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Generali concorda em vender negócios na Guatemala; greve bancária no Brasil continua

Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market Driven View


Generali concorda em vender negócios na Guatemala; greve bancária no Brasil continua

* A seguradora italiana Generali concordou em vender aos seus parceiros locais a participação de 51% que detém na unidade guatemalteca Aseguradora Generali SA, que atua principalmente no segmento de bens e acidentes. A Generali não divulgou os nomes dos compradores nem os termos do acordo, que está sujeito a aprovação regulamentar.

* Os sindicatos dos bancários do Brasil continuam em greve após rejeitarem a proposta salarial mais recente feita pela FENABAN, informou a Folha de S. Paulo. Na última proposta, a FENABAN aumentou a oferta de pagamento de um bônus de R$ 3.300,00 para R$ 3.500,00, mas manteve a oferta de aumento salarial inalterada em 7%. A greve entra no 24º dia em 29 de setembro.

MÉXICO E AMÉRICA CENTRAL

* A S&P Global Ratings confirmou as notas de crédito soberano de longo e curto prazo do Panamá como BBB e A-2, respectivamente, com perspectiva estável. A economia do país deve continuar crescendo a 5,5% em 2016 e 2017, com crescimento de 6% previsto para os dois anos seguintes. No entanto, as notas podem cair devido à vulnerabilidade do Panamá às oscilações bruscas nas condições econômicas globais, entre outros fatores.

* O banco mexicano Nacional Financiera S.N.C. Institución de Banca de Desarrollo finalizou a divulgação de uma possível venda de títulos em dólares dos EUA, enquanto o Banco Mercantil del Norte SA Institución de Banca Múltiple também encerrou a apresentação de um título baseado nas regras de Nível 2 do Basileia III para investidores globais, informou a IFR.

* O Global Bank Corp. informou que o Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. pretende lançar uma oferta pública de aquisição em dinheiro de todas as notas em circulação a 4,750% com vencimento em 2017 emitidas pelo Global Bank no âmbito do programa de cobertura de títulos no valor de 500 milhões de dólares. O Deutsche Bank pretende vender para o Global Bank as notas que adquirir na oferta pública.

* José Oriol Bosch, diretor da Bolsa de Valores Mexicana BMV, disse que a bolsa tem observado um clima favorável para ofertas públicas, apesar da volatilidade política e econômica, tanto nos EUA como no México, informou o El Financiero. A BMV está atualmente avaliando quatro solicitações feitas para essas ofertas.

* A Fitch Ratings anunciou que os gigantes bancários globais que têm unidades no México dariam grande apoio às suas subsidirárias, se necessário, informou o El Economista. Esse apoio teria impacto mínimo sobre o perfil financeiro da matriz, segundo a Fitch informou, argumentando que o apoio estaria disponível uma vez que o México é um mercado estrategicamente importante.

BRASIL

* O índice de crédito com mais de 90 dias em atraso no setor bancário do Brasil manteve-se a 5,7% em agosto, inalterado em relação ao mês anterior, segundo dados do Banco Central do Brasil. O total de operações de crédito atingiu cerca de 3,12 trilhões de reais no final de agosto, uma ligeira alteração em relação ao mês anterior, mas caiu cerca de 0,6% no comparativo anual. O Banco Central espera que as operações de crédito provenientes de bancos comerciais caiam 2% em 2016, em comparação com a previsão anterior, que era de uma expansão de 1%, informou a Reuters.

* A S&P Global Ratings elevou de B+ para BB- a nota de crédito de emissor em escala global de longo prazo e de brBBB-/brA-3 para brA-/brA-2 as notas de crédito de emissor em escala nacional do Banco BTG Pactual SA. A S&P também retirou todas as notas do alerta (CreditWatch) negativo, observando que o banco conseguiu melhorar a liquidez desde a prisão do ex-CEO André Esteves e está agora em boa posição para cumprir as obrigações de curto prazo.

