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Texas power prices soar $10; West Coast values climb

Q2: U.S. Solar and Wind Power by the Numbers

Essential Energy Insights - September 17, 2020

Essential Energy Insights September 2020

Rate case activity slips, COVID-19 proceedings remain at the forefront in August


Texas power prices soar $10; West Coast values climb

Next-daypower markets kicked off the new workweek with mixed moves in the Monday, May9, session, as traders looked to choppy demand forecasts on most regional grids.Warmer weather out West and in Texas that is seen supporting an uptick indemand in those regions in the coming days worked to drive values for day-aheadpower in these regions higher on the session. Power markets lost ground in theMidwest and along the East Coast Monday, with softer load projections tuggingprices to the downside.

Participantsalso kept an eye on natural gas activity. Gaining 2.5 cents in the priorsession, front-month June natural gas futures settled Monday at $2.098/MMBtu,down just 0.3 cent as the market took pause.

Spotnatural gas prices were generally stronger Monday, which worked to offersupport, in some cases, to regional power markets.

ERCOT power prices surge $10on day with anticipated upswing in load

Powermarkets in Texas rallied Monday, with an expected bump higher in demand andgains for natural gas values around the region working collectively to gooseprices higher. Power parcels at ERCOT North were pegged in the lowto mid-$30s, gaining about $10 on the session.

Day-aheadmarkets in Texas climbed $5 to $6 on Monday, notching averages at $28.20 at ERCOTWest, $28.33 at ERCOT South, $29.50 at ERCOT North and $28.93 at ERCOT Houston.

Naturalgas markets in the South-Central U.S. pushed higher Monday. Business at thebenchmark Henry Hub posted an index above $1.95/MMBtu, rising almost 15 cents.Gas at Waha saw an average right around $1.90/MMBtu, up 20 cents.

Loadin Texas is called to reach a high of 52,300 MW on Tuesday, increasing almost4,000 MW from Monday, according to the ERCOT grid operator.

West Coast power pricesadvance amid bullish fundamentals

Alongthe West Coast, daily power prices also climbed Monday, with rising demandprojections and an uptick in regional gas market values supporting the advance.

Inthe Northwest, deals for heavy-load delivery at COB were eyed in the low $20s,largely firm on the session. Heavy-load business at Mid-Columbia was priced inthe mid-teens, up about $1 or so.

InCalifornia, heavy-load deals at South Path-15 were reported done in themid-$20s, increasing a few dollars from the prior session.

CaliforniaISO load is seen peaking at 29,500 MW on Tuesday, up 500 MW from Monday.

Atthe Southwest markets, heavy-load parcels at Palo Verde were transacted in thehigh teens to low $20s, rising about $1.

WestCoast gas prices climbed Monday, which worked to support the day's upswing atthe region's power markets. Product at PG&E Citygates notched an indexright around $2.10/MMBtu, up more than 15 cents on the session. To the south,gas at the SoCal Border posted an average atop $1.95/MMBtu, rising about 25cents.

Northeast power markets slipin week's opener

Dailypower prices in the Northeast were aimed lower Monday, with a mostly weakerdemand forecast working to tug values to the downside.

AtNEPOOL-Mass, on-peak power was priced in the low to mid-$20s, faltering about$3 in value on the session. To the south in the Mid-Atlantic, deals at PJM Westfor Tuesday flow were reported in the upper $20s, easing about $2.

DAMsin the Northeast also declined Monday, losing $4 to $6 on average, postingaverages of $22.76 at NEPOOL-Mass, $23.68 at New York's Zone G, $23.75 at ZoneA and $28.09 at Zone J.

NewEngland demand is expected to peak at 14,330 MW on Tuesday, up 60 MW fromMonday, while New York load is seen hitting 17,400 MW on Tuesday, down 500 MWfrom the day before.

Inthe Mid-Atlantic, demand in the PJM Mid-Atlantic region is anticipated to reach30,200 MW on Tuesday, easing about 100 MW on the day, with load in the PJMWestern region likely to peak at 45,100 MW on Tuesday, falling 1,000 MW fromMonday.

Naturalgas markets in the Northeast shifted higher Monday, which worked to boostregional power values. Gas prices at Transco Zone 6 New York were up 30 centsto average near $1.75/MMBtu. In the Mid-Atlantic, product at TETCO-M3 notchedan index around $1.60/MMBtu, increasing more than 15 cents.

Midwest power prices slidewith softer load outlook

Shruggingoff gains for regional gas prices, Midwest next-day power markets also leakedlower Monday, in tandem with a weaker demand picture.

Peakpower parcels for Tuesday delivery at MISO Indiana were transacted in the low$30s, down about $2 from the session prior.

Demandin the PJM AEP region is seen hitting a high at 14,500 MW on Tuesday, slippingmore than 200 MW from Monday, with load in the PJM ComEd region likely to topout at 10,730 MW on Tuesday, easing 370 MW from the day prior.

Naturalgas prices in the Midwest increased on the day. Deals at Chicago Citygates camein at an index near $1.95/MMBtu, up more than 5 cents, while product at NNGDemarc saw an average right around $1.90/MMBtu, rising roughly 10 cents on thesession.

Market prices and includedindustry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject tochange. For more detailed market data, including SNL power,naturalgas and coalindex prices, as well as forwardsand futures,visit our Commodities Pages.