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Phoenix buys Abbey Life; Barclays, Credit Suisse in US MBS talks

Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Broadband Only Homes Skyrocket In 2018 Validating Top MSOs Connectivity Pivot

Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

Phoenix buys Abbey Life; Barclays, Credit Suisse in US MBS talks

Banks embracingblockchain quickly: Research from IBM found that banks and other financialinstitutions are adopting blockchain technology "dramatically faster"than expected, Reuters writes.Some 65% of 200 banks covered by the study expect to launch blockchain projectsin three years' time.  

* ECB President Mario Draghi yesterday addressed Germanlawmakers and rejected criticism of the central bank's policies, saying themeasures helped avert a new Great Depression, The Wall Street Journal reports.The lawmakers indicated to Draghi that they see the ECB's low interest ratespolicy as a "hidden rescue package" for troubled eurozone countries,Reuters writes.

* European Banking Authority Chairman Andrea Enria yesterdaysignaled that state aid could be used to help rid the banking system of toxicassets if the process is "not going fast enough," the Journal reports.Enria noted that European banks' bad loan problem is "three times as highas other major jurisdictions such as the U.S. or Japan."

* Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhauyesterday called for the creation of eurozone bonds as well as a commonTreasury and shared budget for the single-currency area, Reuters reports.Villeroy de Galhau recommended the creation of synthetic eurozone bonds, backedby actual debt issued by eurozone states, to provide banks with a safe asset touse as collateral.


Phoenix toacquire Deutsche Bank's Abbey Life: Deutsche BankAG agreed tosell its U.K.-based Abbey Life business to unit for£935 million in cash. Deutsche Bank expects the transaction to result in apretax loss of roughly €800 million, mainly due to impairment of goodwill andintangible assets.

* The U.K. Treasury is hiring an independent investment bankto help explore alternatives to a sale of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's Williams & Glynbusiness, after RBS CEO Ross McEwan warned that the group may fail to disposeof the business by year-end, Sky News reports.The investment bank is thought to be Rothschild.

* The Bank ofEngland and the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority mapped out new measures aimed at strengthening accountability rules for senior managers in thefinancial services sector. The regulators want to extend existing conduct rulesto all nonexecutive directors of insurers and banks and to require U.K.branches of foreign banks to inform their employees about the whistleblowingprogram. The move comes as some companies are said to be trying to evade theexisting regulations.

* Bank of England Deputy Governor Minouche Shafik said yesterday that"further monetary stimulus will be required at some point" to helpthe U.K.'s economic recovery following the impact of its decision to leave theEU. The Independent, Bloomberg News and Reuters are among thosewith reports.

* The European Commission opened an in-depth to determine whetherthe proposed merger between Deutsche Börse AG and London Stock Exchange Group Plc would harm competitionin the industry. The commission has until Feb. 13, 2017, to take a decision onthe matter. Meanwhile, LSE Group and LCH Group Ltd. intend to explore apotential sale of LCH SA.

* Worldpay Group Plc named Kim Crawford Goodman CEO of itsU.S. unit, effective Nov. 7, Reuters reports.Goodman will replace Floris de Kort, who is leaving at year-end.


Deutsche Bank hullabaloo continues: Both the Germanfinance ministry and Deutsche Bank denied a Die Zeit reportthat the government was working with financial authorities on an emergency rescueplan for the lender in case it runs into financial difficulties as a falloutfrom a multi-billion-dollar fine in the U.S. The report had indicated that inthe worst case scenario, Germany could even take a 25% stake in the bank.

* Meanwhile, Yigit Bulut, chief adviser to Turkish PresidentRecep Tayyip Erdogan, said Turkey must consider acquiring Deutsche Bank througha new wealth fund or a conglomerate of state-owned banks, Bloomberg writes.

* Aside from Deutsche Bank, and are also intalks with the U.S. Department of Justice about the settlement ofinvestigations into their mortgage-backed securities dealings in the run-up tothe 2008 financial crisis, insiders tellBloomberg. A deal with Credit Suisse is expected to be announced within severalweeks.

* Clemens Fuest, president of the German Institute forEconomic Research, tellsNeue Osnabrücker Zeitung that the current problems of big Germanfinancial institutions such as Deutsche Bank and would entail high risksthat could trigger another financial crisis if not addressed.

* Credit Suisse Group CEO Tidjane Thiam said the Europeanbanking industry is in a “very fragile situation,” the Financial Times reports.Thiam also tellsBloomberg that as much as one-fifth of the volume of Credit Suisse's Londonoperations could be affected if the U.K. loses its passporting rights to accessthe European single market, but assures that Credit Suisse was in a “reasonableposition” to deal with any Brexit fallout.

