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Irregularidades financeiras detectadas no Agrobanco

Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Broadband Only Homes Skyrocket In 2018 Validating Top MSOs Connectivity Pivot

Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View


Irregularidades financeiras detectadas no Agrobanco

* O ministro da Agricultura do Peru, José Manuel Hernández, declarou que o ministério detectou irregularidades financeiras no Banco Agropecuario decorrentes de empréstimos aprovados no governo anterior do país, informou o El Comercio. Muitas das entidades que obtiveram empréstimos do banco no passado não tinham as garantias exigidas pelas normas locais, comentou Hernandez, acrescentando que divulgará publicamente as descobertas em meados de janeiro de 2017.

* A Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos, ou B&MA, recebeu todas as aprovações legais e regulatórias finais para começar a atuar como a principal bolsa de valores da Argentina, informou o o El Cronista. A B&MA, que se prepara para entrar em operação em 2017, será criada pela fusão da Bolsa de Comercio de Buenos Aires com o Merval, mercado de títulos de Buenos Aires.

MÉXICO E AMÉRICA CENTRAL

* O Banco de México prevê que o crescimento econômico do país sofrerá desaceleração no quarto trimestre em comparação com o anterior, segundo a ata da última reunião de política monetária do banco central. A diretoria do banco também está preocupada com o fato de que a eleição de Donald Trump para presidente dos Estados Unidos colocou em risco as relações entre os dois países, informou a Reuters. Segundo comentários da maioria dos membros da diretoria, a vitória de Trump já pode ter afetado o investimento privado no México.

CARIBE

* A Republic Financial Holdings Ltd. anunciou que registrou 44.125 ações ordinárias na Bolsa de Valores de Trinidad & Tobago, aumentando o capital emitido da empresa para 162.347.778 ações ordinárias.

BRASIL

* Em novembro, no Brasil, houve 116.747 demissões de empregos formais, informou a Reuters, citando dados do Ministério do Trabalho. Houve um total de 858.333 demissões nos primeiros 11 meses de 2016, em comparação a 945.000 no mesmo período de 2015.

* O presidente brasileiro Michel Temer disse que seu governo trabalhará para melhorar o código tributário do país em 2017, informou a Reuters. Segundo uma "fonte do governo a par do assunto", a reforma pode incluir modificações nos impostos do setor financeiro e uma reestruturação do conselho de recursos fiscais, o CARF, informou a agência de notícias.

* O governo federal do Brasil pretende cortar mais de 4.600 empregos em uma medida que permitirá uma economia anual de custos de 240 milhões de reais, informou a Reuters, citando o ministro do Planejamento Dyogo de Oliveira.

* O Banco Santander (Brasil) SA anunciou que sua diretoria aprovou os pagamentos de 1,40 bilhões de reais em dividendos e de 3,35 bilhões em juros sobre o capital próprio. O pagamento será feito em 23 de fevereiro de 2017 a acionistas registrados até 4 de janeiro de 2017.

* A implementação de um sistema de classificação de crédito no Brasil pode injetar 1.1 trilhão de reais na economia do país na forma de aumento na demanda por crédito, informou o Valor Econômico, citando um estudo da empresa de pesquisa de crédito Serasa Experian.

* Na última década, o Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social teve um lucro de mais de 6,5 bilhões de reais com investimentos em participação em vários setores como o bancário, de telecomunicações, siderurgia e alimentos e bebidas, entre outros, informou O Estado de S. Paulo.

REGIÃO ANDINA

* O presidente da Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, adiou novamente, para 20 de janeiro de 2017, o plano de retirar de circulação no país as cédulas de 100 bolívares venezuelanos, após a proposta ter provocado protestos e agitação social em todo o país, informou a Reuters. O presidente já havia adiado o plano de meados de dezembro para 2 de janeiro de 2017.

CONE SUL

* A BBVA Seguros de Vida SA anunciou que sua diretoria nomeou Eduardo Olivares Veloso como diretor em substituição a Mauricio Fuenzalida, que renunciou em outubro.

* As seguradoras chilenas estão otimistas com o futuro aumento do limite de investimentos estrangeiros que as seguradoras poderão fazer no primeiro semestre de 2017, informou o Diario Financiero. Embora o banco central ainda não tenha definido o novo limite, as seguradoras teriam pedido que seja dobrado para 40% de suas reservas técnicas locais.

* A entidade reguladora bancária chilena SBIF autorizou o Scotiabank Chile a adquirir os ativos e passivos restantes do Banco Paris. Como resultado do negócio, o Banco Paris, que é uma empresa subsidiária do grupo de varejo Cencosud, será dissolvido e liquidado. A carteira do Banco Paris é composta principalmente de hipotecas no valor de cerca de 9,5 bilhões de pesos chilenos, assim como de outros empréstimos que totalizam 1,1 bilhão de pesos, informou o Pulso. Os termos da transação não foram divulgados.

