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Power dailies extend losses on slack fundamentals


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Power dailies extend losses on slack fundamentals

A lack of support from declining Friday load forecastsand weaker spot natural gas prices kept most power prices across the countrymoving lower Thursday, Sept. 22.

After reports of a better-than-expected 52-Bcf net injection during the week ended Sept. 16, thefront-month October natural gas futures contract reversed and closed the day below$3/MMBtu at $2.990/MMBtu, down 6.7 cents. Likewise, spot gas markets slipped,with hubs in the Northeast noting the biggest losses.

Eastvalues retreat on declining demand, cheap gas

Power packages in the East slipped further Thursday,with the downside fueled by weak Friday load projections and falling spot gasprices.

At NEPOOL-Mass, next-day deals were done in themid-$30s, down about $5 from Wednesday, while trades at New York Zone G shed about$4 and ranged in the low to mid-$30s. Transactions at PJM West limited lossesto less than a dollar and spanned the low $40s.

Owing to soft load forecasts, day-ahead marketsfloundered. DAMs at New York Zone A fell more than $15 and averaged at $33.71while DAMs at NEPOOL-Mass, New York Zone G and New York Zone J shed $2 to $3from Wednesday and averaged at $37.44, $33.21 and $34.90., respectively.

Demand is expected to fall in both the Northeast andmid-Atlantic. New England is forecast to see Friday load reach 16,890 MW, about1,210 MW lower than Thursday, while demand in New York could touch 22,396 MW onFriday, down roughly 700 MW from Thursday. Friday load in the PJMMid-Atlantic region could crest at 40,057 MW, shedding more than 700 MW fromthe day prior, while demand in the PJM Western region could slip by more than300 MW from Thursday and peak near 63,935 MW on Friday.

Midwestmarkets edge lower with weak load, sagging gas prices

Outlooks calling for subdued Friday demand alongsideretreating spot gas prices depressed power packages in the Midwest on Thursday.

Power at the PJM AEP-Dayton hub changed hands in thelow $40s for a daily loss of about $3, while on-peak deals at MISO Indiana werequoted in the mid-$40s, shedding close to $4 on the session.

Load forecasts in the Midwest are aimed lower with thePJM AEP region called to see a Friday high at 18,414 MW, falling about 1,200 MWfrom Thursday, while the PJM ComEd region is expecting Friday demand to top outat 16,121 MW, off almost 1,500 MW from previous day's forecast high.

Texasvalues unsupported ahead of weekend

A combination of weak Friday demand and flat-to-lowerspot gas prices worked to bog down power values in Texas on Thursday.

ERCOT North saw most of the session's next-day actionwith trades done in the high $20s, down about $3 from Wednesday.

Day-ahead markets mirrored next-day moves andretreated as well, with most hubs falling by about $4 to $5 on the session toaverages of $30.55 at ERCOT Houston, $27.92 at ERCOT North, $29.28 at ERCOTSouth and $27.97 at ERCOT West.

The ERCOT grid operator is anticipating Friday demandto hit 60,139 MW, down about 1,600 MW from Thursday.

Westdailies falter on weekend demand outlooks in revised trade

Forecasts calling for subdued weekend demand typicallyassociated with next-day schedule revisions and mixed-to-lower spot gas pricescounterbalanced robust Friday load forecasts and kept power markets in the Westtethered to the downside Thursday.

Losses of about $1 to $2 were noted in the Southwest,with Palo Verde and Mead each seeing exchanged power in the mid-$20s. InCalifornia, North Path-15 and South Path-15 slipped by $1 to $2 as well, withdeals at the former noted in the mid-$30s while trades at the latter ranged inthe low $30s. Hubs in the Northwest also posted losses of about $1 to $2, withMid-Columbia transactions seen in the low to high $20s, while on-peak deals atCOB were pegged in the high $20s.

The California ISO is expecting Friday demand to peakat 31,151 MW, up about 500 MW from Thursday, but with load possibly fallinghard over the weekend.

Market prices and included industry data are currentas of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailedmarket data, including power,natural gas andcoal index prices, as well asforwards andfutures, visit our Commodities Pages.