* No Brasil, os bancos de pequeno e médio porte tiveram que adotar novos modelos de negócios a fim de prosperar em meio às turbulências do ambiente operacional, informou a Fitch Ratings. Para lidar com os desafios, que incluem baixa demanda doméstica, alguns bancos têm optado por não negociar suas ações na Bolsa, enquanto outros têm estabelecido parcerias com bancos de primeira linha.

* Segundo analistas da Fitch Ratings, os bancos estatais brasileiros Banco do Brasil S.A. e Caixa Econômica Federal talvez precisem de injeção de capital por parte do governo em 2018, a menos que, antes, consigam aumentar as reservas de capital, informou a Reuters.

* Rafael Guedes, diretor executivo da Fitch Ratings, disse que a agência deve reavaliar as notas soberanas do Brasil nos próximos 12 a 18 meses, informou o Valor Econômico. Segundo Guedes, após um período de rápida deterioração, a Fitch agora vê sinais de melhora na economia do país.

* João Albino Winkelmann, diretor do comitê de bancos privados da ANBIMA (Associação Brasileira das Entidas dos Mercados Financeiros e de Capitais), disse que as regras do programa de repatriação de ativos do país deve ser flexível para que os titulares de cargos públicos também possam trazer de volta os ativos não declarados que detêm no exterior, informou o Valor Econômico.

* O BTG Pactual Group anunciou que acionistas minoritários que optaram por receber juros sobre capital da Engelhart, uma nova empresa sediada em Luxemburgo criada com a finalidade de separar o segmento de comércio de commodities do BTG, representam apenas 0,4% do capital da nova empresa, informou o Valor Econômico. Em função disso, segundo o banco, a participação do BTG Pactual na Engelhart será diluída de 91,9% para 36,1%.

REGIÃO ANDINA

* O Peru iniciou uma venda de títulos no valor de 806,8 milhões de soles peruanos, com rendimento de 6,375%, informou a IFR, citando um banco que participa da transação. O país também anunciou uma oferta pública de aquisição em dinheiro de seus títulos soberanos com vencimento em 2017, 2020, 2023 e 2026, bem como de seus títulos globais com vencimento em 2019, 2025, 2033 e 2037.

CONE SUL

* A Banchile Compañía de Seguros de Vida S.A. informou que sua diretoria nomeou o diretor Gonzalo Menéndez Duque para ocupar o cargo de vice-presidente, substituindo Jorge Ergas Heymann.

* O Banco de Galicia y Buenos Aires SA, da Argentina, deve receber ofertas não vinculantes pelas suas empresas de serviços financeiros "Efectivo Sí" na primeira semana de outubro, informou o El Cronista. A empresa valeria entre 100 milhões e 120 milhões de dólares.

* A ABIF, associação bancária do Chile, apoia a ideia de que a processadora de pagamentos com cartão Transbank S.A. desenvolva um sistema para processar transações relacionadas a cartões de débito pré-pagos emitidos por entidades não bancárias no país, informou o Diario Financiero, citando Segismundo Schulin-Zeuthen, presidente da ABIF.

PANORAMA DA AMÉRICA LATINA

* Confrontados com baixas taxas de juros, mais regulamentos e ameaças de segurança cibernética, os bancos não têm escolha senão implantar recursos de inteligência artificial a fim de manter a rentabilidade, de acordo com Sergio Ermotti, CEO do UBS Group AG. Uma das principais razões pelas quais os bancos têm lutado para atrair investidores nos últimos anos é o custo crescente com pessoal administrativo, disse o executivo em uma conferência em Genebra.

* Thomas Curry, diretor do Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (órgão fiscalizador dos bancos nacionais) dos EUA, disse que o órgão orientará os bancos sobre como atender às normas de combate à lavagem de dinheiro sem colocar termo às relações que consideram arriscadas, informou a Reuters.

A S&P Global Inc. adquire S&P Global Ratings e Global Market Intelligence.

