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UBS reestructura operaciones en México; Banco Votorantim invierte en emprendimientos de tecnología financiera

Broadband Only Homes Skyrocket In 2018 Validating Top MSOs Connectivity Pivot

Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View


UBS reestructura operaciones en México; Banco Votorantim invierte en emprendimientos de tecnología financiera

* UBS Group AG pretende que su unidad mexicana de corretaje, UBS Casa de Bolsa, se encargue de las operaciones de la subsidiaria bancaria local UBS Bank México SA Institución de Banca Múltiple UBS Grupo Financiero durante el próximo año, informó Reuters, según datos de un memorando interno. Debido a la estructuración planeada, la cual se encuentra sujeta a la aprobación del ente regulatorio, UBS no buscará renovar su licencia bancaria en México, según comentó a la cadena de noticias una persona familiarizada con el asunto.

* Banco Votorantim SA invertirá un monto inicial de 3 millones de reales brasileños en el fondo BR Startups de Microsoft Corp. a través de una sociedad destinada a realizar inversiones conjuntas en emprendimientos tecnológicos financieros de Brasil, informó Reuters. "Buscamos emprendimientos que hayan superado la etapa de validación y desarrollo de producto, y que necesiten capital para crecer y consolidarse en el mercado", dijo Gabriel Ferreira, jefe de Estrategia, planificación y crédito minorista de Banco Votorantim.

MÉXICO Y CENTROAMÉRICA

* Fitch Ratings colocó la calificación nacional de AA(GTM) asignada a Aseguradora General S.A. en la lista de revisión con implicaciones negativas (Rating Watch Negative). La decisión está basada en el acuerdo de venta anunciado de la participación del 51% que tiene Generali en la aseguradora, la cual se encuentra sujeta a la correspondiente aprobación regulatoria.

* Los siete bancos más grandes de México, también conocidos como los G-7, se encuentran entre las entidades del sector financiero que tienen el riesgo más alto de exposición a lavado de dinero y financiamiento del terrorismo, informó El Economista, según un estudio que llevó a cabo la unidad de inteligencia financiera del Gobierno.

* Moody's afirmó que la inversión de 25.000 millones de pesos mexicanos que anunció recientemente Citigroup Inc. para la unidad mexicana Banco Nacional de México SA Integrante del Grupo Financiero Banamex hará que la subsidiaria sea más competitiva, ya que impulsará su posición de mercado y mejorará la eficiencia operativa de esta, informó El Economista.

* Banco del Bajío S.A. anunció la introducción de la tecnología de comunicación de campo cercano (Near Field Communication) para ayudar a sus clientes a realizar pagos inalámbricos en tiendas de todo México, informó El Economista.

* UNIFIN Financiera S.A.B. de C.V. SOFOM E.N.R. planea obtener hasta 3.000 millones de pesos mexicanos mediante la emisión de deuda en el mercado accionario local, informó El Economista, según dichos del director general, Luis Barroso. La compañía usará lo obtenido para su capital de trabajo y la generación de nuevos negocios.

BRASIL

* Fitch Ratings retiró la calificación de administrador de activos de "altos estándares" asignada a HSBC Gestao de Recursos Ltda. debido a la reorganización de la unidad de negocios y la incorporación de la matriz, HSBC Bank Brasil SA - Banco Múltiplo, a Banco Bradesco SA.

* La Cámara de Diputados de Brasil aprobó con 366 votos a favor y 111 en contra la propuesta del presidente, Michel Temer, de limitar el aumento del gasto público a la tasa de inflación, informó Reuters. La medida aún se encuentra sujeta a otra votación de mayoría absoluta en dicha Cámara y dos votaciones más en el Senado.

* La compañía Azimut Holding SpA, con sede con Italia, anunciará pronto una fusión de sus subsidiarias brasileñas, AZ Quest Investimentos Ltda. y AZ Legan Asset Management Ltda., informó Reuters, según dichos de "dos personas con conocimiento directo sobre el acuerdo".  La entidad fusionada podría tener alrededor de 4.300 millones de reales brasileños en activos administrados.

* El 10 de octubre, fiscales de Brasil presentaron cargos por corrupción adicionales contra el expresidente Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, informó Reuters. Lula ya enfrenta otras acusaciones en el marco de una amplia investigación por corrupción que involucra a la petrolera estatal Petrobras.

