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亚开行将向孟加拉国贷款80亿美元;美联储向中国农业银行发出整改令

Broadband Only Homes Skyrocket In 2018 Validating Top MSOs Connectivity Pivot

Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View


亚开行将向孟加拉国贷款80亿美元;美联储向中国农业银行发出整改令

* Asian Development Bank将在未来5年向孟加拉国提供80亿美元的基础设施和技能训练的贷款,以增强该国经济。

* 美国联邦储备委员会认为Agricultural Bank of China Ltd.纽约分行在银行保密法和反洗钱合规方面存在"严重缺失",并下令限期整改。根据这项整改令的规定Agricultural Bank of China必须提交书面行动计划,说明为改进该分行的合规情况所要采取的行动。

* 据《彭博社》报道,Pacific Investment Management Co. LLC 正在努力希望到2018年获得在中国的本土资质。据报道PIMCO亚太地区的负责人Eric Mogelof表示,近期监管政策的变化促使了这一举动。

* 据《Business Standard》引述"熟悉相关进展的银行家"报道,加拿大Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.试图融资5亿美元,为可能在印度进行的收购提供资金,其中包括收购Catholic Syrian Bank Ltd. 的股份

* 据《Nation报道Thai Asset Bright Company 正与中国电商企业腾讯集团合作,在泰国提供微信支付工具。这项合作的主要受众目标是来泰国旅游的中国游客。

* 据《自由时报》报道Yuanta Commercial Bank Co. Ltd.表示,他们的第一家海外子行——菲律宾东洋储蓄银行(TONG YANG Savings Bank)将更名为元大储蓄银行(菲律宾)(Yuanta Savings Bank Philippines, Inc.)。该行在韩国的子行也很快将更名。

大中华地区

* 据《路透社》报道,自今年1月以来,中国企业在全球股权融资市场的募资总额达1099亿美元,同比下降4.6%。其中,中国企业境外IPO募资总额达288亿美元,同比下降31.6%

* 据《财新网》报道,中国基金业协会副会长张小艾表示,外资机构登记备案的政策已基本明确,该协会的准备工作已基本就绪,欢迎符合条件的外商独资和合资私募证券基金管理机构来协会进行登记备案。

* 据《财新网》报道,在中国内地香港基金互认方案下,截至831日,香港基金内地发行销售累计净汇出金额78.3亿元,而内地基金香港发行销售累计净汇入金额8176万元。香港投资基金公会行政总裁黄王慈明表示,随着中国内地投资者的财富积累以及人民币的贬值预期,他们对资产全球配置的需求也在提升。

* 据《路透社》报道 前中国国家外管局副局长魏本华表示,中国可以在条件适合的时候考虑进一步扩大人民币波幅,并逐渐在外汇交易中心的货币篮子中增加一些与中国贸易比较密切的其他货币品种。该货币篮子目前包括13种货币,魏本华建议增加韩国元、南非兰特、印度卢比和巴西雷亚尔。

* 据《第一财经日报》报道,中国国家外汇管理局(SAFE)否认有关德意志银行将把出售华夏银行股份的所得汇出境外的报道。SAFE表示,境外机构转让境内机构股份可直接在银行办理相关购付汇手续,银行进行真实、合规审核后即可办理,不需要外汇局的批准。

* 据《财新网》报道,李嘉诚基金会披露,由李嘉诚所创办的三个基金会、李嘉诚本人及其子李泽钜合共持有Postal Savings Bank of China Co. Ltd.'s 11.62%H股,相当于邮储银行全部已发行股本的2.8%李嘉诚对该行有绝对信心,并视这个项目为个人的长线投资。

* 据《自由时报》报道,台湾"央行"长彭淮南表示,他将于20182月任期结束后卸任,结束长达20年的行长任期。

日本与韩国

* 东京《日本经济新闻》报道,日本金融厅批准Ashikaga Holdings Co. Ltd.Joyo Bank Ltd.间的整合。作为这项整合的构成部分,两家公司将于101日之前成立Mebuki Financial Group预计新实体的合计资产将超过15亿日元,这将使该实体成为日本按资产计第三大地方银行集团。

* 据《日本经济新闻》报道,日本金融厅将对未从传统银行获得创业资金的企业开展实际调查,以发掘还没发现的潜在需求。

* 据《日本经济新闻》报道Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd.连续第二年启动关于提高存款上限的讨论。今年4月,该行的存款上限从1000万日元提高到了1300万日元。

