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New York markets pre-open: Stock markets resilient as US, China impose tariffs

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New York markets pre-open: Stock markets resilient as US, China impose tariffs

SNL Image

? Asian stocks rise as U.S.-China trade tariffs come into effect.

? Investors await U.S. payroll data.

? Futures point to a lower opening for Wall Street.

? Oil retreats.

European equity markets were little changed after rises in Asia as the U.S. and China imposed tariffs on each other's goods. The U.S. dollar fell and yields were little changed ahead of U.S. payrolls data. Oil prices retreated after an unexpected rise in U.S. crude stockpiles and amid doubts over the fate of Saudi oil giant Aramco's IPO. Futures pointed to S&P 500 opening slightly lower.

China hit back with tariffs on $34 billion of U.S. goods on July 6 after U.S. tariffs on the same amount of Chinese exports took effect. U.S. President Donald Trump said July 5 that the U.S. could eventually impose tariffs on more than $500 billion of Chinese goods, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said the U.S. has sparked the "largest trade war in economic history."

The Euro Stoxx 50 and France's CAC 40 were trading higher, though only by a small margin, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.23% before 7 a.m. ET. Germany's DAX index was also marginally up after German industrial production increased more than expected.

Asian stock markets closed higher as investors seemed to have already priced in the tariffs. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.12% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gained 0.47%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.49%.

The U.S.-China tit-for-tat tariffs "will apply the brakes to a global economy that has less durable momentum than appears to be the case," Robert Carnell, chief economist and head of research, Asia-Pacific, at ING said.

"The economic damage from tariffs could be costly to both nations, and beyond. There is also a risk that this could escalate into a full-blown trade war," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com.

Yields on U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasurys were little changed at 2.836% as of 7:02 a.m. ET, as investors awaited U.S. payrolls data after minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed policymakers increasingly concerned about trade disputes.

The consensus estimate is for nonfarm payrolls to grow by 190,000 in June, and wage growth is expected to improve slightly to 2.8% year over year. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.8%.

"A weak wages number could also feed into a more cautious tone when it comes to the expectation that we may see two more US rate rises this year," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said.

"Even if we do see wages growth picking up to 2.8% as expected, and to 3.0% by August's release ... wages growth will still be historically very low, and very low adjusted for the rate of unemployment, and require no change in Fed policy other than to keep cautiously hiking," said ING's Carnell.

The euro gained 0.15% against the dollar and sterling rose 0.11% amid efforts from the U.K. cabinet to thrash out options for future dealings with the European Union. The U.K. government's plans for financial services after Brexit are not expected to include a commitment to mutual market recognition with the EU, which has been its preferred option until now. The government is set to publish next week a policy document following a July 6 meeting.

The U.S. dollar was little changed against the Japanese yen while the Chinese yuan fell 0.14% against the dollar.

"It's difficult to see such a constructive [employment] report being negative for the USD, though any misses in today's data could spur a wave of profit-taking — given signs that the USD rally looks to be running out of steam," according to ING Research.

Brent crude was down 0.87% to $76.72 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. Saudi Arabia's preparations for the public listing of state oil giant Saudi Arabian Oil Co. have slowed in recent months, raising doubts among government officials and people close to the process about whether the IPO would take place at all, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Among emerging-market currencies, the Mexican peso declined 0.21%, the Turkish lira lost 0.57% and South African rand retreated 0.45%.

Gold slid 0.26% to $1,255.50 an ounce.

More from S&P Global Market Intelligence:

Germany's coalition government reaches agreement on migration

Bank stocks dip in Q2, Wells Fargo bucks trend

Former coal lobbyist to lead US EPA following Pruitt's resignation

The day ahead:

8:30 a.m. ET — U.S. employment situation report (Econoday Consensus: 190,000)

8:30 a.m. ET — U.S. international trade (Econoday Consensus: $43.7 billion deficit)

8:30 a.m. ET — Canada labor force survey (Econoday Consensus: 18,000 employment)

8:30 a.m. ET — Canada merchandise trade (Econoday Consensus: C$2.2 billion deficit)

10:30 a.m. ET — U.S. EIA natural gas report

1 p.m. ET — U.S. Baker-Hughes rig count