PANORAMA DA AMÉRICA LATINA

* Empresas de todo o mundo levantaram 648,9 bilhões de dólares em participações em 2016, uma queda em relação aos 873 bilhões em 2015, segundo dados da Thomson Reuters Equity Capital Markets. Os fundos gerados nas ofertas públicas iniciais caíram em quase um terço, para 130,6 bilhões de dólares.

Matthew Craze contribuiu para esse artigo.

The Daily Dose tem um prazo editorial de 8:00 am horário de São Paulo, e verifica as fontes de notícias publicadas em inglês, português e espanhol. Alguns links externos podem exigir uma assinatura.


Listen: Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Mar. 20 2019 — Some fintech companies are making hay with digital platforms that tout their differences with banks, even though they are often offering virtually the same products. In the episode, we discuss with colleagues Rachel Stone and Kiah Haslett the deposit strategies employed by the likes of Chime, Aspiration and other incumbent players such as Ally Financial, Discover and Capital One. Those efforts conjure up memories of a Don Draper pitch in Mad Men and likely will enjoy continued success.

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Technology, Media & Telecom
Broadband Only Homes Skyrocket In 2018 Validating Top MSOs Connectivity Pivot

Highlights

The segment stood at an estimated 23.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2018, accounting for 24% of all wireline high-speed data homes.

The following post comes from Kagan, a research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

To learn more about our TMT (Technology, Media & Telecommunications) products and/or research, please request a demo.

Mar. 20 2019 — The U.S. broadband-only home segment logged its largest net adds on record in 2018, validating Comcast Corp.'s and Charter Communications Inc.'s moves to make broadband, or connectivity, the keystone of their cable communication businesses.

The size and momentum of the segment also put in perspective the recent high-profile online-video video announcements by the top two cable operators as well as AT&T Inc.'s WarnerMedia shake-up and plans to go toe-to-toe with Netflix in the subscription video-on-demand arena in the next 12 months.

We estimate that wireline broadband households not subscribing to traditional multichannel, or broadband-only homes, rose by nearly 4.3 million in 2018, topping the gains from the previous year by roughly 22%. Overall, the segment stood at an estimated 23.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2018, accounting for 24% of all wireline high-speed data homes.

For perspective, broadband-only homes stood at an estimated 11.3 million a mere four years ago, accounting for 13% of residential cable and telco broadband subscribers.

The once all-powerful, must-have live linear TV model, which individuals and families essentially treated as a utility upon moving into a new residence, increasingly is viewed as too expensive and unwieldy in the era of affordable, nimble internet-based video alternatives. This has resulted in a sizable drop in penetration of occupied households.

As a result, continued legacy cord cutting is baked in and broadband-only homes are expected to continue to rise at a fast clip, with the segment's momentum in the next few years compounded by Comcast's, Charter's and AT&T's ambitious moves into online-video territory.

Note: we revised historical broadband-only home estimates as part of our fourth-quarter 2018, following restatements of historical telco broadband subscriber figures and residential traditional multichannel subscriber adjustments.

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Q4'18 multichannel video losses propel full-year drop to edge of 4 million

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Q4'18 multiproduct analysis sheds more light on video's fall from grace

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Watch: Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

Mar. 19 2019 — Steve Piper shares the outlook for U.S. power markets, discussing capacity retirements and whether continued development of wind and solar power plants may mitigate the generation shortfall.

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Credit Analysis
2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

Mar. 15 2019 — On November 20, 2018, a joint event hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence and S&P Global Ratings took place in London, focusing on credit risk and 2019 perspectives.

Pascal Hartwig, Credit Product Specialist, and I provided a review of the latest trends observed across non-financial corporate firms through the lens of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s statistical models.1 In particular, Pascal focused on the outputs produced by a statistical model that uses market information to estimate credit risk of public companies; if you want to know more, you can visit here.

I focused on an analysis of how different Brexit scenarios may impact the credit risk of European Union (EU) private companies that are included on S&P Capital IQ platform.

Before, this, I looked at the evolution of their credit risk profile from 2013 to 2017, as shown in Figure 1. Scores were generated via Credit Analytics’ PD Model Fundamentals Private, a statistical model that uses company financials and other socio-economic factors to estimate the PD of private companies globally. Credit scores are mapped to PD values, which are based on/derived from S&P Global Ratings Observed Default Rates.

Figure 1: EU private company scores generated by PD Model Fundamentals Private, between 2013 and 2017.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.2 As of October 2018.

For any given year, the distribution of credit scores of EU private companies is concentrated below the ‘a’ level, due to the large number of small revenue and unrated firms on the S&P Capital IQ platform. An overall improvement of the risk profile is visible, with the score distribution moving leftwards between 2013 and 2017. A similar picture is visible when comparing companies by country or industry sector,3 confirming that there were no clear signs of a turning point in the credit cycle of private companies in any EU country or industry sector. However, this view is backward looking and does not take into account the potential effects of an imminent and major political and economic event in the (short) history of the EU: Brexit.

