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AM Power Report: Dailies could sag with load expectations

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Essential Energy Insights - February 2021

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Six trends shaping the industries and sectors we cover in 2021

Six trends shaping the industries and sectors we cover in 2021


AM Power Report: Dailies could sag with load expectations

Next-day power values could flounder Tuesday, March 27, in line with mostly easing demand forecasts for midweek.

However natural gas prices could offer slight support as the front-month April contract was last seen trading 3.1 cents higher at $2.649/MMBtu at 6:45 a.m. ET, adding to the prior-day advance ahead of the expiration of the April contract at the close of business Tuesday.

Looking at demand, forecasts suggest mostly weaker load at midweek.

In the Northeast, load in New England could peak at 15,200 MW on Tuesday and 15,250 MW on Wednesday, however demand in New York could crest at 18,024 MW on Tuesday and 17,914 MW in the middle of the workweek. In the mid-Atlantic, PJM Western region load is expected to see highs at 50,405 MW on Tuesday and 47,906 MW on Wednesday, while PJM Mid-Atlantic demand is forecast to top out at 36,598 MW on Tuesday and 34,168 MW on Wednesday.

In the Midwest, demand in the PJM AEP region could touch a high near 15,968 MW on Tuesday and 14,811 MW on Wednesday, while load in PJM ComEd could reach highs at 11,366 MW on Tuesday and 11,091 MW on Wednesday.

In the South, Texas demand is called to reach 44,192 MW on Tuesday and 40,902 MW at midweek.

In the West, load in California should near 27,392 MW on Tuesday and 27,975 MW on Wednesday, running against the wider downtrend.

In forward trade, April power posted a mixed showing into the week's opening session Monday, as midrange forecasts and the calendar continued to imply diverging weather-related demand prospects.

In the East, the month-ahead power offering added almost 60 cents in trades assessed in the high $30s in New England and tacked on 40 cents in deals valued in the low to mid-$30s at PJM West. Further along the forward curve, May power was discussed in the high $20s in New England and the low $30s at PJM West.

In the Midwest, a 5-cent uptick nudged PJM AD April to the mid-$30s and a roughly 40-cent gain steered PJM Northern Illinois April to the high $20s, as MISO Indiana April held near unchanged day on day in the low $30s. Looking ahead, power for May delivery was similarly quoted in the high $20s to the mid-$30s overall.

In the South, pricing for April power at ERCOT hubs was off roughly 10 cents to as much as 30 cents on the day in the mid-$20s to the low $30s. Regional price activity for May power spanned the high $20s to the low $30s.

In the West, California saw front-month power prices fall by 75 cents to the high $20s at North Path-15 and retreat by 35 cents to the low $20s at South Path-15, as prompt-month power values slipped by between 30 cents and 40 cents to the mid- into high $10s at Mid-Columbia and the low $20s at Palo Verde. Further out, pricing for May power was pegged in the low $10s at Mid-Columbia and the low $20s to the low $30s elsewhere in the region.

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Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.