* Meanwhile, the head of Credit Suisse’s internationalwealth management business, Iqbal Khan, said the bank expects to expand in theUnited Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to tap the potential of the risingnumbers of millionaires in the Middle East, Bloomberg reports.

* UBS GroupAG agreedto pay more than $15 million to settle U.S. Securities and Exchange Commissioncharges that failed to adequately educate and train its sales force aboutcritical aspects of certain complex financial products it sold to retailinvestors.

* Eric Sarasin, the former deputy CEO of who resignedin 2014 amid a criminal investigation related to a damage suit filed byclients, became an executive director at ATAG Family Office AG, a subsidiary ofBasel-based asset manager ATAG Private & Corporate Services AG, Handelszeitungwrites.

* FMS WertmanagementAöR became the next creditor of former Hypo Alpe Adria BankInternational AG to accept the buyback offer by and drop arelated lawsuit, Reuters reports. 


France simplifies procedures forfirms moving from London: French prudential supervisor ACPR and banking regulator AMF announcedthe creation of simplified welcoming procedures for U.K.-based companiesworried about the possible loss of passporting rights after Britain leaves theEU, Les Echos writes. 

*ING Groep NV sold46.7 million ordinary shares in Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. for roughly €490 million, reducingits stake in the India-based lender to 3.9% from 6.4%.

* 's board approved a newrestructuring plan that will be submitted to the Belgian central bank at theend of the week, according to L'Echo. The previous plan in2015 was found insufficient by the regulator.

* Belgianinsurer Integrale has now nearly completed the process to become a publiclimited liability company under the control of Nethys, L'Echo reports.The Belgian central bank last year ordered a financial recovery plan requiringIntegrale to strengthen its capital and improve its risk management.

*Optima Bank NVconsultants destroyed evidence of fraud from the bank's documents during a"spring cleaning" in 2011, DeTijd reports,citing magazine Knack.

*KAS BANK NV is set tosell its headquarters in Amsterdam, HetFinancieele Dagblad reports. 


Fosun moves closer to BCP stakeacquisition: 's board mandated theexecutive committee to proceed with and complete with exclusivity thenegotiations with Fosun Industrial Holdings Ltd., which seeks to acquire a16.7% stake in the Portuguese bank. BCP will carry out a 1:75reverse stock split Oct. 24 to satisfy one of Fosun's conditions for the stakeacquisition, Jornal de Negócios writes.

* The Portuguese government extended maturities on state loans to thecountry’s bank resolution fund in a bid to ease banks' payment commitments andreduce the likelihood of extraordinary contributions to the fund, Expressoand DinheiroVivo write. The measure also clears the way for Fosun to acquire astake in BCP.  

* Spanish bank restructuring fund FROB is analyzinga possible merger of BankiaSA and Banco MareNostrum SA and possible options to maximize the value of the twobanks. FROB will hire external advisers for the process.


Generali tosell 2 offshore units: Generali agreed to sell its units in Guatemala and Liechtensteinfor an undisclosed sum as part of a strategy to focus on more promising andless capital-intensive businesses. Generali will sell its entire 51% stake inGuatemala-based Aseguradora Generali SA and the entire share capital of FortunaLebens-Versicherungs AG in Liechtenstein.

* UnipolGruppo Finanziario SpA wants to find a merger partner for bankingunit Unipol BancaSpA, according to MF.

* UBI Banca's offer for Banca delle Marche SpA, and Cassa diRisparmio della Provincia di Chieti SpA could arrive Oct. 2, twodays after the official deadline, LaRepubblica writes. The ECBSupervisory Board will examine UBI Banca's offer today, Il Sole 24 Ore notes.

* UniCreditSpA will present its new strategic plan Dec. 13, Il Sole 24 Ore writes.

* Bank of Greece's director of banking supervision, SissyPapagiannidou, said Attica BankSA and its major shareholder were not willing to comply with any ofthe Greek central bank's instructions, Kerdosreports.  Papagiannidou blamed members of Attica Bank'sboard of directors for the irregularities in the lender, noting that thedirectors had no experience in the banking sector and were often absent inmeetings.  


Danske Bank,Nordea sell takes in shipping finance biz: Danish pension funds andPKA and Nordic equity fund Axcel will acquire a majority stake in shipping finance providerDanmarks SkibskreditA/S from shareholders including Danske Bank A/S and Nordea Bank AB. The transaction values DanmarksSkibskredit at 4.72 billion Danish kroner.

