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AM Power Report: Dailies could open week lower amid bearish drivers

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AM Power Report: Dailies could open week lower amid bearish drivers

Powerdailies could unwindin the week's opening session Monday, May 2, as expectations for demand erosionin much of the country as the workweek unfolds conspire with a reneweddowndraft at the natural gas futures arena.

on April 29 onnews of a gas pipeline blast in Pennsylvania, front-month June natural gasfutures were extending lower early Monday ahead of the opening bell. At lastlook, the contract was down 4.4 cents to trade near $2.134/MMBtu.

Day-aheadnatural gas markets could open the new week in mixed directions, with prices atsome hubs, like those in the Northeast, likely to garner upside traction fromthe prior-session rally in futures. Other markets could see price losses, intandem with any sustained losses for futures Monday.

Onthe demand side, forecasts suggest predominantly declining load as the newworkweek unfolds.

Inthe Northeast, demand in New England is projected to hold steady at peaks at14,350 MW on Monday and 14,350 MW on Tuesday, while load in New York isexpected to reach highs at 17,902 MW at the start of the fresh workweek and17,233 MW on Tuesday. In the Mid-Atlantic, PJM Western region demand isforecast to hit a high at 47,064 MW on Monday and 45,929 MW on Tuesday, whilePJM Mid-Atlantic load is seen cresting at 31,498 MW on Monday and 30,119 MW onTuesday.

Inthe Midwest, demand in the PJM AEP region is called to reach 15,006 MW onMonday and 14,647 MW on Tuesday, while load in PJM ComEd is projected to topout at 11,172 MW on Monday and 11,048 MW on Tuesday.

Inthe South, ERCOT load is forecast to touch a high near 40,469 MW on Monday and42,699 MW on Tuesday, running against the wider decline. In theWest, CAISO demand is poised to see highs at 29,415 MW at the return of theworkweek and 30,630 MW on Tuesday.

Inforward trade, power for June delivery notched gains across the board ahead ofthe weekend and its debut as the front-month offering at the return of theworkweek, in tandem with June natural gas futures that surged on the sessionand pointed to higher fueling costs. Meanwhile, soon-to-be balance-of-month Maypower had a mixed showing in its final day in the lead slot.

Inthe East, price activity for June power rose by between $2 and $3 to indexes atabove $36 at NEPOOL-Mass and atop $38 at PJM West, as power pricing for Maydeflated by more than $1 to an average above $30 in New England but advanced bynearly 40 cents to an average at almost $33 at PJM West.

Inthe Midwest, power deals for June delivery were also lifted by between $2 and$3 to indexes atop $35 at PJM AD and at roughly $32 at PJM Northern Illinoisand MISO Indiana, as trades for soon-to-be balance-of-month May power werebolstered by about 60 cents to an average above $28 at PJM Northern Illinoisand boosted by nearly 50 cents to indexes on either side of $30 at PJM AD andMISO Indiana.

Inthe South, power values for June at the ERCOT markets climbed by between $1 and$2 to indexes ranging from about $28 to $30. Meanwhile, price action for Maypower shed roughly 20 cents to average at above $22 at ERCOT North and ERCOTWest, but added almost 50 cents to average near $24 at ERCOT South and heldsteady at an index at around $25 at ERCOT Houston.

Inthe West, transactions for June power climbed by more or less $2 overall toindexes above $26 at both North Path-15 and South Path-15 in California, atop$18 at Mid-Columbia and near $24 at Palo Verde. Power trades for May inCalifornia retreated by roughly 70 cents at North Path-15 and slumped by alittle more than 30 cents at South Path-15 to average at around $23 and near$21, respectively, while similar deals held near unchanged at an index at closeto $14 at Mid-Columbia and unraveled about 80 cents to average atop $18 at PaloVerde.

Marketprices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication andare subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power andnatural gasindex prices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.