* 据《Dong-a Ilbo报道Bank of Korea 的数据显示,831韩国抵押担保贷款的利率增长到2.7%环比上涨40个基点。

* 据《Asia Business Newspaper报道,韩国信贷融资研究所(Credit Financing Research Institute)表示,8月该国的信用卡支付交易总额为61.7万亿韩元,同比增长14.9%。该机构认为里约奥运会是造成支出增加的原因。

东南亚

* 据《Post Today报道Bank of Thailand 将提供500亿为期14天的贷款,以吸收过剩的流动性。

* 据《Krungthep Turakij报道Export-Import Bank of Thailand 表示,该行将有能力实现全年180亿泰铢的贷款目标,尽管2016年出口暗淡。截至831日,这家银行批准了总计160亿泰铢的新增贷款。

* 据《Krungthep Turakij》引述泰国国家储蓄基金董事会秘书长Somporn Chitphentom的消息报道,该机构计划构建更高风险的组合,借此提高基金成员的投资回报。至2017年,该基金的新组合将有10%资债券和股权工具。

* 据《Krungthep Turakij报道,泰国财政政策办公室预测第三季度泰国经济已经增长了3.5%这是受到出口增加、公共投资和旅游业的影响。该办公室预测泰国全年GDP长在3.3%

* 据《Kompas》引述印尼财政部的债务负责人Loo Srianita Ginting的消息报道2016年印尼政府已发行超过600亿印尼卢比的债券,发债金额创下新高。

* 据《雅加达环球报》引述《路透社》的消息报道,印尼央行行长Agus Martowardojo表示,他预计至2017年年底印尼的外汇储备可增加380亿美元,其中部分原因是因为该国政府的税务大赦项目。截至今年8月,印尼的外汇储备规模为1135亿美元。

* 据《彭博社》报道,今年第三季度,由于农业和工业部门表现良好,越南经济增速达到6.4%

* 据《Vietnam News报道,近期越南盾存款利率下调之后,越南多家商业银行正考虑将他们的借款利率下调0.3%0.5%该国央行已要求银行下调贷款利率,以帮助促进商业活动。

* 据《Mint》引述两位知悉此事进展的人士的消息报道Religare Finvest Ltd. 计划通过配股的方式,筹资65亿印度卢比。近期曾减记ABG Shipyard Ltd18亿卢比债务的这家公司正考虑将其资本充足率提高至15%

* 据《Mint报道,由于Utkarsh Micro Finance Pvt. Ltd.从国内机构投资者处筹得39.5亿卢比,他们的外资持股比例将会下降。Utkarsh是获得印度储备银行所颁发小银行牌照的十家非银行金融公司之一。

* 据《Business Standard报道,印度央行希望商业银行能够简化并加快向农民发放贷款的流程。

澳大利亚和新西兰

* 据《澳洲人报》报道,澳大利亚金融管理局修改了关于净稳定资金比例要求的规定。预计相关调整将缓解银行之间爆发存款利率竞争的风险。

* 据《澳洲人报》引述美国出版商协会的消息报道 Deutsche Bank AG前外汇交易员因伪造贸易项目以对冲贸易损失收到了澳大利亚证券投资委员会发放的永久禁令。相关项目曾使该行收入激增了2800万欧元。

Sally Wang, Sarun Saelee, Cathy Hwang, Emi White Aditya Suharmoko对此文亦有贡献。

《每日必读》的截稿时间为香港时间早上630分。一些外部链接可能需要额外订阅。


Technology, Media & Telecom
Broadband Only Homes Skyrocket In 2018 Validating Top MSOs Connectivity Pivot

Highlights

The segment stood at an estimated 23.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2018, accounting for 24% of all wireline high-speed data homes.

The following post comes from Kagan, a research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

To learn more about our TMT (Technology, Media & Telecommunications) products and/or research, please request a demo.

Mar. 20 2019 — The U.S. broadband-only home segment logged its largest net adds on record in 2018, validating Comcast Corp.'s and Charter Communications Inc.'s moves to make broadband, or connectivity, the keystone of their cable communication businesses.

The size and momentum of the segment also put in perspective the recent high-profile online-video video announcements by the top two cable operators as well as AT&T Inc.'s WarnerMedia shake-up and plans to go toe-to-toe with Netflix in the subscription video-on-demand arena in the next 12 months.

