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AM Power Report: Dailies poised to decline in week's closing session

dailies could shed valuein the week's closing session Friday, July 8, as the anticipation for softerdemand across the bulk of the country coming off the weekend combines withongoing losses at the natural gas futures arena.

the prior session just0.9 cent lower, front-month August natural gas futures were down1-cent overnight ahead of the market open Friday to $2.767/MMBtu on light profit-takingahead of the weekend.

Asidefrom tracking the recent losses in futures, next-daynatural gas markets are likely to slip in trade Friday, amid the inclusion ofthe lower-load weekend days in the trading package offering pressure.

Onthe demand side, forecasts suggest weaker load in much of the country at thestart of the next workweek on July 11, even as business-related demandtypically rebounds coming off the weekend break.

Inthe Northeast, load in New England is expected to hit a high at 20,750 MW onFriday and 17,750 MW on July 11, while New York demand is called to reach28,842 MW on Friday and 24,845 MW on July 11. In the Mid-Atlantic, load in PJMWestern region is seen cresting at 68,535 MW on Friday and 63,541 MW at thereturn of the workweek, while demand in PJM Mid-Atlantic is projected to peakat 52,412 MW on Friday and 45,498 MW on July 11.

Inthe Midwest, PJM AEP region load is seen reaching highs at 20,769 MW on Fridayand 19,249 MW on July 11, while PJM ComEd demand is forecast to see highs at17,558 MW on Friday and 16,593 MW on July 11.

Inthe South, the ERCOT operator expects load to touch a high near 66,104 MW onFriday and 66,791 MW at the start of the new business week, running against thewider decline.

Inthe West, demand in CAISO is forecast to top out at 34,980 MW on Friday and32,530 MW on July 9, but should rebound on July 11 as full industrial andcommercial load recovers at the start of the new business week.

Inforward trading, the price of power for August delivery was steady to lowerJuly 7, as modest losses at the natural gas future complex implied a slightreduction in fueling costs.

Inthe East, price action for front-month power was near unchanged at NEPOOL-Massbut off about 70 cents at PJM West at indexes in the low $40s, while powervalues for September were spotted in the low $30s in New England and in thehigh $30s at PJM West.

Inthe Midwest, prompt-month power packages notched losses of between 50 cents and60 cents at PJM AD and PJM Northern Illinois but held steady at MISO Indiana intransactions carried out in the high $30s overall, while power parcels forSeptember across the three hubs were seen changing hands in the low $30s.

Inthe South, a downdraft of a little over $1 at the ERCOT markets took priceactivity for August power to indexes spread in the low $80s, as regionalpricing for September power spanned the low to mid-$30s.

Inthe West, trades for August power in California deflated by more than $1 atNorth Path-15 and slid by near 70 cents at South Path-15 to average in the high$30s at both hubs, as Mid-Columbia August slumped by over 30 cents to the high$20s and Palo Verde August faltered by almost $1 to the low $30s. Power dealsfor September were done in the mid- to high $30s in California and in the mid-to high $20s elsewhere in the region.

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Marketprices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication andare subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas indexprices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.