Power dailies could post gains in the week's closing session Friday, March 2, on the back of expectations for elevated demand in much of the country coming off the weekend.
Participants will watch natural gas for price direction at the power markets as well Friday. Gaining 3.1 cents in the March 1 session on some lingering cold weather concerns, NYMEX front-month April natural gas futures were extending slightly higher, rising another 1.1 cents to $2.709/MMBtu at 6:50 a.m. ET.
Despite the recent strength in futures, day-ahead natural gas prices at the major consuming hubs are likely to leak lower in many cases Friday, with the inclusion of the lower-load weekend days in the trading product offering the typical pressure.
On the demand side, most grid operators anticipate stronger load at the start of the next workweek on March 5, as business-related demand typically rebounds coming off the weekend break.
In the Northeast, demand in New England could see highs at 15,900 MW on Friday and 16,240 MW on March 5, while load in New York will likely top out at 19,231 MW on Friday and 19,299 MW on March 5. In the mid-Atlantic, PJM Western region demand could crest at 51,189 MW on Friday and 53,682 MW on March 5, while PJM Mid-Atlantic load should hit highs at 35,784 MW on Friday and 36,107 MW at the return of the business week.
In the Midwest, demand in the PJM AEP region should near 15,991 MW on Friday and 17,530 MW on March 5, while load in PJM ComEd is poised to buck the wider uptrend as it is expected to reach highs at 11,894 MW on Friday and 11,785 MW on March 5.
In the South, load in Texas is called to reach 39,510 MW on Friday and 39,037 MW at the start of the next workweek, also running against the dominant uptick.
In the West, demand in California will likely touch a high near 28,080 MW on Friday and 25,067 MW on March 3, but will likely rise March 5 as full industrial and commercial load recovers at the start of the new workweek.
In forward trade, April power predominantly favored the upside in its debut as the front-month offering March 1, in tandem with rising April natural gas futures that implied elevated fueling costs.
In the East, power parcels for April were valued in the low to mid-$30s in transactions about 40 cents higher day on day in New England and near $2 stronger at PJM West. Further along the forward curve, May power products were marked in the low $30s at both hubs.
In the Midwest, April power at the PJM markets defied the broad uptrend with a 50-cent retreat to the low $30s at the AD hub and an almost 80-cent decline to the high $20s at the Northern Illinois hub, but rose by approximately 60 cents to the mid- and high $30s at MISO Indiana. Power for May delivery was assessed in the high $20s to the mid-$30s overall.
In the South, roughly 50-cent gains at the ERCOT hubs took price activity for April power to the mid-$20s into the low $30s. Regional price action for May power spanned the high $20s to the low $30s.
In the West, California saw April power lifted by 60 cents to the high $20s at North Path-15 and bolstered by around 40 cents to the low and mid-$20s at South Path-15. Mid-Columbia April was almost flat on the day in the low to mid-$10s and Palo Verde April was up about 40 cents in the low $20s. May power was quoted in the low $10s at Mid-Columbia and in the low $20s to the low $30s elsewhere in the region.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.
