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AM Power Report: Dailies could trend lower with load forecasts, gas

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AM Power Report: Dailies could trend lower with load forecasts, gas

Following a mixed day of trade March 12, price activity for day-ahead power could be tethered to the downside Wednesday, March 14, amid pressure from generally weaker demand projections for the latter part of the workweek and potential losses in natural gas.

Ending 0.8-cent higher in the March 13 trading day, NYMEX April natural gas futures were probing the downside in early action Wednesday, slipping 4.5 cents to $2.741/MMBtu at 6:40 a.m. ET on profit taking and selling.

Next-day natural gas values at many major consuming hubs are likely to follow the futures market lower in some cases at midweek.

On the demand side, outlooks point to softer load in much of the country in the latter part of the workweek.

In the Northeast, demand in New England is expected to see highs at 16,140 MW on Wednesday and 15,750 MW on Thursday, while load in New York is called to reach 19,277 MW on Wednesday and 19,094 MW on Thursday. In the mid-Atlantic, PJM Western region demand could crest at 57,659 MW on Wednesday and 54,503 MW on Thursday, while PJM Mid-Atlantic load could hit highs at 37,672 MW on Wednesday and 36,618 MW on Thursday.

In the Midwest, demand in the PJM AEP region could peak at 18,772 MW on Wednesday and 17,811 MW in the latter part of the business week, while load in PJM ComEd could reach highs at 12,349 MW on Wednesday and 11,970 MW on Thursday.

In the South, Texas load should near 39,586 MW on Wednesday and 38,538 MW on Thursday. In the West, California demand will likely top out at 27,800 MW on Wednesday and 27,300 MW on Thursday.

In term action, April power had a mixed showing March 13, as stubborn cold in outlooks and calendar implications on weather fed anticipation of diverging demand patterns in the coming weeks.

In the East, losses of between $1 and $2 took pricing for month-ahead power to the low $30s in New England and the mid-$30s at PJM West. Price activity for May power delivery ran through the high $20s in New England and the low $30s at PJM West.

In the Midwest, the power offering for April was valued in the low to mid-$30s in trades about 30 cents higher on the day at PJM AD and 65 cents stronger at PJM Northern Illinois but off 40 cents at MISO Indiana. Along the forward curve, May power was marked in the low to high $30s overall.

In the South, transactions for prompt-month power delivery at the ERCOT hubs that spanned the high $20s to the low $30s were 10 cents to 30 cents softer on the day. Regional trading action for May power was likewise spread in the high $20s to the low $30s.

In the West, California saw April power values climb by roughly 50 cents to the low $30s at North Path-15 and ascend by 70 cents to the high $20s at South Path-15, while Mid-Columbia April deals deflated by 75 cents to the mid- to high $10s. Palo Verde April power rose by 60 cents to the high $20s. May power was assessed in the low $10s at Mid-Columbia and in the high $20s to the low $30s elsewhere in the region.

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Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.