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ING将出售Kotak Mahindra的股份;中国、欧洲将延长货币互换协议

Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market Driven View

AVIA OTT Summit 2019 Offers Insight Into Changing OTT Roadmap


ING将出售Kotak Mahindra的股份;中国、欧洲将延长货币互换协议

* 据《路透社》援引一份交易条款清单报道ING Groep NV 正考虑剥离他们在印度Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. 价值3亿美元的股份。清单显示,这项交易有高达5.5亿美元的增发权。ING的一位女发言人证实了这一举动。

* 中国人民银行和欧洲央行同意将双边本币互换协议再延长三年,该协议将继续执行之前的条款和参数,互换规模仍为3500亿元人民币和450亿欧元。

* 据《路透社》引述熟悉相关事项的知情人士”报道,总部位于英国的私募股权公司Permira接近达成收购Bank of East Asia Ltd.旗下股份登记单元Tricor Holdings的交易。据称双方已在进行深入谈判,Permira或将以7.5亿至8亿美元的价格买下该单元。两家公司尚未签署正式协议。

* 据《路透社》引述三位知悉相关情况的人士的消息报道Deutsche Börse AG 与中国外汇交易中心合作建立合资企业的计划已被退回,因为这家德国公司把重点转向了与London Stock Exchange Group Plc 合并的计划上。

* 据《彭博社》引述知情人士”报道Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 亚太地区投资银行解决方案负责人Anthony Miller计划从该公司离职。

* Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry & Trade Postal Savings Bank of China Co. Ltd. 在跨境支付方面展开合作

* 据《路透社》报道Credit Suisse Group AG 已任命Tsuneaki Hirao担任该公司日本地区私人银行业务部门的总经理兼负责人。

大中华地区

* 据《上海证券报》报道,中国银行间市场交易商协会表示,由于东北特殊钢集团有限责任公司未能及时披露2015年年度报告及今年第一季度财务信息,他们的债务融资工具相关业务因此被暂停。

* 据《财新网》报道,中国邮政储蓄银行成功在香港上市,此次IPO集资总额为566.3亿港元,海外机构投资者中包括索罗斯基金。

* 据中国《科技日报》报道,自2014年起,中国三农金融缺口超过3万亿元。互联网金融公司被要求做好农村金融服务并降低金融风险。

* 据《路透社》报道,中国银行业协会首席经济学家巴曙松表示,在面对人民币贬值压力的背景下,中国应适度提高对人民币汇率波动的容忍度。相关报告指出,这将有利于灵活应对离岸市场汇率波动和进一步推动人民币国际化。

* 据《上海证券报》报道,今年1-8月份,中国集合信托市场上共计发行595只房地产信托产品,发行规模达1549.2亿元,同比上涨13.7%

* 据《台北时报》报道,彭博社的调查显示,经济学家们关于台湾地区央行是否将维持关键利率不变这个问题的看法不一。在26位接受调查的经济学家当中,共有14位预计由央行行长彭淮南领导的货币政策委员会将维持1.375%的关键利率,其他经济学家预计会做出自20159月以来第五次下调,下调至1.25%

* 据《彭博社》引述交易所备案文件上的数据报道Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. Ltd. 表示,其董事会已批准注销64.6亿元的资产。

* 据《台北时报》引述台湾Mega International Commercial Bank Co. Ltd. 董事长Michael Chang的消息报道,该行聘请了纽约专家来制定合规机制。

* 据《路透社》引述一份中文文件报道Far Eastern International Bank Ltd.计划发行40亿新台币的次级债券。这只七年期债券以1.55%的利率定价。票面金额和发行价格为1000万新台币。

日本与韩国

* 据东京《日本经济新闻》报道,在失业率下降的背景下,2015年日本私营部门的工资连续三年增长。平均工资达到420万日元,同比增长1.3%

* 据《The Mainichi Shimbun报道10Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. 将维持10年期住房贷款利率不变,但该行将上调20年期抵押贷款利率。Mizuho Bank Ltd. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. 也将维持类似产品的利率。

* 据《韩联社》报道,根据韩国基金评级公司KGZeroin的数据显示,9月越南海外基金吸引了总计783亿韩元的海外投资资金。这与8月的趋势相似,8月有超过500亿韩元的资金投资越南的海外基金。

