While the U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union isunlikely to have a significant near-term impact on corporate defaults,continued pressure on commodities prices is driving the default rate higher.
Moody's said July 12 that the speculative-grade default ratefor U.S. metals and mining issuers will reach 10.2% in the coming year, and upto 8.6% for U.S. oil and gas companies.
The wider U.S. speculative-grade default rate hit itshighest level since August 2010 in the second quarter, climbing to 5.1% from4.4% in the first quarter. The default rate isexpected to reach 6.4% by the end of the year.
In Europe, the default rate edged down to 2.4% from 2.5%,with Moody's forecasting a further decline to 1.9% by the end of the year.
Globally, the 12-month speculative-grade default rate closedat 4.5% in the second quarter, up from 4.0% in the prior quarter and 2.5% ayear ago.
Moody's expects that the rate will rise to 4.9% by the endof the year, before falling to 4.2% in a year from now.