To this purpose, S&P Global Market Intelligence has developed a statistical model: the Credit Analytics Macro-scenario model enables users to study how potential future macroeconomic scenarios may affect the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU private companies. This model was developed by looking at the historical evolution of S&P Global Ratings’ rated companies under different macroeconomic conditions, and can be applied to smaller companies after the PD is mapped to a S&P Global Market Intelligence credit score.

“Soft Brexit” (Figure 2): This scenario is based on the baseline forecast made by economists at S&P Global Ratings and is characterized by a gentle slow-down of economic growth, a progressive monetary policy tightening, and low yet volatile stock-market growth.4

Figure 2: “Soft Brexit” macro scenario.5

Source: S&P Global Ratings Economists. As of October 2018.

Applying the Macro-scenario model, we analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over a three-year period from 2018 to 2020, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 3):
    • The median credit risk score within specific industry sectors (Aerospace & Defense, Pharmaceuticals, Telecoms, Utilities, and Real Estate) shows a good degree of resilience, rising by less than half a notch by 2020 and remaining comfortably below the ‘b+’ threshold.
    • The median credit score of the Retail and Consumer Products sectors, however, is severely impacted, breaching the high risk threshold (here defined at the ‘b-’ level).
    • The remaining industry sectors show various dynamics, but essentially remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 3: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

  • Country Analysis (Figure 4):
    • Although the median credit risk score may not change significantly in certain countries, the associated default rates need to be adjusted for the impact of the credit cycle.6 The “spider-web plot” shows the median PD values for private companies within EU countries, adjusted for the credit cycle. Here we include only countries with a minimum number of private companies within the Credit Analytics pre-scored database, to ensure a robust statistical analysis.
    • Countries are ordered by increasing level of median PD, moving clock-wise from Netherlands to Greece.
    • Under a soft Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2018 and 2020, but still remains below the yellow threshold (corresponding to a ‘b+’ level).
    • Interestingly, Italian private companies suffer more than their Spanish peers, albeit starting from a slightly lower PD level in 2017.

Figure 4: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

“Hard Brexit” (Figure 5): This scenario is extracted from the 2018 Stress-Testing exercise of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Bank of England.7 Under this scenario, both the EU and UK may go into a recession similar to the 2008 global crisis. Arguably, this may seem a harsh scenario for the whole of the EU, but a recent report by the Bank of England warned that a disorderly Brexit may trigger a UK crisis worse than 2008.8

Figure 5: “Hard Brexit” macro scenario.9

Sources:”2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (European Banking Authority, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies“ (Bank of England, March 2018).

Also in this case, we apply the Macro-scenario model to analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over the same three-year period, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 6):
    • Despite all industry sectors being severely impacted, the Pharmaceuticals and Utilities sectors remain below the ‘b+’ level (yellow threshold).
    • Conversely, the Airlines and Energy sectors join Retail and Consumer Products in the “danger zone” above the ‘b-’ level (red threshold).
    • The remaining industry sectors will either move into or remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 6: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

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  • Country Analysis (Figure 7):
    • Under a hard Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2017 and 2020, entering the intermediate risk band and suffering even more than its Irish peers.
    • Notably, by 2020 the French private sector may suffer more than the Italian private sector, reaching the attention threshold (here shown as a red circle, and corresponding to a ‘b-’ level).
    • While it is hard to do an exact like-for-like comparison, it is worth noting that our conclusions are broadly aligned with the findings from the 48 banks participating in the 2018 stress-testing exercise, as recently published by the EBA:10 the major share of 2018-2020 new credit risk losses in the stressed scenario will concentrate among counterparties in the UK, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany (leaving aside the usual suspects, such as Greece, Portugal, etc.).

Figure 7: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In conclusion: In Europe, the private companies’ credit risk landscape does not yet signal a distinct turning point, however Brexit may act as a pivot point and a catalyst for a credit cycle inversion, with an intensity that will be dependent on the Brexit type of landing (i.e., soft versus hard).

1 S&P Global Ratings does not contribute to or participate in the creation of credit scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
2 Lowercase nomenclature is used to differentiate S&P Global Market Intelligence credit scores from the credit ratings issued by S&P Global Ratings.
3 Not shown here.
4 Measured via Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth, Long-term / Short-term (L/S) European Central Bank Interest Rate Spread, and FTSE100 or STOXX50 stock market growth, respectively.
5 Macroeconomic forecast for 2018-2020 (end of year) by economists at S&P Global Ratings; the baseline case assumes the UK and the EU will reach a Brexit deal (e.g. a “soft Brexit”).
6 When the credit cycle deteriorates (improves), default rates are expected to increase (decrease).
7 Source: “2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (EBA, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies”. (Bank of England, March 2018).
8 Source: “EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability – A response to the House of Commons Treasury Committee”. (Bank of England, November 2018).
9 As a hard Brexit scenario, we adopt the stressed scenario included in the 2018 stress testing exercise and defined by the EBA and the Bank of England.
10 See, for example, Figure 18 in “2018 EU-Wide Stress Test Result” (EBA November 2018), found at:https://eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/2419200/2018-EU-wide-stress-test-Results.pdf

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2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market-Driven View

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