Over-the-counter prices for solar and nonsolar renewable energy credit prices in New Jersey moved in divergent directions during the week ended Oct. 4.

Garden State energy year 2018 SRECs were priced at $221.83/MWh, down $1.75, as yearly compliance reports were due to the state Oct. 1. New Jersey energy year 2019 SRECs were assessed at $219.92/MWh, up 50 cents on the week.

In May, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, signed Assembly Bill 3723/Senate Bill 2314, which increases the state's renewable portfolio standard requirements to 50% by 2030 and also hikes the solar requirements to 5.1% by energy year 2021 while decreasing the solar alternative compliance payment.

Over the last year, the average monthly build rate in New Jersey has remained relatively stable, edging up from 26.9 MW in April to 27.2 MW in August, SRECTrade said in a Sept. 27 report.

Based on the state's current solar supply and on the new RPS requirements, analysts from SRECTrade expect the 2019 SREC market should be relatively balanced, with a marginal oversupply of about 4.0%. "This includes an estimated banked SREC volume of 294,734 after NJ2018 compliance filings are completed," they wrote.

The analysts anticipate the 2020 energy year SREC market will be undersupplied, absent any substantial increase in the monthly build rate, with this likely to extend into 2021 under most scenarios.

Following a recent uptick in pricing sparked by increased buying, New Jersey class I markets were mixed during the week under review. New Jersey vintage 2018 class I RECs were up 11 cents from the week prior to an average at $6.21/MWh, as vintage 2019 class I RECs eased 1 cent to an index at $6.43/MWh.

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