Retail imports at U.S. container ports are expected to increase in November ahead of expanded China tariffs, the National Retail Federation said Oct. 9.
The industry group expects November imports to hit 1.97 million 20-foot equivalent units, or TEU. A TEU is a 20-foot-long cargo container or its equivalent. This would tie August as the second-highest number of containers in one month after October 2018's 2 million TEU, according to the National Retail Federation, or NRF.
The U.S. imported 1.97 million TEU, in August, the latest month with available data, the NRF said in its Oct. 9 Global Port Tracker report with maritime consulting firm Hackett Associates. This was up 3.9% year over year and up 0.2% from July.
The 15% tariffs that went into effect Sept. 1 covered a range of consumer goods from China and are set to cover additional goods starting Dec. 15, impacting approximately $300 billion in imports. On Oct. 15, tariffs on $250 billion worth of imports will increase to 30% from 25%, according to the NRF.
"This is the last chance to bring merchandise into the country before virtually everything the United States imports from China comes under tariffs," Jonathan Gold, the NRF's vice president of supply chain and customs policy, said in a news release.
The NRF expects 1.9 million TEU for September, up 1.6% year over year, and issued the following forecasts for the coming months:
October: 1.93 million TEU, down 5.1% year over year
November: 1.97 million TEU, up 8.9% year over year
December: 1.78 million TEU, down 9.3% year over year
January 2020: 1.86 million TEU, down 1.9% year over year
February 2020: 1.59 million TEU, down 1.8% year over year
The group said December imports are usually lower since companies have already received their holiday merchandise.
The first half of 2019 had 10.5 million TEU, up 2.1% compared with the first half of 2018. Full year 2019 is expected to reach a record 22 million TEU, up 1.2% year over year, according to the NRF.
"Retailers are doing all they can to mitigate the impact of tariffs on their customers," Gold said. "The effect on prices will vary by retailer and product during the holiday season, but ultimately these taxes on America businesses and consumers will result in higher prices. We urge the administration to use this week's talks with China to make progress toward ending the trade war and return to policies that promote long-term economic growth and prosperity for American families."