* Tanto el real brasileño como el índice de referencia de acciones de Ibovespa del país han tenido desempeños sólidos en lo que va de 2016, y muchos analistas creen que Brasil se encuentra bien posicionado para lograr nuevos triunfos a medida que el Gobierno implemente reformas económicas, informó Financial Times. "Brasil es el mercado más prometedor de América Latina en este momento, incluso más que Argentina, dadas las bajas valuaciones y la dirección de la política", dijo Walter Molano de BCP Securities.

* UBS Group AG se asoció con la consultora de bienes raíces Real Estate Capital con el fin de incrementar la demanda entre los inversores institucionales para lograr oportunidades en el mercado inmobiliarios de Brasil, informó Reuters. La sociedad se centrará principalmente en inversiones en las ciudades de Río de Janeiro y São Paulo.

* Cielo S.A. designó a Victor Schabbel, exanalista de Credit Suisse Group AG, como su nuevo titular de relaciones con los inversionistas, informó Valor Econômico. Schabbel reemplazará a Roberta Noronha, quien abandonó la operadora brasileña de tarjetas de crédito y débito.

* Ronaldo Cury, vicepresidente de vivienda pública del Sindicato de la Industria de la Construcción Civil del Estado de São Paulo, dijo que los 34.000 millones de reales que tiene disponibles Caixa Econômica Federal para créditos hipotecarios para lo que queda de 2016, según se anunció recientemente, no son suficiente para impulsar la actividad en el sector de la vivienda, informó Valor Econômico. De acuerdo con Cury, el Gobierno debería bajar las tasas de interés con el fin de impulsar la demanda de créditos.

* El volumen total de acuerdos en los mercados de capitales de Brasil alcanzó los 42.980 millones de reales en el tercer trimestre, lo que representa más del doble del volumen alcanzado en el mismo período del año previo, informó Valor Econômico, según datos de la asociación financiera y de mercados de capitales, Anbima.

ANDINA

* El 27 de octubre, el Gobierno de Colombia iniciará negociaciones de paz con el Ejército de Liberación Nacional, el segundo grupo de rebeldes más grande del país después de las FARC, informó Reuters. Las negociaciones surgieron luego de que los colombianos votaran en contra del acuerdo de paz que el Gobierno había alcanzado con los rebeldes de las FARC.

* Se espera que Citigroup Inc. venda su negocio de banca minorista en Colombia a un banco que ya se encuentre establecido en ese país, como Banco Davivienda SA, Banco GNB Sudameris SA, Banco Colpatria Multibanca Colpatria SA y Banco CorpBanca Colombia SA, informó Portafolio. Citi ya anunció acuerdos para la venta de sus operaciones minoristas en Brasil y Argentina.

* La aseguradora peruana La Positiva Seguros y Reaseguros S.A. espera emitir 15.000 pólizas de seguro agrícola para agricultores pequeños y medianos del país durante 2016, lo que representa un incremento del 20% respecto de 2015, informó Gestión.

CONO SUR

* Felipe Carvallo, vicepresidente y analista sénior de Moody's, dijo que el 2016 podría ser el peor año de los últimos tiempos para el sector bancario de Chile, debido al deterioro del entorno operativo, la caída en la calidad de los activos y la presión sobre la rentabilidad, informó Diario Financiero. La agencia de calificaciones prevé que los incumplimientos de créditos del sector aumentarán a más del 2,6% en los próximos 12 a 18 meses, con respecto al 1,6% observado en junio.

* El otorgamiento de créditos bancarios al sector de manufactura en Uruguay experimentó un aumento del 6,8% en los 12 meses transcurridos hasta agosto, a la vez que el financiamiento para el sector de servicios creció un 11,4% en el mismo período, informó El Observador, según datos del banco central.

Matthew Craze contribuyó a este artículo.                  

The Daily Dose tiene un plazo de redacción de las 8:00 am hora de São Paulo, y explora las fuentes de noticias publicados en Inglés, Portugués y Español. Algunos enlaces externos pueden requerir una suscripción.


Technology, Media & Telecom
Broadband Only Homes Skyrocket In 2018 Validating Top MSOs Connectivity Pivot

Highlights

The segment stood at an estimated 23.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2018, accounting for 24% of all wireline high-speed data homes.

The following post comes from Kagan, a research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

To learn more about our TMT (Technology, Media & Telecommunications) products and/or research, please request a demo.

Mar. 20 2019 — The U.S. broadband-only home segment logged its largest net adds on record in 2018, validating Comcast Corp.'s and Charter Communications Inc.'s moves to make broadband, or connectivity, the keystone of their cable communication businesses.

