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New York markets pre-open: Treasurys slip with Fed in focus; European stocks up

SNL Image

? Treasurys slip ahead of Fed minutes.

? European stocks rise, Asian bourses dip ahead of latest U.S.-China tariffs.

? Euro and sterling rise, yen slips against dollar.

? S&P 500 set to open higher.

Benchmark 10-year Treasurys fell as investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June. European equities climbed, shrugging off declines in Asian bourses ahead of the latest round of U.S.-China trade tariffs July 6. The euro and sterling gained, Brent slipped and futures pointed to the S&P 500 opening higher.

Ten-year Treasury yields added 3 basis points to 2.864% by 6:45 a.m. ET ahead of minutes from the Fed's June meeting. "The latest minutes should outline whether the Fed is concerned about an inflation overshoot and whether it has any concerns about the current uncertainty around trade which might derail these plans to raise rates another 5 times by the end of 2019," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

German Bunds fell, with 10-year yields climbing 2 basis points to 0.326%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 surged 1% and the FTSE 100 added 0.44%. Gains in the automotive sector buoyed Germany's DAX index by 1.23% as the EU was reportedly considering proposing a deal to cut tariffs on cars to prevent a trade war. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG's shares jumped 4.4% and Volkswagen AG was up 3.5%.

"We would not be surprised to see the threat of protectionism intensify in the coming months," Oliver Jones of Capital Economics wrote in a research note. "If this happened, we would expect to see equities in Emerging Asia and the IT and industrials sectors continue to underperform their EM peers."

Earlier, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slipped by 0.21% and the Shanghai SE Composite lost 0.91% as the U.S. prepared to impose levies on $34 billion of Chinese imports July 6. Beijing has vowed to retaliate in kind though China does not want to fire the first shot, according to Gao Feng, a spokesperson for the country's Ministry of Commerce.

"A last-minute reprieve aside, this backdrop leaves us expecting caution to prevail among global investors," according to TD Securities. "Data and event risks may keep markets range-bound for now, but this may only delay a broader reaction."

The dollar appreciated 0.15% against the yen. The euro strengthened 0.23% against the U.S. currency after German industrial orders grew at a stronger than expected rate in May. Sterling gained 0.16% as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he was confident that the British economy's slowdown at the start of the year was temporary, raising expectations of an interest rate hike in August.

Brent crude dipped 0.15% to $78.12 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange as President Donald Trump demanded that OPEC lower prices in exchange for security ties the oil group members enjoy with the U.S.

"A lid on oil prices — coupled with a less hawkish Fed … could be just what the doctor ordered for EM FX," strategists at ING Research noted. "Any reprieve in risk sentiment would weigh on [the dollar]."

The lira gained 0.7% against the dollar. Turkey imports its oil.

Gold edged 0.06% lower to $1,252.70 per ounce.

More from S&P Global Market Intelligence:

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The day ahead:

8:15 a.m. ET — U.S. ADP employment report (Econoday consensus: 190,000

8:30 a.m. ET — U.S. jobless claims (Econoday consensus: 223,000)

9:45 a.m. ET — U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort index

9:45 a.m. ET — U.S. PMI services index (Econoday consensus: 56.5)

10 a.m. ET — U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index (Econoday consensus: 58.4)

11 a.m. ET — U.S. EIA petroleum status report

11 a.m. ET — Global services PMI

11 a.m. ET — Global composite PMI

2 p.m. ET — FOMC minutes

4:30 p.m. ET — U.S. Fed's balance sheet and money supply

7:30 p.m. ET — Japan household spending (Econoday consensus: -1.8% yearly)