Next-day power markets could see mixed moves to conclude the week, Friday, Oct. 13, as traders look to mixed demand outlooks for the start of the new week and recent gains in natural gas futures pricing.
Rallying 10 cents in the prior day despite a larger-than-expected injection into storage, NYMEX November natural gas futures were extending higher early Friday on short covering ahead of the weekend. At 7 a.m. ET, the contract was up 3.2 cents to trade near $3.021/MMBtu.
In step with the recent advance in futures, day-ahead natural gas prices could step higher in many cases Friday, although pressure is likely to be seen amid the inclusion of the lower-load weekend days in the trading package.
Looking at load, demand in New England is poised to hit highs at 14,150 MW on Friday and 14,900 MW on Oct. 16. Load in New York is called to top out at 18,600 MW on Friday and 18,530 MW on Oct. 16. Demand in the Western region of PJM is expected to peak at 47,400 MW on Friday and 46,600 MW by Oct. 16. Load in the PJM Mid-Atlantic region is likely to crest at 30,350 MW on Friday and 31,800 MW on Oct. 16.
In the Midwest, demand in the AEP region should reach highs at 14,500 MW on Friday and 14,230 MW on Oct. 16, while load in the ComEd region near Chicago should top out around 11,225 MW on Friday and 11,140 MW on Oct. 16.
In Texas, demand is poised to reach 58,150 MW on Friday and 42,900 MW by Oct. 16. Out West, load in the Golden State is seen reaching highs at 28,725 MW on Friday and 27,710 MW on Saturday before likely swinging higher by Oct. 16.
In forward action, the price of power for November delivery was higher overall Thursday, in line with front-month natural gas futures that rose on the session to ultimately signal elevated fueling costs.
In the East, trades for November power were lifted by about 40 cents to an index atop $35 in New England and bolstered by 30 cents to an average above $33 at PJM West. Farther along the forward curve, power deals for December were carried out in the mid- to high $50s in New England and in the high $30s at PJM West.
In the Midwest, PJM AD November advanced by roughly 30 cents to an index near $34, and PJM Northern Illinois November climbed by around 50 cents to an average atop $31. MISO Indiana November power ascended by almost 80 cents to an index above $35. December power was marked in the low to high $30s overall.
In the South, gains of about 25 cents to 50 cents at the ERCOT markets took price activity for month-ahead power to indexes ranging roughly from $21 to $30. Regional pricing for December power similarly spanned the low $20s to the low $30s.
In the West, California saw power values for November tack on about 30 cents to average atop $39 at North Path-15 and ascend by 70 cents to an index close to $37 at South Path-15, as Mid-Columbia November added almost 20 cents to average at approximately $26 and Palo Verde November rose by 55 cents to an index around $28. Power prices for December were pegged in the high $30s to the low $40s in California and in the high $20s to the low $30s elsewhere in the region.
Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.