Paula Mejía contribuiu para esse artigo.

The Daily Dose tem um prazo editorial de 8:00 am horário de São Paulo, e verifica as fontes de notícias publicadas em inglês, português e espanhol. Alguns links externos podem exigir uma assinatura.


Listen: Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Mar. 20 2019 — Some fintech companies are making hay with digital platforms that tout their differences with banks, even though they are often offering virtually the same products. In the episode, we discuss with colleagues Rachel Stone and Kiah Haslett the deposit strategies employed by the likes of Chime, Aspiration and other incumbent players such as Ally Financial, Discover and Capital One. Those efforts conjure up memories of a Don Draper pitch in Mad Men and likely will enjoy continued success.

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Watch: Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

Mar. 19 2019 — Steve Piper shares the outlook for U.S. power markets, discussing capacity retirements and whether continued development of wind and solar power plants may mitigate the generation shortfall.

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Credit Analysis
2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

Mar. 15 2019 — On November 20, 2018, a joint event hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence and S&P Global Ratings took place in London, focusing on credit risk and 2019 perspectives.

Pascal Hartwig, Credit Product Specialist, and I provided a review of the latest trends observed across non-financial corporate firms through the lens of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s statistical models.1 In particular, Pascal focused on the outputs produced by a statistical model that uses market information to estimate credit risk of public companies; if you want to know more, you can visit here.

I focused on an analysis of how different Brexit scenarios may impact the credit risk of European Union (EU) private companies that are included on S&P Capital IQ platform.

Before, this, I looked at the evolution of their credit risk profile from 2013 to 2017, as shown in Figure 1. Scores were generated via Credit Analytics’ PD Model Fundamentals Private, a statistical model that uses company financials and other socio-economic factors to estimate the PD of private companies globally. Credit scores are mapped to PD values, which are based on/derived from S&P Global Ratings Observed Default Rates.

Figure 1: EU private company scores generated by PD Model Fundamentals Private, between 2013 and 2017.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.2 As of October 2018.

For any given year, the distribution of credit scores of EU private companies is concentrated below the ‘a’ level, due to the large number of small revenue and unrated firms on the S&P Capital IQ platform. An overall improvement of the risk profile is visible, with the score distribution moving leftwards between 2013 and 2017. A similar picture is visible when comparing companies by country or industry sector,3 confirming that there were no clear signs of a turning point in the credit cycle of private companies in any EU country or industry sector. However, this view is backward looking and does not take into account the potential effects of an imminent and major political and economic event in the (short) history of the EU: Brexit.

To this purpose, S&P Global Market Intelligence has developed a statistical model: the Credit Analytics Macro-scenario model enables users to study how potential future macroeconomic scenarios may affect the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU private companies. This model was developed by looking at the historical evolution of S&P Global Ratings’ rated companies under different macroeconomic conditions, and can be applied to smaller companies after the PD is mapped to a S&P Global Market Intelligence credit score.

“Soft Brexit” (Figure 2): This scenario is based on the baseline forecast made by economists at S&P Global Ratings and is characterized by a gentle slow-down of economic growth, a progressive monetary policy tightening, and low yet volatile stock-market growth.4

Figure 2: “Soft Brexit” macro scenario.5

Source: S&P Global Ratings Economists. As of October 2018.

Applying the Macro-scenario model, we analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over a three-year period from 2018 to 2020, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 3):
    • The median credit risk score within specific industry sectors (Aerospace & Defense, Pharmaceuticals, Telecoms, Utilities, and Real Estate) shows a good degree of resilience, rising by less than half a notch by 2020 and remaining comfortably below the ‘b+’ threshold.
    • The median credit score of the Retail and Consumer Products sectors, however, is severely impacted, breaching the high risk threshold (here defined at the ‘b-’ level).
    • The remaining industry sectors show various dynamics, but essentially remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 3: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

