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AM Power Report: US power dailies could soften midweek

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Essential Energy Insights - September 2021


AM Power Report: US power dailies could soften midweek

Next-daypower markets couldsee mostly lower moves during the Wednesday, April 6, session, as traders lookto softer demand outlooks across the country and weakness for natural gasprices.

in the priorsession, May natural gas futures extended lower early Wednesday ahead of theopening bell. At last glance, the front-month contract was trading near$1.928/MMBtu, down another 2.6 cents amid the impending arrival of spring weather and amplenatural gas supply.

Absentany lingering weather support, day-ahead natural gas prices at most regionalhubs are likely to slide in value at midweek, which could likely add to the anybearish leanings at most power markets.

Lookingat load, in the Northeast, demand in New England is projected to touch a highnear 16,300 MW on Wednesday and 15,110 MW on Thursday, while New York load isexpected to top out at 19,318 MW on Wednesday and 18,329 MW on Thursday.

Tothe south in the Mid-Atlantic, demand in the Western region is seen cresting at51,795 MW on Wednesday and 48,290 MW on Thursday. Load in the Mid-Atlanticregion is called to reach 34,560 MW at midweek and 31,100 MW on Thursday.

Inthe Midwest, demand in the AEP region is likely to hit 17,500 MW on Wednesdayand 15,200 MW on Thursday, while load in the ComEd region near Chicago is seenpeaking at 11,330 MW on Wednesday and 11,365 MW on Thursday.

InTexas, load on the ERCOT grid is seen topping out at 39,485 MW on Wednesday and42,400 MW on Thursday. According to the California ISO, demand in the GoldenState is seen reaching highs of 29,930 MW at midweek and 28,486 MW on Thursday.

Alongthe forward curve, the price of power for May delivery was steady to lower inmuch of the country April 5, as weakness at the natural gas futures arenasignaled a reduction in fueling costs for power generators.

Inthe East, trading action for prompt-month power was off nearly 80 cents at anindex at around $32 at NEPOOL-Mass and down by more than $1 at an average atroughly $34 at PJM West, as power deals for delivery further out to Junespanned the low $30s in New England and the mid-$30s at PJM West.

Inthe Midwest, power values for May recoiled by more than $2 to atop $30 at PJMAD and slid by a little more than 50 cents to above $28 at PJM NorthernIllinois, as MISO Indiana May pricing faltered by more than $1 to an indexholding near equal footing with PJM Northern Illinois May activity. Powerprices for June at the three hubs were likewise spread in the high $20s to thelow $30s.

Inthe South, front-month power parcels at the ERCOT markets shed more than $1across the board in transactions carried out between $23 and $26, while powerpackages for June delivery across the region were marked in the high $20soverall.

Inthe West, power deals for May in California were unchanged at near $22 at NorthPath-15 but weaker by 75 cents at an average at roughly $19 at South Path-15,while similar trades were up by more than 10 cents at about $10 at Mid-Columbiaand little changed at around $18 at Palo Verde. Transactions for June powerwere done in the low $10s at Mid-Columbia and in the low $20s elsewhere in theregion.

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Marketprices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication andare subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power andnatural gasindex prices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.