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'Angel Has Fallen' could fall flat as horror 'Ready or Not' scares up profit

Despite the hot summer temperatures, another cool weekend appears to be lining up in theaters for the weekend of Aug. 23, this time led by Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.

Forecasters expect the studio to lead the weekend with a third installment in the "Fallen" franchise after "Olympus Has Fallen" and "London Has Fallen" barely cut profitability in 2013 and 2016, respectively. However, while "Angel Has Fallen" may collect the most receipts for the weekend, The Walt Disney Co.'s studio Fox Searchlight Pictures Inc. might take home the best margins in the horror-comedy genre with "Ready or Not."

"Ready or Not" got a Wednesday head start on the weekend, already collecting $1.9 million on its opening night, according to Deadline Hollywood. Through Aug. 25, BoxOffice.com expects "Ready or Not" to scare up about $7.1 million in sales for the extended frame, compared to $15 million for the action-adventure "Angel Has Fallen." Variety agrees with the standings, forecasting "Angel Has Fallen" to drop in the $13 million to $15 million range, but it gives "Ready or Not" a better chance than other prognosticators, projecting an opening as high as $12 million.

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Considering openings of $30.4 million and $21.6 million for "Olympus Has Fallen" and "London Has Fallen," respectively, the expectation for the latest installment is low. Lionsgate has not released a production budget for "Angel Has Fallen," but its predecessors cost north of $60 million. However, those two films received only a fraction of their total revenues on domestic gross, with each collecting in the mid-$200 million range over their lifetimes. But even with foreign sales, it will be a nail-biter for "Angel Has Fallen" as each of the prior Fallen films cut very thin margins, taking home $9.0 million and $1.8 million in net profits, respectively, according to Kagan, a media market research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The title will try to avoid the fate of fellow recent action-adventure film "Geostorm," which opened to $13.7 million in 2017 and gusted up a less-than-thrilling net loss of $36.4 million, according to Kagan.

"Ready or Not" will have to fight for its life to reach a similar total revenue mark, based on comparisons compiled by Kagan, but the title likely ran a much more modest budget than "Angel Has Fallen," and the horror genre has had plenty of traction lately. Kagan compares the title to recent successful films like "Get Out," "Don't Breathe" and "Happy Death Day." Two other films in the genre — "Zombieland" and "The Cabin in the Woods" — saw an average opening gross of $25.1 million against an average production budget of $15.0 million. That led to average net profits of $56.6 million.

"The Cabin in the Woods" was the only comparison to open near forecasts for "Ready or Not" at $14.7 million, and despite its cult popularity, it ended up in the red by $16.5 million, according to Kagan.

Critics are certainly ready for "Ready or Not," landing it a 91% "Certified Fresh" rating on critical review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes as of 7:15 p.m. ET, Aug. 22. Meanwhile, they let "Angel Has Fallen" take a dive with a 46% "rotten" score.

Sony Corp.'s Affirm Films will debut faith-based title "Overcomer" to what is forecast to be a modest reception typical for the genre. BoxOffice.com expects a $6.3 million start, in line with forecast estimates from Variety and Deadline.

That would land it near the $5.5 million opening average for Kagan's comparisons, which includes "I Can Only Imagine" at the top of the list of Christian dramas, as well as titles like "The Case for Christ" and "God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness." Those films saw an average total revenue of $44.0 million leading to an average net loss of $8.2 million. However, at a modest $5 million production budget, "Overcomer" would be one of the less expensive titles in the group, behind "The Case for Christ" at $3.0 million.

"Overcomer" had yet to be scored on Rotten Tomatoes as of 7:15 p.m. ET, Aug. 22.