After tumbling by 20.0 cents to settle at $2.995/MMBtu in the prior session, NYMEX March natural gas futures remained deflated overnight ahead of the Thursday, Feb. 1, open and the midmorning release of the weekly storage data that is poised to show a slower pace of stock erosion. At 7:15 a.m. ET (1215 GMT) the contract was 5.4 cents lower at $2.941/MMBtu.
Weather that trimmed heating demand is expected to have driven a modest withdrawal from inventories when the U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its next weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursday for the week ended Jan. 26.
Traders and analysts anticipate a pull from stocks from 90 Bcf to 116 Bcf in the forthcoming storage data, with consensus formed at a 102-Bcf drawdown. That will compare against a 92-Bcf year-ago withdrawal and the 160-Bcf five-year average draw.
Degree day data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the review week to Jan. 27 show heating degree days were 25.1% fewer than normal for the period.
A pull from stocks at consensus would signal a significant step down in the rate of weekly withdrawals, as it would come on the heels of the 288-Bcf draw during the week ended Jan. 19 that tied the second-highest draw ever recorded. It would leave inventories at 2,194 Bcf, from a current standing at 2,296 Bcf.
Weather in store suggests diverging demand that will likely encourage a fluctuation in the rate of weekly storage draws going forward.
Midrange National Weather Service projections for the six- to 10-day and eight- to 14-day periods show average to below-average temperatures prevailing over the central and eastern U.S., which suggests elevated heating demand that could ramp up the amount of natural gas drawn from storage. Above-average temperatures initially encompass most of the West, western Gulf Coast and a small patch of the Southeast, then recede from parts of the South to be contained to the West.
Longer-range weather projections reflect moderating weather likely to dampen demand anew and allow for a slower rate of storage withdrawals as winter transitions to spring.
The Weather Company expects a warming trend across the southern U.S. and colder weather over the northern tier of the country in the February-through-April period. The NOAA sees a 40% or better chance that warmer conditions will prevail across much of the Northeast, Southeast, south-central U.S., Texas and parts of the West Coast over the same period, as near- to colder-than-normal conditions settle over the Midwest and parts of the Northeast, Northwest and north-central U.S.
Day-ahead natural gas shed value in much of the country Wednesday amid generally declining demand expectations.
Among the key delivery locations, Transco Zone 6 NY spot gas prices led the downtrend with a near $1.02 decrease on average to an index at $4.482/MMBtu. Benchmark Henry Hub next-day gas pricing followed with a roughly 25-cent reduction in deals averaging at $3.344/MMBtu, then PG&E Gate cash gas price action that faltered by almost 12 cents to an index at $2.733/MMBtu and Chicago hub activity that unraveled 6 cents on the session to average at $3.102/MMBtu.

In regional terms, Northeast cash gas pricing logged an approximately $1.09 decline in transactions averaging at $3.986/MMBtu, as Gulf Coast day-ahead gas prices tumbled by about 36 cents on average to an index at $3.177/MMBtu. West Coast spot gas price activity deflated by around 13 cents to average at $2.373/MMBtu, as Midwest next-day gas price action slipped by nearly 9 cents to an index at $2.913/MMBtu.

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