  • Country Analysis (Figure 4):
    • Although the median credit risk score may not change significantly in certain countries, the associated default rates need to be adjusted for the impact of the credit cycle.6 The “spider-web plot” shows the median PD values for private companies within EU countries, adjusted for the credit cycle. Here we include only countries with a minimum number of private companies within the Credit Analytics pre-scored database, to ensure a robust statistical analysis.
    • Countries are ordered by increasing level of median PD, moving clock-wise from Netherlands to Greece.
    • Under a soft Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2018 and 2020, but still remains below the yellow threshold (corresponding to a ‘b+’ level).
    • Interestingly, Italian private companies suffer more than their Spanish peers, albeit starting from a slightly lower PD level in 2017.

Figure 4: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

“Hard Brexit” (Figure 5): This scenario is extracted from the 2018 Stress-Testing exercise of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Bank of England.7 Under this scenario, both the EU and UK may go into a recession similar to the 2008 global crisis. Arguably, this may seem a harsh scenario for the whole of the EU, but a recent report by the Bank of England warned that a disorderly Brexit may trigger a UK crisis worse than 2008.8

Figure 5: “Hard Brexit” macro scenario.9

Sources:”2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (European Banking Authority, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies“ (Bank of England, March 2018).

Also in this case, we apply the Macro-scenario model to analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over the same three-year period, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 6):
    • Despite all industry sectors being severely impacted, the Pharmaceuticals and Utilities sectors remain below the ‘b+’ level (yellow threshold).
    • Conversely, the Airlines and Energy sectors join Retail and Consumer Products in the “danger zone” above the ‘b-’ level (red threshold).
    • The remaining industry sectors will either move into or remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 6: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

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  • Country Analysis (Figure 7):
    • Under a hard Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2017 and 2020, entering the intermediate risk band and suffering even more than its Irish peers.
    • Notably, by 2020 the French private sector may suffer more than the Italian private sector, reaching the attention threshold (here shown as a red circle, and corresponding to a ‘b-’ level).
    • While it is hard to do an exact like-for-like comparison, it is worth noting that our conclusions are broadly aligned with the findings from the 48 banks participating in the 2018 stress-testing exercise, as recently published by the EBA:10 the major share of 2018-2020 new credit risk losses in the stressed scenario will concentrate among counterparties in the UK, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany (leaving aside the usual suspects, such as Greece, Portugal, etc.).

Figure 7: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In conclusion: In Europe, the private companies’ credit risk landscape does not yet signal a distinct turning point, however Brexit may act as a pivot point and a catalyst for a credit cycle inversion, with an intensity that will be dependent on the Brexit type of landing (i.e., soft versus hard).

1 S&P Global Ratings does not contribute to or participate in the creation of credit scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
2 Lowercase nomenclature is used to differentiate S&P Global Market Intelligence credit scores from the credit ratings issued by S&P Global Ratings.
3 Not shown here.
4 Measured via Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth, Long-term / Short-term (L/S) European Central Bank Interest Rate Spread, and FTSE100 or STOXX50 stock market growth, respectively.
5 Macroeconomic forecast for 2018-2020 (end of year) by economists at S&P Global Ratings; the baseline case assumes the UK and the EU will reach a Brexit deal (e.g. a “soft Brexit”).
6 When the credit cycle deteriorates (improves), default rates are expected to increase (decrease).
7 Source: “2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (EBA, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies”. (Bank of England, March 2018).
8 Source: “EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability – A response to the House of Commons Treasury Committee”. (Bank of England, November 2018).
9 As a hard Brexit scenario, we adopt the stressed scenario included in the 2018 stress testing exercise and defined by the EBA and the Bank of England.
10 See, for example, Figure 18 in “2018 EU-Wide Stress Test Result” (EBA November 2018), found at:https://eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/2419200/2018-EU-wide-stress-test-Results.pdf

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2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market-Driven View

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Credit Analysis
2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market Driven View

Mar. 15 2019 — On November 20, 2018, a joint event hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence and S&P Global Ratings took place in London, focusing on credit risk and 2019 perspectives.