* The Swedish Bankers Association warned the Swedishgovernment that a proposed payroll tax on banks, insurers and pension fundswould jeopardize more than 16,000 jobs in the country's financial servicessector, Svenska Dagbladet writes. Thegovernment, which believes that banks and insurers are undertaxed, is looking ata special levy that could be imposed on the sector in the form of a tax onturnover or social security contributions, accordingto Sydsvenskan.

* Laurits Engstrøm, chief dealer in debt capital marketssyndicate at Danske Bank, has left the company, Thomson Reuters' IFR reports.It also emerged that Jeremy Spinney, former global head of debt syndicate atDanske Bank, retired in July.

* Talks between Danske Bank and remain deadlocked,FinansWatch reports.The two companies are trying to reach an agreement that would allow Danske Bankto integrate its smartphone-based Mobilepay service into Nets' Dankort mobilecredit card.  


Polish finance minister sacked: Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydlo dismissedFinance Minister Pawel Szalamacha and replaced him with Economy MinisterMateusz Morawiecki, Reuters reports.Szydlo said Szalamacha's dismissal was necessary to make an economic stimulusplan spearheaded by Morawiecki more effective.

* Moody's maintainedthe stable outlook on Poland's banking system, but warned that banks are facingchallenges to their profitability, some of which due to several unfavorablegovernment policies, such as the introduction of a bank tax.

* 's shareholders approvedthe lender's demerger into a core business, which will be transferred toAlior Bank SA, and amortgage business that will remain at Bank BPH, Rzeczpospolita reports.

* Erste GroupBank AG appointed Bernhard Spalt chief risk officer of its Romaniansubsidiary, Banca ComercialaRomana SA, Romania Insiderreports.Spalt will succeed Jon Locke, who left the company.

* askedits shareholders for financial assistance in order to increase the size of itscapital and strengthen its financial position, reports.

* CEFC China EnergyCo. Ltd. applied with the Slovak central bank for approval to increase itsstake in J&T Finance Group to 50% from 9.9%, Reuters reports.The acquisition of the stake will allow CEFC access to the banking market inthe Czech Republic, Russia, Croatia and Slovakia.

* said General Manager MusaÜlken is retiring and will leave the insurer Nov. 1. 


Asia-Pacific: ING to sell Kotak Mahindra stake; China, Europe to extend currencyswap

Middle East & Africa: Saudi Arabia's bond issue; Ghana's e-fraud worries

Latin America: Cade probes BM&FBOVESPA; Fenaban proposes 2-year wageagreements

North America: Stumpf to forfeit $41M in unvested equity; 2 Minnesota-based banksmerging

North America Insurance: Wellmark shrinks health coverage options in Iowa; Aetna to subsidizeApple watches for some customers


DataDispatch Europe: Falling price-to-book ratios demonstrate pressure on Europeanbanks: Just two of Europe's 30 largest banks by total assets areprojected to offer higher price-to-book ratios at year-end 2016 than they didat the end of 2015, according to data compiled by S&P Global MarketIntelligence.

Bondholderpanic contained as Deutsche rescue talk swirls: Deutsche Bank'sshares are at three-decade lows as it and the German government have beenforced to deny rumors of a state rescue plan, but debt markets have held backfrom the levels of panic seen earlier in 2016.

UBS CEO: Banksneed artificial intelligence to replace staff, cut costs:Technology that enables computers to acquire knowledge themselves can helpsolve the problem of diminishing profits in the banking sector, Sergio Ermottitold the Sibos conference in Geneva.

Leo Magno, Erin Tanchico, Arno Maierbrugger, Meike Wijers, GerardO'Dwyer, Beata Fojcik, Thanasis Kakalis, AliKayalar, Yael Schrage, Stephanie Salti, Praxilla Trabattoniand Helen Popper contributed tothis report.

The Daily Dose has aneditorial deadline of 7 a.m. London time. Some external links may require asubscription.

Listen: Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Mar. 20 2019 — Some fintech companies are making hay with digital platforms that tout their differences with banks, even though they are often offering virtually the same products. In the episode, we discuss with colleagues Rachel Stone and Kiah Haslett the deposit strategies employed by the likes of Chime, Aspiration and other incumbent players such as Ally Financial, Discover and Capital One. Those efforts conjure up memories of a Don Draper pitch in Mad Men and likely will enjoy continued success.

