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Forwards recap: Term prices notch gains on November gas rally

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Forwards recap: Term prices notch gains on November gas rally

Following an impressive rally in natural gas futures alongsidesupportive weather outlooks, term prices across the U.S. were biased higher duringthe week ended Oct. 7.

In gas futures trading, modest gains defined the opening sessionof the workweek Oct. 3 with the front-month November contract adding 1.7 cents toclose at $2.923/MMBtu, which extended by 4.1 cents the following day Oct. 4 to riseto $2.964/MMBtu. Supportive weather outlooks possibly helping to limit bigger storageinjections sent front-month gas on a 7.7-cent increase Oct. 5 to climb back abovethe key $3/MMBtu resistance to settle at $3.041/MMBtu.

November gas extended its winning streak into the Oct. 6 sessionby managing to stay on the positive side of the ledger at $3.049/MMBtu, eking outa 0.8-cent gain despite a larger-than-expected80-Bcf net injection duringthe week ended Sept. 30. Limited outages caused by the arrival of Hurricane Matthewon Oct. 7, drove November gas to a 14.4-cent rally as it closed the workweek ona 14-month high settlement of $3.193/MMBtu. Overall, November gas rose by 27 centsduring the review week.

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At wholesale electricity markets, term prices for November deliveryleaned flat to higher as traders priced power at a premium due to an increase infueling costs owing to a surge in gas futures and with weather forecasts signalinglingering cooling demand.

Following the movement in gas futures, the biggest gains forthe review week were seen at PJM Northern Illinois, where November power was pricedat $32.22 on Oct. 3 and $35.22 on Oct. 7 for a weekly gain of $3.

Elsewhere in the central U.S., PJM AD hub pegged prompt-monthpower at $33.27 on Oct. 3 and $36.23 on Oct. 7, up $2.96 for the week, while MISOIndiana November was exchanged at $35.21 on Oct. 3 and $37.50 on Oct. 7, increasingby $2.29 over the period.

Along the Eastern Seaboard, forward power markets were biasedhigher. PJM West November was quoted at $34.18 on Oct. 3 and $36.12 on Oct. 7, increasingby $1.94 for the week while New York Zone G traded term power for an 81-cent gainin deals done at $32.34 on Oct. 3 and $33.15 on Oct. 7. NEPOOL-Mass November addeda scant 24 cents with power packages changing hands at $34.97 on Oct. 3 and $35.21on Oct. 7.

In Texas, ERCOT North November was assessed at $26.91 on Oct.3 and $29.06 on Oct. 7, for a week-on-week increase of $2.15.

In the western half of the country, power packages also movedhigher with fundamental support. South Path-15 traded November power $1.21 lowerfor the week with deals posted at $34.50 on Oct. 3 and $35.71 on Oct. 7. Novemberpower at Palo Verde rose by $1.05 during the week with trades noted at $26.81 onOct. 3 and $27.86 on Oct. 7. Mid-Columbia November changed hands at $26.94 on Oct.3 and $27.37 on Oct. 7, for a modest 43-cent addition over the review period.

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Market prices andincluded industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subjectto change. For more detailed market data, including power, natural gas and coal index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.