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US day-ahead markets move mixed following choppy load forecasts

Editor's Note: Please be advised that S&P Global Market Intelligence will no longer publish daily articles on price trends in the U.S. natural gas, electricity and emissions markets beginning June 1, 2018. Pricing data for these energy markets will continue to be available on the Market Intelligence platform.

Mixed moves defined day-ahead power trading activity across the U.S. on Wednesday, May 30, as values mirrored outlooks of varied Thursday demand.

In natural gas futures, the new front-month July contract spent its debut session on the downside and closed 1.8 cents lower to $2.885/MMBtu.

Following the loss of Nebraska Public Power District's Cooper Nuclear Station in Nebraska, total U.S. nuclear plant availability slipped to 96.42% early May 30.

AccuWeather.com said in a May 30 forecast that "High temperatures are expected to steadily climb across the South Central states this week," which may support cooling demand in the affected regions.

Day-ahead markets mixed; New York Zone A values top $100

Power values across day-ahead markets in the East were varied Wednesday following forecasts of diverging Thursday demand.

At day-ahead markets, power at New York Zone A rose by more than $25 and averaged $124.63, while values at the New England Mass hub added around $3 and averaged $29.46. On the other hand, DAMs at New York Zone J slipped by roughly $2 and averaged $30.41, while packages at New York Zone G eased and averaged $29.51.

Demand in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic is expected to diverge towards the latter part of the workweek. Load in New England may top out at 14,800 MW on Wednesday and 14,600 MW on Thursday, while demand in New York should crest at 20,798 MW on Wednesday and 19,997 MW on Thursday. The PJM Mid-Atlantic region could reach highs of 37,574 MW on Wednesday and 37,559 MW on Thursday, while the PJM Western region should touch peaks of 66,955 MW on Wednesday and 68,180 MW on Thursday.

Texas DAMs varied despite load support

Expectations of strong Thursday demand due to warm weather did little to stop some day-ahead markets in Texas from moving slightly lower Wednesday.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas should near peaks of 67,120 MW on Wednesday and 67,730 MW on Thursday.

At day-ahead markets, packages at ERCOT West added around a dollar and averaged $55.52, while values at ERCOT South were little changed from Tuesday and averaged $57.49. Conversely, DAMs at ERCOT North slipped by $1 to an average at $58.00, while day-ahead power at ERCOT Houston eased to an average at $57.16.

Midwest markets pressured by choppy load forecasts at midweek

Conflicting cues from forecasts of varied Thursday demand pressured hubs in the Midwest on Wednesday.

The PJM AEP region is forecasting highs of 19,988 MW on Wednesday and 19,946 MW on Thursday while the PJM ComEd region should hit peaks of 16,311 MW on Wednesday and 17,841 MW on Thursday.

Western power markets spend midweek session unsupported

Power dailies in the West spent quiet Wednesday session finding no support in outlooks of slack Thursday demand.

The California ISO is calling for peaks of 29,134 MW on Wednesday and 27,908 MW on Thursday.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.