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Most power dailies open new workweek on the downside


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Most power dailies open new workweek on the downside

Next-day power prices in the U.S. were biased lowerMonday, April 11, with the downtick at most hubs driven by outlooks suggestingweaker Tuesday load and a lack of support due to losses in spot natural gasprices.

After extendingprior-week losses overnight, the front-month May natural gas futures contractcontinued to crumble and closed the session down 7.8 cents at $1.912/MMBtu.Likewise, spot natural gas markets favored the downside, with trades atTETCO-M3 defying the trend.

In other supply, total U.S. dropped to84.94% early April 11, down from 87.24% on April 8 but holding above the 83.89%level recorded on the same day a year ago.

Midwestmarkets notch gains despite mixed demand and softer gas prices

Power packages in the Midwest notched modest gainsMonday, in spite of pressures from varied demand outlooks and mostly lower spotnatural gas prices. MISO Indiana saw most of the session's action, with powerexchanged in the mid-$30s, up by a dollar from April 8.

PJM regions in the Midwest anticipate varied load tokick off the new workweek, with the PJM AEP region projecting a Tuesday high at15,471 MW, down close to 300 MW from Monday, while demand in the PJM ComEdregion is called to reach 11,615 MW on Tuesday, adding more than 100 MW fromthe prior day.

Spot gas markets ticked lower, with gas trades atChicago Citygates and NNG Demarc dropping 7 cents to 9 cents from April 8 tofall to averages both below $1.90/MMBtu.

Eastdailies jumbled with lower load and mixed gas prices.

Next-day power markets in the East were varied Monday,owing to downward pressures from soft Tuesday demand forecasts and limitedsupport from diverging spot natural gas prices.

Next-day deals at NEPOOL-Mass failed to hold on toprior-week gains, with power traded in the high $20s and low $30s, falling froman April 8 index of $40.00, while transactions at PJM West defied lower loadand added less than a dollar in the mid-$30s.

Day-ahead markets in the Northeast were biased higher,with DAMs in New York noting $2 to $3 increases to post averages of $40.31 atNew York Zone A, $31.41 at New York Zone G and $32.16 at New York Zone J. DAMdeals at NEPOOL-Mass, on the flipside, shed more than $2 to average $26.37.

Spot gas markets ran in different directions, with gastrades at TETCO-M3 adding around 5 cents from April 8 to average about$1.65/MMBtu, while transactions at Transco Zone 6 New York shed more than acent and averaged below $1.70/MMBtu.

Load outlooks in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic areaimed lower, with demand in New England potentially seeing a high at 15,090 MWon Tuesday, down little more than 40 MW from Monday, while load in New Yorkcould crest at 18,239 MW on Tuesday, slipping more than 500 MW from the dayprior.

The PJM Mid-Atlantic region expects peak Tuesdaydemand to hit 31,269 MW, down close to 850 MW from Monday, while load in thePJM Western region may top out at 48,250 MW on Tuesday, shedding more than 200MW from the previous day.

ERCOTdailies falter amid lack of fundamental support

Next-day power parcels in Texas took a small step backMonday, as dailies were depressed by sluggish Tuesday demand forecasts and adowntick in spot natural gas prices.

ERCOT estimates peak Tuesday load to run up to 39,051MW, down more than 4,600 MW from Monday. Uninspired by demand, next-day dealsat ERCOT North were done in the low to mid-$20s, shedding roughly $2 from April8.

Day-ahead markets ran counter to softer load and edgedhigher, with DAM deals in ERCOT Houston, ERCOT North and ERCOT South adding $7to $8 on the session to rise to averages of $24.69, $23.54 and $24.42,respectively; while a daily gain of about $10 was seen at ERCOT West, whichaveraged $23.72.

Spot gas markets favored losses, with gas deals at theHenry Hub posting a loss of around 10 cents from April 8 to average below$1.90/MMBtu, while trades at El Paso Permian shed about 2 cents on the sessionand averaged around $1.70/MMBtu.

MostWest markets ease, while North Path-15 dailies firm

Trading activity in the West was biased slightly lowerMonday, as losses in spot natural gas markets counterbalanced modest supportfrom slightly stronger Tuesday demand forecasts.

Load in California is set to rise, with the CAISO gridoperator projecting Tuesday demand to peak at 28,150 MW, gaining roughly 200 MWfrom Monday.

In the Northwest, power at Mid-Columbia was traded fora daily loss of more than $2 in the low teens, while deals at COB shed lessthan a dollar on the session in the mid- to high teens. Hubs in the Southwestcontinued the trend, with Palo Verde and Mead transactions both done in thehigh teens, with the former down by less than a dollar from April 8, while thelatter lost roughly $2 from April 8. Power markets in California divergedslightly, with South Path-15 shedding about $2 from April 8 in the high teens,while deals at North Path-15 defied the regional downtick and added less than adollar in the mid-$20s.

Spot gas markets notched losses, with gas trades atMalin, PG&E Citygates and SoCal Border dropping 3 cents to 4 cents on thesession to post averages below $1.75/MMBtu, lower than $1.90/MMBtu and around$1.75/MMBtu, respectively.

Market prices and included industry data are currentas of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailedmarket data, including power,natural gas andcoal index prices, as well asforwards andfutures, visit our Commodities Pages.