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Planned US natural gas combined-cycle capacity totals more than 89,000 MW

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Planned US natural gas combined-cycle capacity totals more than 89,000 MW

Planned natural gas combined-cycle, or NGCC, generating projects totaled more than 89,000 MW of capacity as of Nov. 7, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis.

The bulk of this capacity was in the early stages of development, with 2,805 MW in the announced phase and 44,670 MW in the early development stage. But another 28,280 MW are already under construction, and 13,538 MW more are considered in advanced development. As projects move through the stages of development, they have a higher chance of coming to fruition, with the ones under construction most likely to materialize.

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Projects with known online dates, from this year through 2022 and beyond, had a total of 77,637 MW of capacity. Most planned capacity is scheduled to come online through 2020. For 2018, 18,656 MW are scheduled to come online, with 85% already under construction.

More than 45% of the planned NGCC capacity, totaling 40,656 MW, is to be located in the PJM Interconnection market. If all that capacity is built, it will more than double the 35,168 MW of NGCC capacity that was operating at the end of 2016.

Among ISOs and RTOs, ISO New England had the highest utilization of gas facilities. Gas accounted for 40% of the region's capacity, producing about 50% of the region's net generation.

The two largest NGCC facilities currently under construction are both in Florida, and both will supply customers of regulated utilities. The Okeechobee Clean Energy Center Unit 1, in Okeechobee County, Fla., was the largest project under construction, with planned capacity of 1,723 MW. The facility is composed of three combined-cycle combustion turbine units each with 377 MW of capacity and a combined-cycle steam turbine unit with 593 MW. All the units are slated to come online by June 2019. The plant is owned by NextEra Energy Inc. through its utility Florida Power & Light Co. and is estimated to cost $1.8 billion.

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The second-largest project under construction is the 1,640-MW Citrus County CC in Citrus County, Fla., owned by Duke Energy Corp. through its utility Duke Energy Florida LLC. This is a two-phased project expected to finish in June and December 2018. Each project phase is composed of three units — two combined-cycle combustion turbine units at 270 MW of capacity each and a combined-cycle steam turbine with 280 MW of capacity. Estimated costs for the whole project are $1.5 billion.

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Private developer FGE Power ranked first among NGCC developers in the amount of planned project capacity, with almost 5,000 MW spread across three facilities the company is currently developing in Texas: the FGE Eagle Pines Project with 3,450 MW; and the FGE Texas I Project and FGE Texas II Project, each with 721 MW. The first phase of each of these developments is projected to be completed in 2020, though construction has yet to begin.

NextEra followed, with over 3,000 MW of planned capacity. This total includes the Okeechobee project plus the FPL Dania Beach Clean Energy Center and Gateway Energy Center, all of which will serve Florida Power & Light customers. The company has invested heavily in gas facilities, in part by replacing older plants with larger and more efficient facilities, and has more than 17,000 MW of owned gas-fired capacity.

NGCC capacity additions in 2016 increased by 45% from the 4,244 MW added in 2015, due in part to sustained low gas prices that continue to make such projects an attractive investment.

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The annual average gas spot price at the Henry Hub was $2.51/MMBtu in 2016, slightly below the 2015 average of $2.63/MMBtu. The monthly average spot price in 2017 has risen some, averaging $3.00/MMBtu from January through October. Looking ahead, the monthly futures price for the hub fluctuates from $2.70/MMBtu to $3.30/MMBtu for delivery terms in 2018 through 2022.

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