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AM Power Report: Dailies could advance with load forecasts

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AM Power Report: Dailies could advance with load forecasts

Following a mixed session Dec. 4, power dailies could notch gains Tuesday, Dec. 5, as traders look to predominantly supportive midweek demand projections.

Players will also keep attuned to natural gas trading activity for price direction. Easing 7.6 cents in the prior session, front-month January natural gas futures were aimed lower again early Tuesday. At 6:43 a.m. ET, the contract was down another 4.4 cents to $2.941/MMBtu on profit taking.

Next-day natural gas prices could see varied to mostly lower moves Tuesday, in step with any sustained weakness in the futures arena.

On the demand side, load outlooks for midweek are mostly aimed higher.

In the Northeast, demand in New England is called to reach 16,900 MW on Tuesday and 16,600 MW on Wednesday, while load in New York is expected to crest at 19,887 MW on Tuesday and 20,390 MW on Wednesday. In the Mid-Atlantic, PJM Western region demand is seen touching a high near 53,702 MW on Tuesday and 54,060 MW in the middle of the business week, while PJM Mid-Atlantic load is projected to reach highs at 35,739 MW on Tuesday and 35,489 MW on Wednesday.

In the Midwest, demand in PJM AEP region will likely peak at 16,616 MW on Tuesday and 17,228 MW on Wednesday, while load in PJM ComEd could see highs at 12,695 MW on Tuesday and 13,185 MW at midweek.

In the South, load in Texas could top out 42,017 MW on Tuesday and 46,610 MW on Wednesday. In the West, demand in California should near 31,000 MW on Tuesday and 31,200 MW on Wednesday.

In term trade, the price of power for January 2018 had a mixed but predominantly weak showing in the week's opening session Dec. 4, as retreating front-month natural gas futures signaled a reduction in fueling costs.

In the East, pricing for January 2018 power tacked on almost 40 cents against the broad downtrend to average near $81 in New England and deflated by 75 cents to an index atop $46 at PJM West. Farther along the forward curve, power values for February 2018 were pegged in the high $70s in New England and in the low- to mid-$40s at PJM West.

In the Midwest, power deals for prompt-month delivery shed around 50 cents to average above $40 at PJM AD, but gained roughly $1 to an index at about $39 at PJM Northern Illinois. Prices increased nearly 80 cents to an index above $39 at MISO Indiana. Transactions for February 2018 power were assessed in the high $30s.

In the South, losses of 40-60 cents at the ERCOT markets steered price action for January 2018 power to indexes spread from $25 to atop $29. Regional price activity for February 2018 power spanned the mid-$20s to the low $30s.

In the West, California saw month-ahead power trades unravel $4 to average at approximately $39 at North Path-15 and close to $42 at South Path-15. Similar transactions eased by about 20 cents to an index at roughly $29 at Mid-Columbia and fell by more than $1 to an index at around $28 at Palo Verde. Power deals for February 2018 were done in the high $30s in California and in the mid- to high $20s elsewhere in the region.

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Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.