* 据《韩联社》报道,韩国金融监督院将对Woori CardLotte Card进行检查,以评估两家公司业务运营和财务的稳健性。

* 据《Money Today报道Bank of Korea 将重新设计观察、收集综合消费者信心指数,以之作为该国消费者信心指标的方式。这是自1995年以来的21年间首次做出此类调整。

东南亚

* 据《Krungthep Turakij报道,泰国央行董事会宣布任命五位高管,自101日起生效。助理行长Chantavarn Sucharitakul 将从金融市场业务组调往新成立的企业战略与关系组。

* 据《Post Today报道,泰国内阁同意财政部设立一家资产管理公司,负责Islamic Bank of Thailand 470亿泰铢不良贷款融资的管理工作,该行的不良贷款融资总量占其贷款总额的43.4%。泰国政府还批准向这家银行增资25亿泰铢,以增加其流动性。

* 据《Krungthep Turakij报道,由于公共投资和出口情况的改善,KASIKORN Research Center将其对泰国2016年的GDP增长预测从之前的3%上调至3.3%。与此同时,泰国副首相Somkid Jatusripitak相信,2016年无需采取额外的刺激措施,该国经济也能实现3.2%增长

* 据《Post Today报道Viriyah Insurance PCL 公布,自201512月以来,该公司直接保费收入达217亿泰铢,同比增长1.2%

* 据《信息银行》引述印尼金融服务管理局负责银行业务监管的执行主管Nelson Tampubolonm的消息报道,该机构预计2017年印尼将实现12%14%的信贷增长,高于2016年增长11%12%的预测。

* 据《雅加达环球报》报道,在2016-2017财年世界经济论坛全球竞争力报告调查的138个国家中,印尼的竞争力排名下降4位至第41名,这是因为该国劳动力市场僵化、官僚作风和上网速度慢等问题。

* 另据马来西亚《星报》报道,马来西亚在全球竞争力报告中的排名从去年的第18位下降至第25位。

* 在新加坡高等法院驳回关案件之后,Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd..的新加坡分行就一项股票累计期权争端达成解决方案。该分行在一项索赔高达约9400万新加坡元和1.86亿港元的案件中是被告方。这项诉讼是于2013927日提出。

南亚

* 据《印度商业线报》报道,印度储备银行副行长S.S. Mundra表示,不能有没有领导的银行,意在指该国的国有银行中出现的潜在领导真空的现象。

* 据《The Economic Times》引述熟悉正在进行的谈判的三位独立消息人士报道Tata Sons旗下单元Tata Realty & InfrastructureIDFC Ltd.的资产管理单元IDFC Alternatives收购恰蒂斯加尔邦公路资产的竞争中处于领先位置。

* 印度RBL Bank Ltd. 通过向总部位于英国的开发金融机构CDC Group Plc发行符合巴塞尔III协议标准的二级债券,筹资33亿卢比。

澳大利亚和新西兰

* 据《澳洲人报》报道National Australia Bank Ltd. 在过去18个月内根据其财务咨询响应方案向糟糕的理财建议的受害者支付了650万澳元赔偿。

* IMB Ltd. 任命Noel Cornish 接替即将退休的Michael Cole担任该公司的董事长。Cornish2015年以来一直担任副董事长,并且他从2010年开始还是该公司的非执行董事。

Sally Wang, Sarun Saelee, Cathy Hwang, Emi White Aditya Suharmoko对此文亦有贡献。

《每日必读》的截稿时间为香港时间早上630分。一些外部链接可能需要额外订阅。


Watch: Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

Mar. 19 2019 — Steve Piper shares the outlook for U.S. power markets, discussing capacity retirements and whether continued development of wind and solar power plants may mitigate the generation shortfall.

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Credit Analysis
2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

Mar. 15 2019 — On November 20, 2018, a joint event hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence and S&P Global Ratings took place in London, focusing on credit risk and 2019 perspectives.

Pascal Hartwig, Credit Product Specialist, and I provided a review of the latest trends observed across non-financial corporate firms through the lens of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s statistical models.1 In particular, Pascal focused on the outputs produced by a statistical model that uses market information to estimate credit risk of public companies; if you want to know more, you can visit here.

I focused on an analysis of how different Brexit scenarios may impact the credit risk of European Union (EU) private companies that are included on S&P Capital IQ platform.

Before, this, I looked at the evolution of their credit risk profile from 2013 to 2017, as shown in Figure 1. Scores were generated via Credit Analytics’ PD Model Fundamentals Private, a statistical model that uses company financials and other socio-economic factors to estimate the PD of private companies globally. Credit scores are mapped to PD values, which are based on/derived from S&P Global Ratings Observed Default Rates.

