Withthe exception of the Rockies, warmer-than-usual weather is projected across muchof the United States from August through October, according to The Weather Company'slatest monthly forecast issued July 26. The hottest region is likely to extend fromthe south-central U.S. to the Northeast.
"Weare predicting that the total energy demand (as expressed in population-weightedcooling degree days) for the June-August period will rival the historically hotsummers of 2010-12. In addition, very early indications for the winter, simply usingthe assumption of weak La Niña conditions, suggest a potentially colder result thanseen in recent years," Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company,said.
In August,warmer-than-normal conditions are expected in all regions, except for several statesin the north-central U.S., including North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and Minnesota.
"Thewarmer weather has kept power burns stout throughout July with the hottest dayshitting 38 Bcf. What is interesting is the highest power burn number last year wasaround 39.2 BCF (July 29th) which showed less net load," Jeff Richter, principalat EnergyGPS, said in the forecast. "The reason for the number to be slightlylower despite higher net load is due to renewable penetration across the countryyear on year. With production numbers shifting up for the month of July, the gridis holding onto the current price level because of the extreme heat expected intoAugust."
In September,warmer-than-average conditions are projected for most of the U.S., except for Montanaand North Dakota.
In October,warmer-than-normal conditions are expected for a majority of the country, exceptfor the Pacific Northwest and Southwest, which should see cooler-than-usual weatherduring the month.
The WeatherCompany will issue its next seasonal outlook Aug. 22.
Weather Company still sees activehurricane season
The WeatherCompany is still calling for a very busy hurricane season in the Atlantic Basinthis year, with the latter half of the period likely to be the most active since2012. The forecasters are still anticipating the formation of 15 named storms, includingnine hurricanes, four of which are likely to be major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricaneseason runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Accordingto a July 26 update from Williams Capital Group LP, the latest statistical observationsof El Niño suggest an ongoing weakening in El Niño surface sea temperatures in Juneand July.
"WhileEl Niño is clearly dissipating statistically, warm waters continue to surround theU.S., with lingering El Niño effects likely to continue producing above normal temperaturesand unusual precipitation through fall, in our view," Williams Capital wrote.