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AM Power Report: Dailies could diverge with demand, ease with gas in week's closing session

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AM Power Report: Dailies could diverge with demand, ease with gas in week's closing session

Theprice of power fornext-day delivery could be mixed to lower Friday, April 29, as traders considervaried demand forecasts for the onset of the next workweek alongside ongoingweakness at the natural gas futures arena.

in its firstday as the front-month contract, June natural gas futures were edging slightlyhigher ahead of the market open Friday, moving last at $2.086/MMBtu, up just0.8 cent on light pre-weekend short-covering.

In step with the weakness in futures, day-ahead natural gasmarkets could press lower Friday. Traders will book revised, partly weekendproducts Friday for delivery May 1-2 to accommodate for the start of the new monththis weekend.

Onthe demand side, grid operators anticipate diverging load at the start of thenext workweek on May 2, with the uptick encouraged by the typical rebound inbusiness-related demand coming off the weekend.

Inthe Northeast, demand in New England is expected to see highs at 13,600 MW onFriday and 14,320 MW on May 2, while load in New York could peak at 17,799 MWon Friday and 17,642 MW on May 2. In the Mid-Atlantic, the PJM Interconnectionoperator sees PJM Western region demand hitting a high at 45,829 MW on Fridayand 46,408 MW at the return of the business week, while PJM Mid-Atlantic loadis seen cresting at 29,820 MW on Friday and 31,168 MW on May 2.

Inthe Midwest, demand in PJM AEP region is poised to top out at 14,479 MW onFriday and 14,618 MW at the start of the new workweek, while load in PJM ComEdis forecast to touch a high near 11,060 MW on Friday and 11,005 MW on May 2.

Inthe South, ERCOT load should near 47,337 MW on Friday and 40,935 MW on May 2. Inthe West, demand in CAISO is called to reach 27,356 MW on Friday and 26,385 MWon April 30, but should find some upside momentum at the start of the nextworkweek May 2 amid the typical post-weekend recovery of full industrial andcommercial demand.

Interm activity, power deals for May delivery were predominantly steady to higherin their penultimate session as the front-month offering April 28, while powertransactions for delivery in June were anchored overall by losses at thenatural gas futures arena that implied cheaper fueling costs.

Inthe East, month-ahead power pricing rose by near $1 at NEPOOL-Mass and advancedby about 30 cents at PJM West to average at more or less $32, as power valuesfor June slid by roughly 50 cents in New England and fell by $1 at PJM West toindexes on either side of $35.

Inthe Midwest, front-month power trades were boosted by around 40 cents to anindex above $30 at PJM AD and lifted by $1 to an average near $28 at PJMNorthern Illinois, while similar deals were bolstered by about 70 cents to anaverage atop $29 at MISO Indiana. Along the forward curve, power transactionsfor June at PJM AD deflated by a little more than 70 cents to an average above$32, as similar trades at PJM Northern Illinois and MISO Indiana slumped byaround $1 to indexes above $29.

Inthe South, power parcels for May added over $1 across the board in dealscarried out near $25 at ERCOT Houston and at more or less $23 at the rest ofthe ERCOT markets, as power products for delivery further out to June shedabout 50 cents to 60 cents in transactions ranging from about $26 to $28.

Inthe West, power prices for May in California climbed by more than 10 cents toan index above $23 at North Path-15 and held near steady at an average atroughly $21 at South Path-15, as prompt-month power values also held almostunchanged at around $14 at Mid-Columbia but slumped by a little over 30 centsagainst the wider uptick to an index close to $19 at Palo Verde. Price actionfor June power was off by about 70 cents at indexes above $24 at the Californiahubs, at almost $17 at Mid-Columbia and near $23 at Palo Verde.

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Marketprices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication andare subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas indexprices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.