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AM Power Report: Dailies could flounder amid dearth of fundamental support

The priceof power for day-aheaddelivery could have a weak showing Thursday, Oct. 6, amid predominantly softer demandprojections for the close of the workweek.

Traderswill also keep attuned to developments on the natural gas front. Rising to above the $3.00/MMBtulevel in the prior session, front-month November natural gas futures were probinglower early Thursday ahead of the opening bell. At last glance, the contract was1.9 cents lower at $3.022/MMBtu ahead of the midmorning release of weekly naturalgas storage data. Analysts and traders expect the report, which will cover the weekended Sept. 30, should show an average 70-Bcf injection into storage for the week.

On thedemand side, outlooks suggest diminished load across the bulk of the country atthe close of the workweek, as business-related demand typically tapers off approachingthe weekend break.

In theNortheast, demand in New England is projected to crest at 15,130 MW on Thursdayand 14,050 MW on Friday, while load in New York is seen touching a high near 18,644MW on Thursday and 18,273 MW on Friday. To the south, PJM Western region demandshould near 53,457 MW on Thursday and 50,425 MW at the end of the business week,while PJM Mid-Atlantic load is forecast to peak at 31,384 MW on Thursday and 30,108MW on Friday.

In theMidwest, load in PJM AEP region is poised to hit highs at 15,530 MW on Thursdayand 15,337 MW at the close of the workweek, while demand in PJM ComEd is calledto reach 14,398 MW on Thursday and 12,501 MW on Friday. In MISO, citing "forcedgeneration outages," the grid operator declared a Maximum Generation Alertfor the South region effective Wednesday, Oct. 5, from 3 p.m. ET to 6 p.m. ET.

In theSouth, load in ERCOT is forecast to see highs at 58,015 MW on Thursday and 52,920MW on Friday.

In theWest, CAISO demand could defy the broad decline to top out at 31,247 MW on Thursdayand 32,076 MW on Friday, which should limit downside momentum for power dailiesin the region Thursday amid the typical revised trading schedule featuring two-daypartly weekend products for Friday-Saturday delivery.

Alongthe forward curve, power prices for November were mixed but mostly higher at midweek,as steadily advancing front-month natural gas futures kept fueling costs elevated.

In theEast, price activity for November power deflated by about 20 cents against the wideruptick at NEPOOL-Mass but rose by more than $1 at PJM West to both post averagesaround $35, as power values for December spanned the low $50s in New England andthe high $30s at PJM West.

In theMidwest, prompt-month power parcels notched a better-than-$1 increase in deals carriedout at close to $34 at PJM AD, as similar products logged near 80-cent gains intrades done atop $32 at PJM Northern Illinois and at above $36 at MISO Indiana.Along the forward curve, power packages for December delivery across the three hubswere likewise transacted in the low to high $30s.

In theSouth, month-ahead power prices at the ERCOT markets rose by more or less 90 centsto average roughly between $28 and $31, as regional pricing for December power ranthrough the high $20s.

In theWest, power transactions for November in California shed almost 80 cents to averagenear $36 at North Path-15 and fell by about 60 cents to an index at roughly $35at South Path-15, as Mid-Columbia November held unchanged in deals done at $27 andPalo Verde November gave back around 90 cents in trades carried out above $26. Powerfor December delivery was seen changing hands in the low $40s in California andin the low $30s elsewhere in the region.

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Marketprices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication andare subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power andnatural gas indexprices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.