The size and momentum of the segment also put in perspective the recent high-profile online-video video announcements by the top two cable operators as well as AT&T Inc.'s WarnerMedia shake-up and plans to go toe-to-toe with Netflix in the subscription video-on-demand arena in the next 12 months.

We estimate that wireline broadband households not subscribing to traditional multichannel, or broadband-only homes, rose by nearly 4.3 million in 2018, topping the gains from the previous year by roughly 22%. Overall, the segment stood at an estimated 23.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2018, accounting for 24% of all wireline high-speed data homes.

For perspective, broadband-only homes stood at an estimated 11.3 million a mere four years ago, accounting for 13% of residential cable and telco broadband subscribers.

The once all-powerful, must-have live linear TV model, which individuals and families essentially treated as a utility upon moving into a new residence, increasingly is viewed as too expensive and unwieldy in the era of affordable, nimble internet-based video alternatives. This has resulted in a sizable drop in penetration of occupied households.

As a result, continued legacy cord cutting is baked in and broadband-only homes are expected to continue to rise at a fast clip, with the segment's momentum in the next few years compounded by Comcast's, Charter's and AT&T's ambitious moves into online-video territory.

Note: we revised historical broadband-only home estimates as part of our fourth-quarter 2018, following restatements of historical telco broadband subscriber figures and residential traditional multichannel subscriber adjustments.

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Q4'18 multichannel video losses propel full-year drop to edge of 4 million

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Q4'18 multiproduct analysis sheds more light on video's fall from grace

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Listen: Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Mar. 20 2019 — Some fintech companies are making hay with digital platforms that tout their differences with banks, even though they are often offering virtually the same products. In the episode, we discuss with colleagues Rachel Stone and Kiah Haslett the deposit strategies employed by the likes of Chime, Aspiration and other incumbent players such as Ally Financial, Discover and Capital One. Those efforts conjure up memories of a Don Draper pitch in Mad Men and likely will enjoy continued success.

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Watch: Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

Mar. 19 2019 — Steve Piper shares the outlook for U.S. power markets, discussing capacity retirements and whether continued development of wind and solar power plants may mitigate the generation shortfall.

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Credit Analysis
2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

Mar. 15 2019 — On November 20, 2018, a joint event hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence and S&P Global Ratings took place in London, focusing on credit risk and 2019 perspectives.

Pascal Hartwig, Credit Product Specialist, and I provided a review of the latest trends observed across non-financial corporate firms through the lens of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s statistical models.1 In particular, Pascal focused on the outputs produced by a statistical model that uses market information to estimate credit risk of public companies; if you want to know more, you can visit here.

I focused on an analysis of how different Brexit scenarios may impact the credit risk of European Union (EU) private companies that are included on S&P Capital IQ platform.

Before, this, I looked at the evolution of their credit risk profile from 2013 to 2017, as shown in Figure 1. Scores were generated via Credit Analytics’ PD Model Fundamentals Private, a statistical model that uses company financials and other socio-economic factors to estimate the PD of private companies globally. Credit scores are mapped to PD values, which are based on/derived from S&P Global Ratings Observed Default Rates.

Figure 1: EU private company scores generated by PD Model Fundamentals Private, between 2013 and 2017.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.2 As of October 2018.

For any given year, the distribution of credit scores of EU private companies is concentrated below the ‘a’ level, due to the large number of small revenue and unrated firms on the S&P Capital IQ platform. An overall improvement of the risk profile is visible, with the score distribution moving leftwards between 2013 and 2017. A similar picture is visible when comparing companies by country or industry sector,3 confirming that there were no clear signs of a turning point in the credit cycle of private companies in any EU country or industry sector. However, this view is backward looking and does not take into account the potential effects of an imminent and major political and economic event in the (short) history of the EU: Brexit.

To this purpose, S&P Global Market Intelligence has developed a statistical model: the Credit Analytics Macro-scenario model enables users to study how potential future macroeconomic scenarios may affect the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU private companies. This model was developed by looking at the historical evolution of S&P Global Ratings’ rated companies under different macroeconomic conditions, and can be applied to smaller companies after the PD is mapped to a S&P Global Market Intelligence credit score.

“Soft Brexit” (Figure 2): This scenario is based on the baseline forecast made by economists at S&P Global Ratings and is characterized by a gentle slow-down of economic growth, a progressive monetary policy tightening, and low yet volatile stock-market growth.4

Figure 2: “Soft Brexit” macro scenario.5

Source: S&P Global Ratings Economists. As of October 2018.

