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Equinor sees global oil demand peaking in early 2020s under Paris climate goals

The pace of the transition to a less carbon-intensive world will impact when peak oil demand takes place globally, according to an outlook from Norwegian oil major Equinor ASA.

In its "Energy Perspectives 2018," released June 7, Equinor presented three scenarios, the Renewal, Reform and Rivalry scenarios, in which peak oil demand from 2020 through 2050 varies between 59 million barrels per day and 122 MMbbl/d. This compares to current demand of about 98.5 MMbbl/d in 2017, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

In the Renewal scenario, which is based on efforts to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement on climate change, global oil demand is expected to peak in the early 2020s before dropping to 100 MMbbl/d in 2025 and to just below 60 MMbbl/d by 2050.

In the Reform scenario, which takes into account existing policy and technology development, oil demand is likely to grow to 108 MMbbl/d by 2025 and rise to 111 MMbbl/d by 2030 before falling to 105 MMbbl/d by 2050.

The Rivalry scenario, which is driven by geopolitical conflict and not climate change efforts, sees global oil consumption remaining near 122 MMbbl/d in 2050.

Significant new investments will be needed on the supply front as existing production is seen declining, but at a slower pace than demand.

Formerly known as Statoil ASA, the company changed its name to Equinor in mid-May amid its transition into a "broad energy company." Officials said earlier this year that Equinor plans to invest 15% to 20% of its total CapEx in new energy solutions by 2030.