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AM Power Report: Dailies could start week varied amid conflicting fundamentals

Afterposting slight gainson July 15, power dailiescould open the new workweek on a mixed note Monday, July 18, as expectationsfor diverging but generally weaker demand collide with an ongoing uptick at thenatural gas futures complex.

Atlast glance, August natural gas was trading 3.0 cents higher at $2.786/MMBtu,extending the 2.9-cent gainposted ahead of the weekend.

On thedemand side, forecasts suggest varied but predominantly softer load as thefresh workweek unfolds.

Inthe Northeast, demand in New England could see highs at 22,900 MW on Monday and20,120 MW on Tuesday, while load in New York will likely peak at 29,370 MW atthe start of the new workweek and 26,097 MW on Tuesday. In the mid-Atlantic,PJM Western region demand could crest at 71,986 MW on Monday and 69,771 MW onTuesday, while PJM Mid-Atlantic load could hit a high at 53,397 MW on Mondayand 47,834 MW on Tuesday.

Inthe Midwest, demand in the PJM AEP region should near 20,899 MW on Monday and20,355 MW on Tuesday, while load in PJM ComEd could defy the wider decline toreach highs at 18,488 MW at the return of the workweek and 18,811 MW onTuesday.

InTexas, load in ERCOT is called to reach 64,483 MW on Monday and 66,227 MW onTuesday, also running against the broad downtrend.

InCalifornia, CAISO demand will likely touch a high near 35,898 MW on Monday and37,549 MW on Tuesday.

Inforward trade, power transactions for August delivery shed value in much of thecountry ahead of the weekend, even as gains at the natural gas futures arenadrove fueling costs higher.

Inthe East, front-month power prices recoiled by nearly 30 cents at NEPOOL-Massand fell by about 80 cents at PJM West to indexes in the low $40s, as powervalues for September spanned the low $30s in New England and the mid-$30s atPJM West.

Inthe Midwest, power products for August were marked in the high $30s overall indeals down about 60 cents at PJM AD and off 10 cents and 20 cents at PJMNorthern Illinois and MISO Indiana, respectively. Further along the forwardcurve, power packages for September across the three hubs were quoted in thelow $30s.

Inthe South, losses of about 60 cents at the ERCOT markets steered price activityfor August power to indexes spread in the high $60s, as regional pricing forSeptember power ran through the low $30s.

Inthe West, values for prompt-month power climbed by more than 30 cents againstthe wider decline to indexes in the high $30s at both North Path-15 and SouthPath-15 in California, as Palo Verde August likewise defied the broad downtrendby adding almost $2 to average also in the high $30s and Mid-Columbia Augustgave back roughly 10 cents to average in the high $20s. Further out, powerprices for September were spotted in the mid- to high $30s in California and inthe mid- to high $20s elsewhere in the region.

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Market prices and included industry data are currentas of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailedmarket data, including power andnatural gasindex prices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.