S&P Global Ratings on July 20 downgraded Turkey'ssovereign ratings, saying the recent failed coup will make it more difficult for the countryto roll over its substantial amounts of external short-term debt.
The agency cut Turkey's foreign- and local-currencysovereign credit ratings to BB/B and BB+/B from BB+/B and BBB-/A-3,respectively, and revised the outlooks to negative from stable. It also loweredthe country's Turkey national scale rating to trAA+ from trAAA and revised thetransfer and convertibility assessment to BBB- from BBB.
S&P said Turkey's political landscape has furtherfragmented in the wake of the coup, which it said will likely undermine thecountry's investment environment, growth and capital inflows. It estimates thatTurkey needs within the next 12 months to roll over some 42% of its netexternal debt, amounting to over $170 billion, and noted that policymakers arelikely to stray from commitments to reduce the dependence on externalfinancing.
The agency added, however, that Turkey does have "deeplocal-currency capital markets," with two-thirds of government debt fundedin local currency and at fixed rates.
The negative outlook reflects S&P's view that shouldpolitical uncertainty lead to further weakening of the investment environment,the country's economic, fiscal and debt metrics could deteriorate beyond theagency's current expectations. It also warned of a potential downgrade shouldgovernment intervention undermine the credibility of Turkey's monetary policycredibility.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has in the past called forthe central bank to lower benchmark interest rates in spite of high inflation,and he has challenged economic convention by saying high interest rates cause,rather than ameliorate, inflation.
S&P Global Ratingsand S&P Global Market Intelligence are owned by S&P Global Inc.