trending Market Intelligence /marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/DaACXpe3qCglgO4JqOajHQ2 content
Log in to other products

Login to Market Intelligence Platform


Looking for more?

Contact Us

Request a Demo

You're one step closer to unlocking our suite of comprehensive and robust tools.

Fill out the form so we can connect you to the right person.

If your company has a current subscription with S&P Global Market Intelligence, you can register as a new user for access to the platform(s) covered by your license at Market Intelligence platform or S&P Capital IQ.

  • First Name*
  • Last Name*
  • Business Email *
  • Phone *
  • Company Name *
  • City *
  • We generated a verification code for you

  • Enter verification Code here*

* Required

Thank you for your interest in S&P Global Market Intelligence! We noticed you've identified yourself as a student. Through existing partnerships with academic institutions around the globe, it's likely you already have access to our resources. Please contact your professors, library, or administrative staff to receive your student login.

At this time we are unable to offer free trials or product demonstrations directly to students. If you discover that our solutions are not available to you, we encourage you to advocate at your university for a best-in-class learning experience that will help you long after you've completed your degree. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

In This List

EIA increases 2020 oil price outlook more than 7% on Middle East tensions

European Energy Insights July 2020

As COVID-19 Wears On, Regulators Examine Moratorium Extensions, Cost Recovery

Essential Energy Insights - June 11, 2020

Webinar Replay

Deep Dive on Oil & Gas for Financial Institutions

EIA increases 2020 oil price outlook more than 7% on Middle East tensions

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its 2020 crude oil price outlook by more than 7%, citing intensifying geopolitical risks, OPEC production cuts and favorable macroeconomic trends.

On Jan. 2, the U.S. killed a leading Iranian military commander in Iraq, and Iran responded five days later by targeting U.S. bases in Iraq with a volley of ballistic missiles. In response to the direct conflict between the U.S. and Iran, analysts increased their crude oil price outlooks. The EIA noted that front-month Brent crude oil prices traded above $70 per barrel "for short periods during each day" from Jan. 5-7, "a level not seen since the September 14 attack on Saudi Aramco facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais."

"EIA assumes that OPEC will limit production through all of 2020 and 2021 to maintain relatively balanced global oil markets," the agency wrote Jan. 14. "The conclusion of phase one of a trade deal between the United States and China to be signed on January 15, as well as improved macroeconomic indicators such as the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast and the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey suggest an improved economic outlook."

In its latest "Short-Term Energy Outlook," the EIA projected that West Texas Intermediate spot crude oil prices will climb from an average of $57.02/bbl in 2019 to $59.25/bbl in 2020 before averaging $62.03/bbl in 2021. The 2020 projection is up 7.7% from the prior forecast.

In 2019, Brent crude oil averaged $64.36/bbl. The EIA expects the global benchmark price to increase to $64.83/bbl in 2020, up 7.1% from the prior forecast, before climbing to $67.53/bbl in 2021.

According to the EIA, U.S. crude oil production averaged a record 12.24 million barrels per day in 2019. The EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.30 million bbl/d in 2020 and 13.71 million bbl/d in 2021.

During 2019, WTI traded at an average $7.34/bbl discount to Brent. The government expects the average discount to narrow to $5.58/bbl in 2020 before continuing lower to $5.50/bbl in 2021.