We estimate that wireline broadband households not subscribing to traditional multichannel, or broadband-only homes, rose by nearly 4.3 million in 2018, topping the gains from the previous year by roughly 22%. Overall, the segment stood at an estimated 23.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2018, accounting for 24% of all wireline high-speed data homes.

For perspective, broadband-only homes stood at an estimated 11.3 million a mere four years ago, accounting for 13% of residential cable and telco broadband subscribers.

The once all-powerful, must-have live linear TV model, which individuals and families essentially treated as a utility upon moving into a new residence, increasingly is viewed as too expensive and unwieldy in the era of affordable, nimble internet-based video alternatives. This has resulted in a sizable drop in penetration of occupied households.

As a result, continued legacy cord cutting is baked in and broadband-only homes are expected to continue to rise at a fast clip, with the segment's momentum in the next few years compounded by Comcast's, Charter's and AT&T's ambitious moves into online-video territory.

Note: we revised historical broadband-only home estimates as part of our fourth-quarter 2018, following restatements of historical telco broadband subscriber figures and residential traditional multichannel subscriber adjustments.

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Q4'18 multichannel video losses propel full-year drop to edge of 4 million

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Listen: Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Mar. 20 2019 — Some fintech companies are making hay with digital platforms that tout their differences with banks, even though they are often offering virtually the same products. In the episode, we discuss with colleagues Rachel Stone and Kiah Haslett the deposit strategies employed by the likes of Chime, Aspiration and other incumbent players such as Ally Financial, Discover and Capital One. Those efforts conjure up memories of a Don Draper pitch in Mad Men and likely will enjoy continued success.

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Watch: Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

Mar. 19 2019 — Steve Piper shares the outlook for U.S. power markets, discussing capacity retirements and whether continued development of wind and solar power plants may mitigate the generation shortfall.

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Credit Analysis
2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

Mar. 15 2019 — On November 20, 2018, a joint event hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence and S&P Global Ratings took place in London, focusing on credit risk and 2019 perspectives.

Pascal Hartwig, Credit Product Specialist, and I provided a review of the latest trends observed across non-financial corporate firms through the lens of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s statistical models.1 In particular, Pascal focused on the outputs produced by a statistical model that uses market information to estimate credit risk of public companies; if you want to know more, you can visit here.

I focused on an analysis of how different Brexit scenarios may impact the credit risk of European Union (EU) private companies that are included on S&P Capital IQ platform.

Before, this, I looked at the evolution of their credit risk profile from 2013 to 2017, as shown in Figure 1. Scores were generated via Credit Analytics’ PD Model Fundamentals Private, a statistical model that uses company financials and other socio-economic factors to estimate the PD of private companies globally. Credit scores are mapped to PD values, which are based on/derived from S&P Global Ratings Observed Default Rates.

Figure 1: EU private company scores generated by PD Model Fundamentals Private, between 2013 and 2017.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.2 As of October 2018.

For any given year, the distribution of credit scores of EU private companies is concentrated below the ‘a’ level, due to the large number of small revenue and unrated firms on the S&P Capital IQ platform. An overall improvement of the risk profile is visible, with the score distribution moving leftwards between 2013 and 2017. A similar picture is visible when comparing companies by country or industry sector,3 confirming that there were no clear signs of a turning point in the credit cycle of private companies in any EU country or industry sector. However, this view is backward looking and does not take into account the potential effects of an imminent and major political and economic event in the (short) history of the EU: Brexit.

To this purpose, S&P Global Market Intelligence has developed a statistical model: the Credit Analytics Macro-scenario model enables users to study how potential future macroeconomic scenarios may affect the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU private companies. This model was developed by looking at the historical evolution of S&P Global Ratings’ rated companies under different macroeconomic conditions, and can be applied to smaller companies after the PD is mapped to a S&P Global Market Intelligence credit score.

“Soft Brexit” (Figure 2): This scenario is based on the baseline forecast made by economists at S&P Global Ratings and is characterized by a gentle slow-down of economic growth, a progressive monetary policy tightening, and low yet volatile stock-market growth.4

Figure 2: “Soft Brexit” macro scenario.5

Source: S&P Global Ratings Economists. As of October 2018.