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Technology, Media & Telecom
Broadband Only Homes Skyrocket In 2018 Validating Top MSOs Connectivity Pivot


The segment stood at an estimated 23.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2018, accounting for 24% of all wireline high-speed data homes.

The following post comes from Kagan, a research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

To learn more about our TMT (Technology, Media & Telecommunications) products and/or research, please request a demo.

Mar. 20 2019 — The U.S. broadband-only home segment logged its largest net adds on record in 2018, validating Comcast Corp.'s and Charter Communications Inc.'s moves to make broadband, or connectivity, the keystone of their cable communication businesses.

The size and momentum of the segment also put in perspective the recent high-profile online-video video announcements by the top two cable operators as well as AT&T Inc.'s WarnerMedia shake-up and plans to go toe-to-toe with Netflix in the subscription video-on-demand arena in the next 12 months.

We estimate that wireline broadband households not subscribing to traditional multichannel, or broadband-only homes, rose by nearly 4.3 million in 2018, topping the gains from the previous year by roughly 22%. Overall, the segment stood at an estimated 23.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2018, accounting for 24% of all wireline high-speed data homes.

For perspective, broadband-only homes stood at an estimated 11.3 million a mere four years ago, accounting for 13% of residential cable and telco broadband subscribers.

The once all-powerful, must-have live linear TV model, which individuals and families essentially treated as a utility upon moving into a new residence, increasingly is viewed as too expensive and unwieldy in the era of affordable, nimble internet-based video alternatives. This has resulted in a sizable drop in penetration of occupied households.

As a result, continued legacy cord cutting is baked in and broadband-only homes are expected to continue to rise at a fast clip, with the segment's momentum in the next few years compounded by Comcast's, Charter's and AT&T's ambitious moves into online-video territory.

Note: we revised historical broadband-only home estimates as part of our fourth-quarter 2018, following restatements of historical telco broadband subscriber figures and residential traditional multichannel subscriber adjustments.

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Q4'18 multichannel video losses propel full-year drop to edge of 4 million

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Q4'18 multiproduct analysis sheds more light on video's fall from grace

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Watch: Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

Mar. 19 2019 — Steve Piper shares the outlook for U.S. power markets, discussing capacity retirements and whether continued development of wind and solar power plants may mitigate the generation shortfall.

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Credit Analysis
2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

Mar. 15 2019 — On November 20, 2018, a joint event hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence and S&P Global Ratings took place in London, focusing on credit risk and 2019 perspectives.

Pascal Hartwig, Credit Product Specialist, and I provided a review of the latest trends observed across non-financial corporate firms through the lens of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s statistical models.1 In particular, Pascal focused on the outputs produced by a statistical model that uses market information to estimate credit risk of public companies; if you want to know more, you can visit here.

I focused on an analysis of how different Brexit scenarios may impact the credit risk of European Union (EU) private companies that are included on S&P Capital IQ platform.

Before, this, I looked at the evolution of their credit risk profile from 2013 to 2017, as shown in Figure 1. Scores were generated via Credit Analytics’ PD Model Fundamentals Private, a statistical model that uses company financials and other socio-economic factors to estimate the PD of private companies globally. Credit scores are mapped to PD values, which are based on/derived from S&P Global Ratings Observed Default Rates.

Figure 1: EU private company scores generated by PD Model Fundamentals Private, between 2013 and 2017.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.2 As of October 2018.

For any given year, the distribution of credit scores of EU private companies is concentrated below the ‘a’ level, due to the large number of small revenue and unrated firms on the S&P Capital IQ platform. An overall improvement of the risk profile is visible, with the score distribution moving leftwards between 2013 and 2017. A similar picture is visible when comparing companies by country or industry sector,3 confirming that there were no clear signs of a turning point in the credit cycle of private companies in any EU country or industry sector. However, this view is backward looking and does not take into account the potential effects of an imminent and major political and economic event in the (short) history of the EU: Brexit.

To this purpose, S&P Global Market Intelligence has developed a statistical model: the Credit Analytics Macro-scenario model enables users to study how potential future macroeconomic scenarios may affect the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU private companies. This model was developed by looking at the historical evolution of S&P Global Ratings’ rated companies under different macroeconomic conditions, and can be applied to smaller companies after the PD is mapped to a S&P Global Market Intelligence credit score.

“Soft Brexit” (Figure 2): This scenario is based on the baseline forecast made by economists at S&P Global Ratings and is characterized by a gentle slow-down of economic growth, a progressive monetary policy tightening, and low yet volatile stock-market growth.4

Figure 2: “Soft Brexit” macro scenario.5

Source: S&P Global Ratings Economists. As of October 2018.

