactions added more or less 80 cents at thePJM markets to average at almost $32 at the AD hub and at above $28 at theNorthern Illinois hub, as similar deals at MISO Indiana rose by more than $2 toan index at around $30. Looking ahead, power trades for June at the three hubslikewise ran through the high $20s to the low $30s.

Inthe South, the ERCOT markets saw power values for May advance by a little morethan $1 across the board to indexes spread from roughly $24 to $26, as regionalpricing for June power delivery spanned the high $20s to the low $30s.

Inthe West, California saw power parcels for May delivery lifted by around $1 indeals carried out at near $23 at North Path-15 and bolstered by 30 cents intrades done at almost $19 at South Path-15, as Mid-Columbia May climbed by alittle more than 30 cents to roughly $10 and Palo Verde May ascended by $1 toan index also at close to $19. Power products for June were transacted in thelow $10s at Mid-Columbia and in the low $20s elsewhere in the region.

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Marketprices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication andare subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power andnatural gasindex prices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.