Applying the Macro-scenario model, we analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over a three-year period from 2018 to 2020, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 3):
    • The median credit risk score within specific industry sectors (Aerospace & Defense, Pharmaceuticals, Telecoms, Utilities, and Real Estate) shows a good degree of resilience, rising by less than half a notch by 2020 and remaining comfortably below the ‘b+’ threshold.
    • The median credit score of the Retail and Consumer Products sectors, however, is severely impacted, breaching the high risk threshold (here defined at the ‘b-’ level).
    • The remaining industry sectors show various dynamics, but essentially remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 3: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

  • Country Analysis (Figure 4):
    • Although the median credit risk score may not change significantly in certain countries, the associated default rates need to be adjusted for the impact of the credit cycle.6 The “spider-web plot” shows the median PD values for private companies within EU countries, adjusted for the credit cycle. Here we include only countries with a minimum number of private companies within the Credit Analytics pre-scored database, to ensure a robust statistical analysis.
    • Countries are ordered by increasing level of median PD, moving clock-wise from Netherlands to Greece.
    • Under a soft Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2018 and 2020, but still remains below the yellow threshold (corresponding to a ‘b+’ level).
    • Interestingly, Italian private companies suffer more than their Spanish peers, albeit starting from a slightly lower PD level in 2017.

Figure 4: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

“Hard Brexit” (Figure 5): This scenario is extracted from the 2018 Stress-Testing exercise of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Bank of England.7 Under this scenario, both the EU and UK may go into a recession similar to the 2008 global crisis. Arguably, this may seem a harsh scenario for the whole of the EU, but a recent report by the Bank of England warned that a disorderly Brexit may trigger a UK crisis worse than 2008.8

Figure 5: “Hard Brexit” macro scenario.9

Sources:”2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (European Banking Authority, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies“ (Bank of England, March 2018).

Also in this case, we apply the Macro-scenario model to analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over the same three-year period, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 6):
    • Despite all industry sectors being severely impacted, the Pharmaceuticals and Utilities sectors remain below the ‘b+’ level (yellow threshold).
    • Conversely, the Airlines and Energy sectors join Retail and Consumer Products in the “danger zone” above the ‘b-’ level (red threshold).
    • The remaining industry sectors will either move into or remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 6: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

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  • Country Analysis (Figure 7):
    • Under a hard Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2017 and 2020, entering the intermediate risk band and suffering even more than its Irish peers.
    • Notably, by 2020 the French private sector may suffer more than the Italian private sector, reaching the attention threshold (here shown as a red circle, and corresponding to a ‘b-’ level).
    • While it is hard to do an exact like-for-like comparison, it is worth noting that our conclusions are broadly aligned with the findings from the 48 banks participating in the 2018 stress-testing exercise, as recently published by the EBA:10 the major share of 2018-2020 new credit risk losses in the stressed scenario will concentrate among counterparties in the UK, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany (leaving aside the usual suspects, such as Greece, Portugal, etc.).

Figure 7: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In conclusion: In Europe, the private companies’ credit risk landscape does not yet signal a distinct turning point, however Brexit may act as a pivot point and a catalyst for a credit cycle inversion, with an intensity that will be dependent on the Brexit type of landing (i.e., soft versus hard).

1 S&P Global Ratings does not contribute to or participate in the creation of credit scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
2 Lowercase nomenclature is used to differentiate S&P Global Market Intelligence credit scores from the credit ratings issued by S&P Global Ratings.
3 Not shown here.
4 Measured via Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth, Long-term / Short-term (L/S) European Central Bank Interest Rate Spread, and FTSE100 or STOXX50 stock market growth, respectively.
5 Macroeconomic forecast for 2018-2020 (end of year) by economists at S&P Global Ratings; the baseline case assumes the UK and the EU will reach a Brexit deal (e.g. a “soft Brexit”).
6 When the credit cycle deteriorates (improves), default rates are expected to increase (decrease).
7 Source: “2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (EBA, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies”. (Bank of England, March 2018).
8 Source: “EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability – A response to the House of Commons Treasury Committee”. (Bank of England, November 2018).
9 As a hard Brexit scenario, we adopt the stressed scenario included in the 2018 stress testing exercise and defined by the EBA and the Bank of England.
10 See, for example, Figure 18 in “2018 EU-Wide Stress Test Result” (EBA November 2018), found at:https://eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/2419200/2018-EU-wide-stress-test-Results.pdf

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2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market-Driven View

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