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S&P: Fed's dovish pivot eases growth concerns, but US recession odds unchanged


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S&P: Fed's dovish pivot eases growth concerns, but US recession odds unchanged

S&P Global Ratings said the overall odds of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months are unchanged at 20% to 25% despite improved investor sentiment following the Federal Reserve's dovish pivot on interest rates earlier this year.

After four interest rate hikes in 2018, the Fed signaled in March that its next rate increase may not come until 2020, with the majority of its officials citing increased risks to the U.S. economic outlook.

"The change in the Fed's stance appears to have ameliorated heightened investor concerns over global economic development, and currently, financial market sentiment toward growth seems relatively more favorable than three months ago," S&P Global Ratings said in its latest quarterly U.S. Business Cycle Barometer report.

"Still, unresolved policy-related risks — trade policy, in particular — along with the associated tightening in financial conditions continue to loom over the U.S. economy in the coming months," the rating agency added.

S&P Global Ratings maintained its forecast of a U.S. growth slowdown, projecting real GDP expansion of 2.2% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020.

The rating agency noted that out of the 10 economic indicators it tracks, five indicators remain positive, three are in neutral level and two are negative.

"All in all, in the absence of large exogenous shock, the macro conditions are not signaling a recession in the next year," the rating agency said.