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澳大利亚各大银行面临调查;加拿大基金管理人收购Edelweiss旗下单元的股份

Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market Driven View

AVIA OTT Summit 2019 Offers Insight Into Changing OTT Roadmap


澳大利亚各大银行面临调查;加拿大基金管理人收购Edelweiss旗下单元的股份

* 据《彭博社》报道,澳洲四大行的首席执行官们将在103日起这周接受议会委员会的常规调查, 调查内容包括他们向客户提供糟糕的金融建议以及未能完整执行央行降息幅度。该项调查将从104日开始,首先接受调查的是Commonwealth Bank of Australia 的首席执行官Ian Narev

* 据印度《Business Standard》引述相关企业的消息报道,加拿大Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, or CDPQ, 已同意收购印度Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd. 旗下单元Edelweiss Asset Reconstruction Co. Ltd. 20%的股份。过去四年间,加拿大的这家基金管理人还在印度进行了约500亿卢比的不良资产和专业企业信贷投资。

* 据《日本经济新闻亚洲评论报》引述巴基斯坦交易所旗下子公司的董事Ayyaz Afzal的消息报道,上海证券交易所正考虑收购巴基斯坦证券交易所不超过40%的股份。

* Henderson Group Plc Janus Capital Group Inc. 同意采用全股票方式,以平等合并的形式,成立Janus Henderson Global Investors Plc.。合并后,Janus 的最大股东Dai-ichi Life Insurance Co. Ltd. 将持有新集团约9%的股份,Dai-ichi 计划进一步投资该公司,使其所有者权益的比例提高到至少15%

* 总部位于休斯顿的支付处理商Cardtronics plc 收购DirectCash Payments Inc.的计划旨在让这家公司获得进入亚太市场的第一个立足点。

* 据《彭博社》引述知悉相关事项的人士的消息报道Bank of America Corp. 新加坡籍银行家Gautam Saxena Saikat Mukherjee已离职,Saxena曾是电信与媒体投资银行业亚太区的负责人,Mukherjee曾任总经理。

* 据《IFR报道Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. 已任命Luis Marcelo Moro担任其欧洲中东非洲地区金融机构集团团队的执行总监。Moro将常驻伦敦办公,他曾担任Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc 西班牙和葡萄牙地区的金融机构覆盖业务负责人。

大中华地区

* 据《财新网》报道,中国证监会发布《内地与香港股票市场交易互联互通机制若干规定》。该规定的适用范围包括沪港通和深港通,这意味着深港通已进入倒计时阶段。该规定还明确投资者委托香港经纪商通过以上两个机制买卖股票需遵守香港而不是内地的适当性监管规定。

* 据《路透社》引述《上海证券报》报道,中国将允许合格境外机构投资者(QFII)和人民币合格境外机构投资者(RQFII)方案投资者自行设定资产配置比例限制。中国证监会将废除QFIIRQFII方案的资产配置比例限制。

* 据《自由时报》报道,台湾中华经济研究院公布岛内9月制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)56.5,连续七个月处于扩张期,显示制造活动持续保持扩张势头。中华经济研究院院长吴中书表示,台湾地区2016年的经济增长有望超过1%

* 据《路透社》引述台湾金管会一份声明报道,金管会主委丁克华因该监管机构在处理 Mega Financial Holdings Co. Ltd. 违反反洗钱规定一事上遭到批评,决定辞去职务。丁克华递交辞呈,并希望此举能使外界就兆丰金融丑闻一事停止对金管会的伤害。此前,Mega Financial旗下的Mega International Commercial Bank Co. Ltd. 纽约支行因自身过失及违反美国《反洗钱法案》被美国当局罚款1.8亿美元。

日本与韩国

* 据《The Mainichi Shimbun报道Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. 的首席执行官Nobuyuki Hirano呼吁对日本银行的货币政策保持谨慎态度,指出相关政策对金融机构和实体经济的不利影响。

