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AM Power Report: Dailies could climb with load outlooks in week's closing session

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AM Power Report: Dailies could climb with load outlooks in week's closing session

Theprice of power atthe daily markets could favor the upside Friday, May 6, amid forecasts forincreased demand in much of the country coming off the weekend.

However,recent weakness in natural gas futures could prove to be a point ofbearishness. Losing 6.5cents in the prior session amid a larger-than-expected into naturalgas storage for the week ended April 29, front-month June natural gas futureswere unchanged early Friday ahead of the opening bell, pegged at $2.076/MMBtu.

Instep with the recent losses for futures and amid the inclusion of thelower-load weekend days in the trading package, most day-ahead natural gasprices are likely to shift lower in trade Friday, which is seen offeringpressure to many daily power markets.

Onthe demand side, most grid operators in the country see stronger load at thestart of the next workweek on May 9, as business-related demand typicallyrebounds coming off the weekend break.

Inthe Northeast, load in New England could hit a high at 13,930 MW on Friday and14,280 MW on May 9, while New York demand could defy the wider uptick to topout at 17,807 MW on Friday and 17,389 MW on May 9. To the south, PJM Westernregion load is poised to reach highs at 45,567 MW on Friday and 46,618 MW onMay 9, while demand in PJM Mid-Atlantic could crest at 29,665 MW on Friday and30,402 MW at the return of the workweek.

Inthe Midwest, load in PJM AEP region is forecast to peak at 14,685 MW on Fridayand 14,942 MW on May 9, while PJM ComEd demand is projected to see highs at11,012 MW on Friday and 11,113 MW on May 9.

Inthe South, ERCOT demand should near 45,443 MW on Friday and 47,630 MW on May 9.In the West, load in CAISO is called to reach 27,100 MW on Fridayand 25,760 MW on May 7, but could find some upside momentum by May 9 amid thetypical post-weekend recovery of full industrial and commercial demand.

Inforward trade, power values for June predominantly recoiled May 5, in line withfront-month natural gas futures that notched losses on the session, signaling areduction in fueling costs.

Inthe East, prompt-month power packages shed a little more than $2 in dealscarried out atop $33 at NEPOOL-Mass and gave back 70 cents in trades done atnear $36 at PJM West, while power parcels for delivery further out to July weretransacted in the high $40s at both hubs.

Inthe Midwest, price activity for June power was off by around 80 cents at anaverage at roughly $33 at PJM AD and down by 10 cents at an index at above $30at PJM Northern Illinois, while MISO Indiana June pricing was weaker by morethan $1 at an index holding near equal footing with PJM Northern Illinois June.Looking ahead, power prices for July across the three hubs spanned the high$30s to the low $40s.

Inthe South, power transactions for June at the ERCOT markets slumped by morethan $1 across the board to indexes spread between $26 and $29, as regionaltrading action for July power ran from the high $30s through the low $40s.

Inthe West, power values for month-ahead delivery in California faltered bynearly 80 cents at North Path-15 and slid by roughly 60 cents at South Path-15to indexes on either side of $26, as front-month power pricing fell by around90 cents to an average at almost $24 at Palo Verde but advanced by about 10cents against the wider decline to an index at above $19 at Mid-Columbia. Powerprices for July were pegged in the mid-$20s at Mid-Columbia and in the low $30selsewhere in the region.

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Marketprices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication andare subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas indexprices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.