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Local stations to score double-digit ad sales gain during 2020 political cycle

A heated presidential election cycle is expected to drive up local broadcast stations' political advertising revenue by double-digit gains over 2016 levels as President Donald Trump turns to more traditional media buys versus candidate Trump's earned media play, according to analysts.

Spending on local broadcast television stations could reach the $3.20 billion mark for the 2020 period, according to Steve Passwaiter, vice president and general manager for CMAG, media measurement and analytics firm Kantar Media Intelligences Inc.'s political ad intelligence unit. Passwaiter spoke to attendees at the Television Bureau of Advertising Forward conference on Sept. 26.

Reaching that milestone would represent a 12.3% rise from the $2.85 billion allocated in 2016. It would also exceed the record $3.0 billion spent on broadcast TV by candidates, political action committees and other entities during the 2018 mid-term election period.

Kantar/CMAG anticipates that local cable will see $1.20 billion in political ad spending, matching its 2018 take but well ahead of 2016's $850 million in local cable political advertising.

Digital political ad spending is expected to double to $1.20 billion from $600 million in 2016, or 20% over the $1 billion allocated on political digital ads during 2018, according to Kantar/CMAG. Passwaiter said Facebook Inc. and Google LLC might account for 60% of the spending within for the 2020 election cycle.

Like Kantar, Smart Media, a buying agency with a focus on the political category, forecasts political ad spending in the $6 billion range for the 2020 period. Smart Media President Kyle Roberts pegged local broadcast claiming between $2.7 billion and $2.8 billion. Roberts said the agency expects digital video to emerge as a major player, with some $1.60 billion, a total that will surpass cable.

Passwaiter said OTT and connected TVs, with their targeting and data capabilities, should gain sway during this cycle; however, those opportunities are collared by their relatively small inventory pools.

At this stage, Facebook is the leader in political spending for the 2020 election cycle, tallying some $34 million in ad sales, and the Trump reelection campaign is the largest spender to date. In comparison, at the corresponding point in 2015, Facebook had placed some $140 million worth of political ads.

Mark Putnam, president and founder of Putman Partners, another agency in the political arena, said data will play an even more critical role in determining what states and communities candidates will budget against during the upcoming cycle, with some efforts drilling down to which specific households are key local influencers.

Battleground states are expected to draw significant political ad dollars, including in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to Passwaiter. Trump wants to expand the base that supports him and is eyeing large campaign efforts in Minnesota and New Mexico, Passwaiter said.

Phoenix, where House and Senate races are in play, should be hotter than the local desert temperatures on election day, Passwaiter joked. He also pointed to Des Moines, Iowa; Lansing, Mich.; LaCrosse, Green Bay and Milwaukee, Wis.; and Philadelphia as other hot political markets in 2020.