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East, Midwest US power markets swing higher with load; West values sag

Editor's Note: Please be advised that S&P Global Market Intelligence will no longer publish daily articles on price trends in the U.S. natural gas, electricity and emissions markets beginning June 1, 2018. Pricing data for these energy markets will continue to be available on the Market Intelligence platform.

Next-day power markets in the U.S., excluding those in the West, gained ground Thursday, May 24, boosted by forecasts for mostly elevated Friday demand.

After notching a scant gain the day prior, the front-month June contract closed the session with a 2.6-cent increase to $2.940/MMBtu despite reports of a better-than-expected 91-Bcf net injection during the week ended May 18.

Following the loss of Pinnacle West Capital Corp.'s Palo Verde 2 in Arizona, total U.S. nuclear plant availability slipped to 93.02% early May 24.

Elevated demand forecasts lift East dailies

Projections for stronger Friday demand sent power markets in the East higher Thursday.

At next-day markets, deals at PJM West rose roughly $10 and spanned the mid- to high $50s while packages at the New England Mass hub and New York Zone G added $3 to $4 on the session and ranged in the low $30s and high $30s, respectively.

Day-ahead markets also ticked higher with load support. DAMs at the Mass hub, New York Zone A, Zone G and Zone J added $2 to $7 from the midweek and noted averages of $32.25, $38.94, $35.63 and $40.25, respectively.

Grid operators in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic expect demand to rise ahead of the long weekend. Load in New England may reach 13,950 MW on Thursday and 15,500 MW on Friday while demand in New York should touch 18,852 MW on Thursday and 20,950 MW on Friday. Load in the PJM Mid-Atlantic region could top out at 37,062 MW on Thursday and 41,191 MW on Friday, while demand in the PJM Western region might crest at 57,470 MW on Thursday and 62,795 MW on Friday.

Midwest markets edge higher with load support

Hubs in the Midwest advanced Thursday owing to support from elevated demand forecasts.

PJM AEP-Dayton hub saw power trade in the low to high $50s, rising more than $10 on the session, while MISO Indiana deals ranged in the high $40s to low $50s, around $3 higher from the midweek.

Looking at load, demand in the PJM AEP region should hit peaks of 18,173 MW on Thursday and 18,719 MW on Friday, while load in the PJM ComEd region may near highs of 14,309 MW on Thursday and 16,498 MW on Friday.

Texas DAMs continue to gain ground with demand

Strong Friday load forecasts continued to fuel day-ahead markets in Texas on Thursday.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas should see peaks of 59,776 MW on Thursday and 63,168 MW on Friday.

Day-ahead markets noted gains of more than $15 with power prices averaging $67.53 at ERCOT Houston, $70.00 at ERCOT North, $69.59 at ERCOT South and $67.12 at ERCOT West.

Western power markets tumble in revised trade

Low weekend demand due to next-day schedule revisions sent daily power prices in the West lower on Thursday.

Taking into account the Memorial Day holiday May 28, markets in the West traded power for May 26-27 delivery with typically subdued weekend load forecasts working to pull down values across the board.

In the Northwest, on-peak power prices at Mid-Columbia ranged from less than $1 into the negatives, down more than $10, while the California-Oregon Border noted losses of roughly $10 with power deals quoted in the low teens.

In California, South Path-15 on-peak packages slipped more than $10 and spanned the low teens.

In the Southwest, values at Palo Verde and Mead tumbled $7 to $8 on the session and were heard in the low to high teens at the former and the low to mid-teens at the latter.

The California ISO is expecting highs of 28,239 MW on Thursday and 26,389 MW on Friday.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.