Applying the Macro-scenario model, we analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over a three-year period from 2018 to 2020, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 3):
    • The median credit risk score within specific industry sectors (Aerospace & Defense, Pharmaceuticals, Telecoms, Utilities, and Real Estate) shows a good degree of resilience, rising by less than half a notch by 2020 and remaining comfortably below the ‘b+’ threshold.
    • The median credit score of the Retail and Consumer Products sectors, however, is severely impacted, breaching the high risk threshold (here defined at the ‘b-’ level).
    • The remaining industry sectors show various dynamics, but essentially remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 3: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

  • Country Analysis (Figure 4):
    • Although the median credit risk score may not change significantly in certain countries, the associated default rates need to be adjusted for the impact of the credit cycle.6 The “spider-web plot” shows the median PD values for private companies within EU countries, adjusted for the credit cycle. Here we include only countries with a minimum number of private companies within the Credit Analytics pre-scored database, to ensure a robust statistical analysis.
    • Countries are ordered by increasing level of median PD, moving clock-wise from Netherlands to Greece.
    • Under a soft Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2018 and 2020, but still remains below the yellow threshold (corresponding to a ‘b+’ level).
    • Interestingly, Italian private companies suffer more than their Spanish peers, albeit starting from a slightly lower PD level in 2017.

Figure 4: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

“Hard Brexit” (Figure 5): This scenario is extracted from the 2018 Stress-Testing exercise of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Bank of England.7 Under this scenario, both the EU and UK may go into a recession similar to the 2008 global crisis. Arguably, this may seem a harsh scenario for the whole of the EU, but a recent report by the Bank of England warned that a disorderly Brexit may trigger a UK crisis worse than 2008.8

Figure 5: “Hard Brexit” macro scenario.9

Sources:”2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (European Banking Authority, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies“ (Bank of England, March 2018).

Also in this case, we apply the Macro-scenario model to analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over the same three-year period, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 6):
    • Despite all industry sectors being severely impacted, the Pharmaceuticals and Utilities sectors remain below the ‘b+’ level (yellow threshold).
    • Conversely, the Airlines and Energy sectors join Retail and Consumer Products in the “danger zone” above the ‘b-’ level (red threshold).
    • The remaining industry sectors will either move into or remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 6: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

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  • Country Analysis (Figure 7):
    • Under a hard Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2017 and 2020, entering the intermediate risk band and suffering even more than its Irish peers.
    • Notably, by 2020 the French private sector may suffer more than the Italian private sector, reaching the attention threshold (here shown as a red circle, and corresponding to a ‘b-’ level).
    • While it is hard to do an exact like-for-like comparison, it is worth noting that our conclusions are broadly aligned with the findings from the 48 banks participating in the 2018 stress-testing exercise, as recently published by the EBA:10 the major share of 2018-2020 new credit risk losses in the stressed scenario will concentrate among counterparties in the UK, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany (leaving aside the usual suspects, such as Greece, Portugal, etc.).

Figure 7: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In conclusion: In Europe, the private companies’ credit risk landscape does not yet signal a distinct turning point, however Brexit may act as a pivot point and a catalyst for a credit cycle inversion, with an intensity that will be dependent on the Brexit type of landing (i.e., soft versus hard).

1 S&P Global Ratings does not contribute to or participate in the creation of credit scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
2 Lowercase nomenclature is used to differentiate S&P Global Market Intelligence credit scores from the credit ratings issued by S&P Global Ratings.
3 Not shown here.
4 Measured via Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth, Long-term / Short-term (L/S) European Central Bank Interest Rate Spread, and FTSE100 or STOXX50 stock market growth, respectively.
5 Macroeconomic forecast for 2018-2020 (end of year) by economists at S&P Global Ratings; the baseline case assumes the UK and the EU will reach a Brexit deal (e.g. a “soft Brexit”).
6 When the credit cycle deteriorates (improves), default rates are expected to increase (decrease).
7 Source: “2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (EBA, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies”. (Bank of England, March 2018).
8 Source: “EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability – A response to the House of Commons Treasury Committee”. (Bank of England, November 2018).
9 As a hard Brexit scenario, we adopt the stressed scenario included in the 2018 stress testing exercise and defined by the EBA and the Bank of England.
10 See, for example, Figure 18 in “2018 EU-Wide Stress Test Result” (EBA November 2018), found at:https://eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/2419200/2018-EU-wide-stress-test-Results.pdf

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2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market-Driven View

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