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AM Power Report: Load forecasts could lift dailies

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AM Power Report: Load forecasts could lift dailies

The priceof power at the dailymarkets could rise in the week's closing session Friday, Sept. 30, on the back ofexpectations for stronger demand coming off the weekend, though the upside couldbe limited by recent weakness at the natural gas futures arena.

in the prior session,the new front-month November natural gas futures contract was edging slightly higherearly Friday ahead of the opening bell. At last look, the contract was up just 0.4cent to $2.963/MMBtu on light short covering ahead of the weekend.

Intandem with the recent softness in futures, day-ahead gas markets are likely toshift lower Friday in many, if not most cases Friday, with the inclusion of thelower-load weekend days in the trading package also offering pressure.

On thedemand side, grid operators across the country anticipate increased load at thestart of the next workweek on Oct. 3 amid the typical post-weekend rebound of business-relateddemand.

In theNortheast, load in New England is expected to hit 14,530 MW on Friday and 15,170MW on Oct. 3, while New York demand is called to reach 18,390 MW on Friday and 19,336MW on Oct. 3. In the Mid-Atlantic, load in the PJM Western region is seen crestingat 47,174 MW on Friday and 49,329 MW at the return of the workweek, while demandin PJM Mid-Atlantic is projected to peak at 31,161 MW on Friday and 34,032 MW onOct. 3.

In theMidwest, PJM AEP region load is seen reaching highs at 14,523 MW on Friday and 15,289MW on Oct. 3, while PJM ComEd demand is forecast to see highs at 11,518 MW on Fridayand 12,162 MW on Oct. 3.

In theSouth, the ERCOT operator expects load to touch a high near 44,132 MW on Fridayand 52,041 MW at the start of the new business week. In the West, demandin CAISO is forecast to top out at 34,095 MW on Friday and 29,394 MW on Oct. 1,but should rebound on Oct. 3 as full industrial and commercial load recovers atthe start of the new business week.

In forwardaction, power deals for October were mixed but mostly higher in their penultimatesession as the front-month offering Sept. 29, while power trades for delivery inNovember were steady to lower overall amid weakness at the natural gas futures arena.

In theEast, price activity for October power was lifted by more than $1 to an index atalmost $30 at NEPOOL-Mass and boosted by about 50 cents to an average at close to$34 at PJM West, while pricing for November power was flat at indexes above $35in New England and atop $34 at PJM West.

In theMidwest, power parcels for October at the PJM markets were valued on either sideof $32, off by about 20 cents at PJM AD but up nearly 50 cents at PJM Northern Illinois,while similar products at MISO Indiana shed nearly 70 cents in trades done at around$35. Along the forward curve, power for November at PJM AD and PJM Northern Illinoiswere also quoted on either side of $32 but in transactions down more or less 40cents, while a similar offering at MISO Indiana was seen changing hands atop $35in deals weaker by roughly 60 cents.

In theSouth, power transactions for October unraveled 35 cents to average above $32 atERCOT Houston but added between 20 cents and 30 cents to average roughly between$28 and $31 at the rest of the ERCOT markets, while regional trading activity forNovember power deflated by around 30 cents to as much as 90 cents to indexes spreadfrom about $27 to atop $29.

In theWest, power prices for October climbed almost 60 cents to indexes close to $37 atNorth Path-15 and above $35 at South Path- 15, as October values advanced by nearly30 cents to average at roughly $24 at Mid-Columbia and held constant at an indexatop $27 at Palo Verde. Power values for November faltered by around 10 cents toaverage above $36 at North Path-15 and held flat at an index at more than $34 atSouth Path-15, as November pricing recoiled about 10 cents at Mid-Columbia and fellapproximately 50 cents at Palo Verde to indexes at almost $27.

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Marketprices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication andare subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power andnatural gas indexprices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.