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AM Power Report: Dailies could move in opposing directions amid varied fundamentals

Powerprices for day-aheaddelivery could chop around Wednesday, July 13, as traders look to jumbleddemand forecasts for the latter part of the workweek alongside indecisiveactivity at the natural gas futures arena.

in the previoussession, front-month August natural gas futures were extending higher earlyWednesday ahead of the opening bell. At last glance, the contract was up 3.9cents to $2.773/MMBtu on short covering ahead of the Thursday release of thelatest round of weekly storage data from the U.S. Energy InformationAdministration. Market analysts and traders are expecting an average injectionnear the 50-Bcf mark for the week ended July 8. This will compare to a 77-Bcffive-year-average injection and a 95-Bcf addition reported for the same week in2015.

Lookingat demand, grid operators anticipate diverging load in the latter part of theworkweek.

Inthe Northeast, demand in New England could decline as it is projected to toucha high near 21,600 MW on Wednesday and 21,330 MW on Thursday, while New Yorkload is expected to top out at 27,201 MW on Wednesday and 28,349 MW onThursday. To the south, PJM Western region demand is poised to slump as it isseen peaking at 74,653 MW on Wednesday and 69,883 MW on Thursday, while load inPJM Mid-Atlantic could climb to crest at 46,050 MW on Wednesday and 52,232 MWin the latter part of the business week.

Inthe Midwest, weaker load is in store, as demand in PJM AEP region is called toreach 21,246 MW on Wednesday and 20,100 MW on Thursday, while PJM ComEd load isforecast to hit a high at 20,615 MW on Wednesday and 18,649 MW on Thursday.

InTexas, load in ERCOT should near 66,964 MW on Wednesday and 68,280 MW in thelatter part of the workweek, joining the uptrend.

InCalifornia, the CAISO operator sees demand reaching highs at 38,850 MW onWednesday and 40,260 MW on Thursday.

Alongthe forward curve, price action for August power delivery was choppy July 12,as the daily seesaw activity of late at the natural gas futures arena suggestedfluctuating fueling costs.

Inthe East, losses of between 60 cents and 70 cents steered front-month powerpricing to indexes in the low $40s at both NEPOOL-Mass and PJM West. Powervalues for September were pegged in the low $30s in New England and in themid-$30s at PJM West.

Inthe Midwest, the power offering for August was quoted in the high $30s overallin trades up by more than $1 day on the day at PJM AD but down 20 cents at PJMNorthern Illinois and off a little more than 10 cents at MISO Indiana. Alongthe forward curve, power parcels for September across the three hubs weretransacted in the low $30s.

Inthe South, price activity for month-ahead power at the ERCOT markets addedabout 90 cents across the board to average in the mid- to high $70s, asregional pricing for September power delivery spanned the low $30s.

Inthe West, California saw power deals for August retreat by about 30 cents at NorthPath-15 and deflate by near 90 cents at South Path-15 to indexes in the high$30s, as Mid-Columbia August advanced by roughly 30 cents to the high $20s andPalo Verde August rose by almost 70 cents to the low $30s. Trades for Septemberpower were carried out in the mid- to high $30s in California and in the mid-to high $20s elsewhere in the region.

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Marketprices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication andare subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas indexprices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.