Figure 1: EU private company scores generated by PD Model Fundamentals Private, between 2013 and 2017.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.2 As of October 2018.

For any given year, the distribution of credit scores of EU private companies is concentrated below the ‘a’ level, due to the large number of small revenue and unrated firms on the S&P Capital IQ platform. An overall improvement of the risk profile is visible, with the score distribution moving leftwards between 2013 and 2017. A similar picture is visible when comparing companies by country or industry sector,3 confirming that there were no clear signs of a turning point in the credit cycle of private companies in any EU country or industry sector. However, this view is backward looking and does not take into account the potential effects of an imminent and major political and economic event in the (short) history of the EU: Brexit.

To this purpose, S&P Global Market Intelligence has developed a statistical model: the Credit Analytics Macro-scenario model enables users to study how potential future macroeconomic scenarios may affect the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU private companies. This model was developed by looking at the historical evolution of S&P Global Ratings’ rated companies under different macroeconomic conditions, and can be applied to smaller companies after the PD is mapped to a S&P Global Market Intelligence credit score.

“Soft Brexit” (Figure 2): This scenario is based on the baseline forecast made by economists at S&P Global Ratings and is characterized by a gentle slow-down of economic growth, a progressive monetary policy tightening, and low yet volatile stock-market growth.4

Figure 2: “Soft Brexit” macro scenario.5

Source: S&P Global Ratings Economists. As of October 2018.

Applying the Macro-scenario model, we analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over a three-year period from 2018 to 2020, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 3):
    • The median credit risk score within specific industry sectors (Aerospace & Defense, Pharmaceuticals, Telecoms, Utilities, and Real Estate) shows a good degree of resilience, rising by less than half a notch by 2020 and remaining comfortably below the ‘b+’ threshold.
    • The median credit score of the Retail and Consumer Products sectors, however, is severely impacted, breaching the high risk threshold (here defined at the ‘b-’ level).
    • The remaining industry sectors show various dynamics, but essentially remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 3: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

  • Country Analysis (Figure 4):
    • Although the median credit risk score may not change significantly in certain countries, the associated default rates need to be adjusted for the impact of the credit cycle.6 The “spider-web plot” shows the median PD values for private companies within EU countries, adjusted for the credit cycle. Here we include only countries with a minimum number of private companies within the Credit Analytics pre-scored database, to ensure a robust statistical analysis.
    • Countries are ordered by increasing level of median PD, moving clock-wise from Netherlands to Greece.
    • Under a soft Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2018 and 2020, but still remains below the yellow threshold (corresponding to a ‘b+’ level).
    • Interestingly, Italian private companies suffer more than their Spanish peers, albeit starting from a slightly lower PD level in 2017.

Figure 4: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

“Hard Brexit” (Figure 5): This scenario is extracted from the 2018 Stress-Testing exercise of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Bank of England.7 Under this scenario, both the EU and UK may go into a recession similar to the 2008 global crisis. Arguably, this may seem a harsh scenario for the whole of the EU, but a recent report by the Bank of England warned that a disorderly Brexit may trigger a UK crisis worse than 2008.8

Figure 5: “Hard Brexit” macro scenario.9

Sources:”2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (European Banking Authority, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies“ (Bank of England, March 2018).

Also in this case, we apply the Macro-scenario model to analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over the same three-year period, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 6):
    • Despite all industry sectors being severely impacted, the Pharmaceuticals and Utilities sectors remain below the ‘b+’ level (yellow threshold).
    • Conversely, the Airlines and Energy sectors join Retail and Consumer Products in the “danger zone” above the ‘b-’ level (red threshold).
    • The remaining industry sectors will either move into or remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 6: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

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  • Country Analysis (Figure 7):
    • Under a hard Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2017 and 2020, entering the intermediate risk band and suffering even more than its Irish peers.
    • Notably, by 2020 the French private sector may suffer more than the Italian private sector, reaching the attention threshold (here shown as a red circle, and corresponding to a ‘b-’ level).
    • While it is hard to do an exact like-for-like comparison, it is worth noting that our conclusions are broadly aligned with the findings from the 48 banks participating in the 2018 stress-testing exercise, as recently published by the EBA:10 the major share of 2018-2020 new credit risk losses in the stressed scenario will concentrate among counterparties in the UK, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany (leaving aside the usual suspects, such as Greece, Portugal, etc.).