Applying the Macro-scenario model, we analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over a three-year period from 2018 to 2020, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 3):
    • The median credit risk score within specific industry sectors (Aerospace & Defense, Pharmaceuticals, Telecoms, Utilities, and Real Estate) shows a good degree of resilience, rising by less than half a notch by 2020 and remaining comfortably below the ‘b+’ threshold.
    • The median credit score of the Retail and Consumer Products sectors, however, is severely impacted, breaching the high risk threshold (here defined at the ‘b-’ level).
    • The remaining industry sectors show various dynamics, but essentially remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 3: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

  • Country Analysis (Figure 4):
    • Although the median credit risk score may not change significantly in certain countries, the associated default rates need to be adjusted for the impact of the credit cycle.6 The “spider-web plot” shows the median PD values for private companies within EU countries, adjusted for the credit cycle. Here we include only countries with a minimum number of private companies within the Credit Analytics pre-scored database, to ensure a robust statistical analysis.
    • Countries are ordered by increasing level of median PD, moving clock-wise from Netherlands to Greece.
    • Under a soft Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2018 and 2020, but still remains below the yellow threshold (corresponding to a ‘b+’ level).
    • Interestingly, Italian private companies suffer more than their Spanish peers, albeit starting from a slightly lower PD level in 2017.

Figure 4: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

“Hard Brexit” (Figure 5): This scenario is extracted from the 2018 Stress-Testing exercise of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Bank of England.7 Under this scenario, both the EU and UK may go into a recession similar to the 2008 global crisis. Arguably, this may seem a harsh scenario for the whole of the EU, but a recent report by the Bank of England warned that a disorderly Brexit may trigger a UK crisis worse than 2008.8

Figure 5: “Hard Brexit” macro scenario.9

Sources:”2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (European Banking Authority, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies“ (Bank of England, March 2018).

Also in this case, we apply the Macro-scenario model to analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over the same three-year period, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 6):
    • Despite all industry sectors being severely impacted, the Pharmaceuticals and Utilities sectors remain below the ‘b+’ level (yellow threshold).
    • Conversely, the Airlines and Energy sectors join Retail and Consumer Products in the “danger zone” above the ‘b-’ level (red threshold).
    • The remaining industry sectors will either move into or remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 6: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

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  • Country Analysis (Figure 7):
    • Under a hard Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2017 and 2020, entering the intermediate risk band and suffering even more than its Irish peers.
    • Notably, by 2020 the French private sector may suffer more than the Italian private sector, reaching the attention threshold (here shown as a red circle, and corresponding to a ‘b-’ level).
    • While it is hard to do an exact like-for-like comparison, it is worth noting that our conclusions are broadly aligned with the findings from the 48 banks participating in the 2018 stress-testing exercise, as recently published by the EBA:10 the major share of 2018-2020 new credit risk losses in the stressed scenario will concentrate among counterparties in the UK, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany (leaving aside the usual suspects, such as Greece, Portugal, etc.).

Figure 7: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In conclusion: In Europe, the private companies’ credit risk landscape does not yet signal a distinct turning point, however Brexit may act as a pivot point and a catalyst for a credit cycle inversion, with an intensity that will be dependent on the Brexit type of landing (i.e., soft versus hard).

1 S&P Global Ratings does not contribute to or participate in the creation of credit scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
2 Lowercase nomenclature is used to differentiate S&P Global Market Intelligence credit scores from the credit ratings issued by S&P Global Ratings.
3 Not shown here.
4 Measured via Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth, Long-term / Short-term (L/S) European Central Bank Interest Rate Spread, and FTSE100 or STOXX50 stock market growth, respectively.
5 Macroeconomic forecast for 2018-2020 (end of year) by economists at S&P Global Ratings; the baseline case assumes the UK and the EU will reach a Brexit deal (e.g. a “soft Brexit”).
6 When the credit cycle deteriorates (improves), default rates are expected to increase (decrease).
7 Source: “2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (EBA, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies”. (Bank of England, March 2018).
8 Source: “EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability – A response to the House of Commons Treasury Committee”. (Bank of England, November 2018).
9 As a hard Brexit scenario, we adopt the stressed scenario included in the 2018 stress testing exercise and defined by the EBA and the Bank of England.
10 See, for example, Figure 18 in “2018 EU-Wide Stress Test Result” (EBA November 2018), found at:

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2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market-Driven View

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