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AM Power Report: Dailies could end week lower with demand

Powerdailies could endthe workweek tethered to the downside Friday, Sept. 23, amid pressure fromforecasts for demand weakness in much of the country coming off the weekend andrecent weakness in natural gas prices.

to move backbelow $3.00/MMBtu in the prior session, the October contract was edgingslightly higher overnight ahead of the Friday open, seen 0.7 cent higher at $2.997/MMBtuon light pre-weekend short covering. Although Thursday's reportedgas storage injection for the week ended Sept. 16 was well below the 96-Bcfinjection reported for the same week in 2015 and the five-year averageinjection of 83 Bcf, the build was above the consensus estimate formed at 49Bcf.

Amidthe previous day's decline in futures as well as the inclusion of thelower-load weekend days in the trading product Friday, day-ahead natural gasmarkets are likely to come under pressure at most major consuming hubs, whichcould apply additional pressure to power dailies.

Interms of demand, most grid operators in the country see diminished load at thestart of the next workweek on Sept. 26, despite the typical post-weekendrebound in business-related demand.

Inthe Northeast, load in New England is seen hitting highs at 16,700 MW on Fridayand 15,000 MW on Sept. 26, while load in New York is forecast to peak at 22,419MW on Friday and 18,555 MW on Sept. 26. To the south, PJM Western region demandis expected to top out at 63,465 MW on Friday and 59,927 MW on Sept. 26, whilePJM Mid-Atlantic load is projected to see highs at 40,057 MW on Friday and32,204 MW on Sept. 26.

Inthe Midwest, demand in the PJM AEP region is poised to crest at 19,649 MW on Fridayand 18,955 MW at the start of the next workweek, while load in PJM ComEd shouldnear 14,419 MW on Friday and 13,839 MW on Sept. 26.

Inthe South, demand in ERCOT is expected to touch a high near 60,766 MW on Fridayand 44,556 MW on Sept. 26. In the West, load in CAISO is called toreach 30,841 MW on Friday and 31,669 MW on Sept. 24, as regional warming looksto buoy demand despite the typical reduction of business-related load duringthe weekend break.

Inforward activity, the price of power for October delivery was steady to lowerSept. 22, as a downdraft at the natural gas futures complex signaled areduction in fueling costs.

Inthe East, front-month power values faltered by about 60 cents to an indexaround $31 at NEPOOL-Mass and slumped by nearly 30 cents to average close to$35 at PJM West, as power prices for November ran through the high $30s in NewEngland and through the mid-$30s at PJM West.

Inthe Midwest, losses on either side of 40 cents at the PJM markets drove powerdeals for October to indexes atop $34 at the AD hub and at almost $33 at theNorthern Illinois hub, as a $1 decline steered MISO Indiana October trades toan average near $35. Along the forward curve, power transactions for Novemberacross the three locations were spread in the low to mid-$30s.

Inthe South, power transactions for October at the ERCOT markets shed about 50cents to as much as 60 cents to average roughly between $28 and $33. Regionaltrading activity for November power similarly spanned the high $20s to the low $30s.

Inthe West, North Path-15 and South Path-15 in California saw month-ahead powerprices deflate by between 60 cents and 70 cents to indexes on either side of$37, as Mid-Columbia October held flat at an average at $25 and Palo VerdeOctober slid by 25 cents to an index at roughly $29. Power pricing for Novemberwas spotted in the mid- to high $30s in California and in the high $20selsewhere in the region.

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Marketprices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication andare subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power andnatural gasindex prices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.