Figure 7: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In conclusion: In Europe, the private companies’ credit risk landscape does not yet signal a distinct turning point, however Brexit may act as a pivot point and a catalyst for a credit cycle inversion, with an intensity that will be dependent on the Brexit type of landing (i.e., soft versus hard).

1 S&P Global Ratings does not contribute to or participate in the creation of credit scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
2 Lowercase nomenclature is used to differentiate S&P Global Market Intelligence credit scores from the credit ratings issued by S&P Global Ratings.
3 Not shown here.
4 Measured via Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth, Long-term / Short-term (L/S) European Central Bank Interest Rate Spread, and FTSE100 or STOXX50 stock market growth, respectively.
5 Macroeconomic forecast for 2018-2020 (end of year) by economists at S&P Global Ratings; the baseline case assumes the UK and the EU will reach a Brexit deal (e.g. a “soft Brexit”).
6 When the credit cycle deteriorates (improves), default rates are expected to increase (decrease).
7 Source: “2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (EBA, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies”. (Bank of England, March 2018).
8 Source: “EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability – A response to the House of Commons Treasury Committee”. (Bank of England, November 2018).
9 As a hard Brexit scenario, we adopt the stressed scenario included in the 2018 stress testing exercise and defined by the EBA and the Bank of England.
10 See, for example, Figure 18 in “2018 EU-Wide Stress Test Result” (EBA November 2018), found at:https://eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/2419200/2018-EU-wide-stress-test-Results.pdf

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2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market-Driven View

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Credit Analysis
2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market Driven View

Mar. 15 2019 — On November 20, 2018, a joint event hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence and S&P Global Ratings took place in London, focusing on credit risk and 2019 perspectives.

Giorgio Baldassarri, Global Head of the Analytic Development Group, and I provided a review of the latest trends observed across non-financial corporate firms through the lens of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s statistical models.1 In particular, Giorgio focused on the analysis of the evolution of the credit risk profile of European Union companies between 2013 and 2017, and how this may change under various Brexit scenario; if you want to know more, you can visit here.

I started with an overview of key trends of the credit risk of public companies at a global level, before diving deeper into regional and industry sector-specific performance and pointing out some key drivers of country- and industry-level risk. Credit Analytics Probability of Default (PD) Market Signals model was used to derive these statistics. This is a structural model (enhanced Merton approach) that produces PD values for all public corporates and financial institutions globally. Credit scores are mapped to PD values, which are derived from S&P Global Ratings observed default rates (ODRs).

From January 2018 to October 2018, we saw an increase in the underlying PD values generated by PD Market Signals across all regional S&P Broad Market Indices (BMIs), as shown in Figure 1. For Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America, the overall increase was primarily driven by the significant shift in February 2018, which saw an increase in the PD between 100% to 300% on a relative basis. The main mover on an absolute basis was Latin America, which had a PD increase of over 0.35 percentage points.

Figure 1: BMI Benchmark Median credit scores generated by PD Market Signals, between January 1 and October 1, 2018.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

Moving to the S&P Europe BMI in Figure 2, we can further isolate three of the main drivers behind the overall increase in PDs (this time measured on a relative basis), namely Netherlands, France, and Austria. Among these, the Netherlands had the most prominent increase between August and October. Again, one can identify the significant increase in the PDs in February, ranging from 150% to 230%, across all three countries. Towards July, we saw the spread between the three outliers shrink significantly. In August and September, however, the S&P Europe BMI began to decrease again, whilst all three of our focus countries were either increasing in risk (Netherlands, from a 150% level in the beginning of August to a 330% level at the end of September) or remaining relatively constant (France and Austria).

Figure 2: European Benchmark Median PD scores generated by PD Market Signals model, between January 1 and October 1, 2018.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In the emerging markets, Turkey, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar were the most prominent outliers from the S&P Mid-East and Africa BMI. As visible in Figure 3, the S&P Mid-East and Africa BMI saw less volatility throughout 2018 and was just slightly above its start value as of October. Two of the main drivers behind this increase were the PDs of the country benchmarks for Turkey and the UAE. Turkey, especially, stood out: the PD of its public companies performed in line with the S&P Mid-East and Africa BMI until mid-April, when it increased significantly and showed high volatility until October. On the other hand, the benchmark for Qatar decreased by over 60% between May and October.

