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AM Power Report: Dailies could chop around with load, advance with gas

Day-aheadpower prices couldbe mixed to higher Tuesday, Sept. 27, as varied demand projections for midweekcollide with ongoing gains at the natural gas futures arena.

in the priorsession, October natural gas futures, which roll off the board at the close ofbusiness Wednesday afternoon, were extending slightly higher early Tuesday,climbing back above $3.00/MMBtu to $3.014/MMBtu, up 1.7 cents.

In conjunctionwith any sustained gains in futures Tuesday and in line with the prior-dayadvance, day-ahead gas values are likely to shift to the upside, offering anundercurrent of support to many daily power markets.

Interms of demand, load forecasts for midweek are aimed in diverging directions.

Inthe Northeast, demand in New England could see highs at 15,730 MW on Tuesdayand 15,290 MW on Wednesday, while New York load should near 19,298 MW onTuesday and 19,687 MW at midweek. To the south, PJM Western region demand willlikely crest at 48,687 MW on Tuesday and 47,154 MW on Wednesday, while load inPJM Mid-Atlantic could peak at 32,806 MW on Tuesday and 33,073 MW on Wednesday.

Inthe Midwest, PJM AEP region load is called to reach 15,253 MW on Tuesday and14,582 MW on Wednesday, while demand in PJM ComEd is seen hitting highs at11,725 MW on Tuesday and 11,521 MW on Wednesday.

InTexas, load in ERCOT is expected to reach highs at 46,181 MW on Tuesday and51,963 MW in the middle of the workweek. In California, CAISO loadcould top out at 40,349 MW on Tuesday and 36,764 MW on Wednesday.

Alongthe forward curve,price activity for October power was choppy with a dominant upside bias in theweek's opening session, as fresh gains at the natural gas futures complexsignaled a boost in fueling costs.

Inthe East, prompt-month power values climbed by 60 cents to an index atop $31 atNEPOOL-Mass and rose by 85 cents to average at roughly $36 at PJM West, aspower prices for November across the two hubs ran through the mid- to high $30s.

Inthe Midwest, power deals for October were lifted by 85 cents to an index ataround $35 at PJM AD and bolstered by almost 40 cents to an average above $33at PJM Northern Illinois, as similar transactions at MISO Indiana shed roughly10 cents on the session to average at $35. Along the forward curve, powertrades for November across the three hubs were also discussed in the low tomid-$30s.

Inthe South, price action for front-month power added a little more than 10 centsto average at close to $31 at ERCOT South but slumped by nearly 10 cents toindexes spread roughly between $28 and $32 at the rest of the ERCOT markets, asregional pricing for November power likewise spanned the high $20s to the low$30s.

Inthe West, California saw transactions for October power ascend by about $1 toan index at almost $39 at North Path-15 and advance by nearly 30 cents toaverage atop $36 at South Path-15, as Mid-Columbia October unraveled about 30cents against the wider regional uptick to average at above $24, and Palo VerdeOctober tacked on roughly 70 cents in trades done at close to $29. Power dealsfor November were carried out in the mid- to high $30s in California and in thehigh $20s elsewhere in the region.

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Marketprices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication andare subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power andnatural gasindex prices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.