Giorgio Baldassarri, Global Head of the Analytic Development Group, and I provided a review of the latest trends observed across non-financial corporate firms through the lens of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s statistical models.1 In particular, Giorgio focused on the analysis of the evolution of the credit risk profile of European Union companies between 2013 and 2017, and how this may change under various Brexit scenario; if you want to know more, you can visit here.

I started with an overview of key trends of the credit risk of public companies at a global level, before diving deeper into regional and industry sector-specific performance and pointing out some key drivers of country- and industry-level risk. Credit Analytics Probability of Default (PD) Market Signals model was used to derive these statistics. This is a structural model (enhanced Merton approach) that produces PD values for all public corporates and financial institutions globally. Credit scores are mapped to PD values, which are derived from S&P Global Ratings observed default rates (ODRs).

From January 2018 to October 2018, we saw an increase in the underlying PD values generated by PD Market Signals across all regional S&P Broad Market Indices (BMIs), as shown in Figure 1. For Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America, the overall increase was primarily driven by the significant shift in February 2018, which saw an increase in the PD between 100% to 300% on a relative basis. The main mover on an absolute basis was Latin America, which had a PD increase of over 0.35 percentage points.

Figure 1: BMI Benchmark Median credit scores generated by PD Market Signals, between January 1 and October 1, 2018.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

Moving to the S&P Europe BMI in Figure 2, we can further isolate three of the main drivers behind the overall increase in PDs (this time measured on a relative basis), namely Netherlands, France, and Austria. Among these, the Netherlands had the most prominent increase between August and October. Again, one can identify the significant increase in the PDs in February, ranging from 150% to 230%, across all three countries. Towards July, we saw the spread between the three outliers shrink significantly. In August and September, however, the S&P Europe BMI began to decrease again, whilst all three of our focus countries were either increasing in risk (Netherlands, from a 150% level in the beginning of August to a 330% level at the end of September) or remaining relatively constant (France and Austria).

Figure 2: European Benchmark Median PD scores generated by PD Market Signals model, between January 1 and October 1, 2018.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In the emerging markets, Turkey, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar were the most prominent outliers from the S&P Mid-East and Africa BMI. As visible in Figure 3, the S&P Mid-East and Africa BMI saw less volatility throughout 2018 and was just slightly above its start value as of October. Two of the main drivers behind this increase were the PDs of the country benchmarks for Turkey and the UAE. Turkey, especially, stood out: the PD of its public companies performed in line with the S&P Mid-East and Africa BMI until mid-April, when it increased significantly and showed high volatility until October. On the other hand, the benchmark for Qatar decreased by over 60% between May and October.

Figure 3: S&P Mid-East and Africa BMI Median PD scores generated by PD Market Signals, between January 1 and October 1, 2018.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

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We then looked at different industries in Europe. As shown in Figure 4, the main shift in S&P BMIs occurred in February, with most industries staying on a similar level for the remaining period. The main outliers were the S&P Industrials, Materials, and, in particular, Consumer Discretionary Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) BMIs. The S&P Energy BMI saw some of the highest volatility, but was able to decrease significantly throughout September. At the same time, the Materials sector saw a continuous default risk increase from the beginning of June, finishing at an absolute median PD level of slightly over 1% when compared to the start of the year.

Figure 4: S&P EMEA Industry BMI Median PD scores generated by PD Market Signals, between January 1 and October 1, 2018.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In conclusion, looking at the public companies, Latin America, Asia Pacific, and Europe pointed towards an increase of credit risk between January 2018 and October 2018, amid heightened tensions due to the current U.S. policy towards Latin-American countries, the U.S./China trade war, and Brexit uncertainty.

1 S&P Global Ratings does not contribute to or participate in the creation of credit scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

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