Figure 3: S&P Mid-East and Africa BMI Median PD scores generated by PD Market Signals, between January 1 and October 1, 2018.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

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We then looked at different industries in Europe. As shown in Figure 4, the main shift in S&P BMIs occurred in February, with most industries staying on a similar level for the remaining period. The main outliers were the S&P Industrials, Materials, and, in particular, Consumer Discretionary Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) BMIs. The S&P Energy BMI saw some of the highest volatility, but was able to decrease significantly throughout September. At the same time, the Materials sector saw a continuous default risk increase from the beginning of June, finishing at an absolute median PD level of slightly over 1% when compared to the start of the year.

Figure 4: S&P EMEA Industry BMI Median PD scores generated by PD Market Signals, between January 1 and October 1, 2018.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In conclusion, looking at the public companies, Latin America, Asia Pacific, and Europe pointed towards an increase of credit risk between January 2018 and October 2018, amid heightened tensions due to the current U.S. policy towards Latin-American countries, the U.S./China trade war, and Brexit uncertainty.

1 S&P Global Ratings does not contribute to or participate in the creation of credit scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

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AVIA OTT Summit 2019 Offers Insight Into Changing OTT Roadmap

Mar. 06 2019 — Over-the-top video in the Asia-Pacific has been rapidly evolving as OTT players continue to learn and understand the landscape. Industry experts who participated in the Asia Video Industry Association OTT Summit 2019, held February 20 in Singapore, emphasized the importance of relevant content and adaptability of OTT players, particularly in finding the right business model.

According to Media Partners Asia's Vice President Aravind Venugopal, most OTT players that entered the region in 2016 — citing Netflix Inc., HOOQ and iflix — primarily offered a subscription service, whereas PCCW Media Ltd's Viu provided ad-supported content. He said that a year after, each one was trying to figure out what revenue model would work best. It was at that time that sachet pricing, transactional video-on-demand and ad-supported content became more prevalent.

As for 2018, it was said that OTT players moved toward paths through which monetization could continue to grow, and advertising video-on-demand had to be maximized. Venugopal cited that in one of Media Partners Asia's studies, online video platforms that were more ad-focused came out on top. China players such as iQIYI Inc., Tencent Holdings Ltd.'s Tencent Video and Youku Tudou Inc. are able to monetize consumers by adding sachet pricing, as well as allowing customers to purchase magazines or books, or any other offering that would make them stay on the service.

As more OTT services enter the region, finding the most ideal business model to retain and grow viewership can be a challenge. Panelists who were part of the "AVOD vs SVOD vs TVOD: Finding the Right Business Model" discussion, however, agreed there really is not any right model — it is yet to be discovered as OTT players learn more about their respective areas of operation.

Services will have to adapt and should be open to evolving content offerings based on consumers, while also taking regulatory policies into consideration.

In the case of HOOQ, CTO Michael Fleshman highlighted that the company is moving toward using a freemium model, through which consumers may eventually no longer need to register on the site. The OTT player is also trying to maintain simpler packages, with free content very much accessible for everyone.

He also said that HOOQ was initially worried about cannibalizing the subscription video-on-demand business, but as it turns out, engagement is still doing well.

HOOQ recently added linear channels to its offering, and Fleshman emphasized that the OTT service is not shifting but expanding its service so customers will not feel the need to go somewhere else to watch linear channels.

When global OTT player Netflix entered Asia in 2016, it had an international playbook in hand, which made collaborating with local operators a crucial step in learning more about the region. Subscription payment was one of its main concerns and having local partners became beneficial in addressing this.

When asked how the company felt about competitors and what its competitive advantage was in the Asia-Pacific region, Tony Zameczkowski, Netflix's vice president of business development in Asia, said the company sees competition as a good thing.

He also said Netflix's competitive advantage is its platform, content, marketing and partnership. In terms of platform, Zameczkowski elaborated that Netflix provides a "hyper-personalized" service capable of providing recommendations and personalizing the customer's content library.

In terms of content, Zameczkowski acknowledged that the OTT player's local content offering was initially weak. Soon after acquiring various licensing content from producers, however, Netflix started producing original content. The company will continue to invest in relevant titles. In relation to marketing the service, Zameczkowski said that Netflix banks on its titles, part of its promotional strategy.

Partnering with telcos was also very instrumental in establishing Netflix's presence in the region. Likewise, partnering with device manufacturers was important — a different approach for the company, as the Netflix app would normally be included on most devices in U.S. and European markets.

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