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AM Power Report: Dailies could end week buoyed by load forecasts


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AM Power Report: Dailies could end week buoyed by load forecasts

Power dailies could end the workweek biased higher Friday, Oct. 6, amid predominantly stronger demand expected coming off the weekend.

Participants will also watch natural gas market activity. Losing 1.7 cents in the prior session, NYMEX front-month November natural gas futures were extending lower early Friday ahead of the opening bell. At 6:30 a.m. ET, the contract was down 1.5 cents to trade near $2.908/MMBtu.

Day-ahead natural gas prices are likely to come under some pressure Friday, with the losses in futures coupled with the inclusion of the lower-load weekend days in the three-day trading package likely to offer typical pressure on values.

In terms of demand, grid operators see elevated load in much of the country at the start of the next workweek on Oct. 9, helped by the typical post-weekend recovery in business-related demand.

In the Northeast, demand in New England could crest at 14,990 MW on Friday and 16,920 MW on Oct. 9, while load in New York will likely hit highs at 19,150 MW on Friday and 20,634 MW on Oct. 9. In the Mid-Atlantic, PJM Western region load is seen peaking at 52,381 MW on Friday and 54,492 MW on Oct. 9, while PJM Mid-Atlantic demand should near 37,165 MW on Friday and 40,069 MW on Oct. 9.

In the Midwest, demand in the PJM AEP region will likely see highs at 16,641 MW on Friday and 17,011 MW at the start of the next business week, while load in PJM ComEd is called to reach 12,159 MW on Friday and 12,295 MW on Oct. 9.

In the South, Texas demand could touch a high near 54,867 MW on Friday and 59,869 MW on Oct. 9.

In the West, load in California could top out at 32,170 MW on Friday and 30,890 MW on Oct. 7 but should find some upside support Oct. 9, as full industrial and commercial load recovers at the start of the new business week.

In forward trade, power deals for November delivery had a mixed but predominantly strong showing Oct. 5, as weather-related demand support in the mid-range reflected more on values at most locations than did losses at the natural gas futures arena that implied cheaper fueling costs.

In the East, front-month power transactions rose by about 60 cents to an index above $35 in New England but deflated by nearly 40 cents to average atop $32 at PJM West. Along the forward curve, power deals for December were assessed in the high $50s in New England and in the high $30s at PJM West.

In the Midwest, a roughly 10-cent slump took PJM AD November deals to an average at almost $33, as a better-than-$1 gain steered PJM Northern Illinois November to an index above $31, and a 5-cent uptick nudged MISO Indiana November to an index at roughly $34. Power for December delivery was marked in the low to high $30s overall.

In the South, pricing for month-ahead power was almost unchanged at an average at approximately $30 at ERCOT Houston but was up about 10 cents to 20 cents at indexes spread from $21 to atop $26 at the rest of the ERCOT markets. Regional price action for December power likewise spanned the low to high $20s.

In the West, California saw power values for November unravel by 50 cents to average atop $37 at North Path-15 and fall by 40 cents to an index close to $35 at South Path-15, as Mid-Columbia November climbed by 30 cents to an average at almost $25, and Palo Verde November rose by about 80 cents to an index at roughly $27. Power prices for December were pegged in the high $30s in California and in the high $20s to the low $30s elsewhere in the region.

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Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.