* Mitsubishi UFJ Financial GroupMitsubishi UFJ Lease & Finance Co. Ltd. 关闭了收购Hitachi Capital Corp. 合计27.21%股份的交易,这是两家公司建立资本联盟相关计划的组成部分。Mitsubishi UFJ Financial收购了Hitachi Capital26,884,484股股份,占比23.01%Mitsubishi UFJ Lease & Finance则收购了该公司4,909,340股股份,占比4.20%

* 据东京《日本经济新闻》报道Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. 签署了一项投资信托保管服务协议。

* 据《日本经济新闻》报道SBI Sumishin Net Bank Ltd. 将推出一项新的贷款计划,该计划扩展至基于信用卡交易数据的快速小额贷款。

* Reliance Nippon Life Insurance Co. Ltd. 任命Ashish Vohra担任该公司首席执行官。

* 据《Maeil Business Newspaper报道,韩国政府正考虑将Export-Import Bank of Korea 持有Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. Ltd.超过2万亿韩元的债务转换为股权。

* 据《Maeil Business Newspaper报道,韩国金融监督院的数据显示,6月底韩国银行业雇员总人数为132170人,创下自2007年以来的最低水平。在线银行业务日益流行被认为是造成银行雇员人数减少的原因之一。

* 据《Maeil Business Newspaper报道,韩国金融监督院表示,上半年该国银行对大企业集团的坏账敞口达19万亿韩元,较2015年年底增加1.3万亿韩元。

* 据《Money Today报道Dongbu Life Insurance Co. Ltd. 决定为有争议的自杀案件支付140亿韩元的逾期死亡抚恤金。

东南亚

* 据《印尼商报》报道,印尼央行表示,该国的税务大赦方案已通过遣返资金3621万亿印尼盾挽回税收97.2万亿印尼盾,成为世界上最成功的税务大赦项目。

* 据印尼《Infobank报道,印尼金融服务管理局已责令PT Bank Maybank Syariah Indonesia 进行合并或整合,因为去年其总不良贷款率增长了约一倍,从15.15%飙升至29.31%

* 据《雅加达环球报》报道PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk 计划发债2.5万亿印尼盾,用于支持他们的贷款扩张计划。

* 据泰国《Krungthep Turakij报道,负责经济事务的副总理Somkid Jatusripitak交给泰国证券交易委员会三项任务,并要求他们在三个月内,提交出明确建议。其中一项任务包括研究向初创企业提供融资支持的办法。

* 据泰国《Manager Daily报道,泰国财长Apisak Tantivorawong确认PromptPay服务将于1031日准备好上线。泰国银行一直在监管相关业务。

* 据《Krungthep Turakij报道,泰军人银行(TMB)经济研究中心预计,2016年泰国经济增速应到3.3%,高于此前2.8%的预期。因为私人消费和公共投资有所改善。

* 据《Krungthep Turakij报道KASIKORN Business-Technology Group将于2016年年内针对残疾人士推出两款新的支付和移动银行服务应用程序。

* 据《菲律宾星报》报道,菲律宾央行表示,由于银行之间的持续整合,今年上半年,在该国营业的银行数量已从去年同期的638家建设至618家。

南亚

* 印度储备银行要求所有银行确保新卡验收基础设施可以使用基于Aadhaar的生物认证技术处理支付交易,新验收的基础设施将于201711日起推广应用。

* RBL Bank Ltd. 收购了Utkarsh Micro Finance Ltd. 9.99%的股份,并同意将其产品组合扩大至面向Utkarsh Micro Finance的客户。

* 据《Indo-Asian News Service报道State Bank of India 在缅甸仰光开设他们的第54间海外分行。该行时隔53年重新恢复在缅甸的银行业务。

澳大利亚和新西兰

* 据《澳洲人报》报道,澳大利亚财长斯科特·莫里森表示,新的监管规定使银行或主要投资者任何操纵金融基准的行为均构成刑事犯罪,这将更好地保护澳大利亚人免受……可能滥用权力的损害

* Heartland Bank Ltd. 任命Vanessa Stoddart 担任独立董事。Stoddart New Zealand Refining Co. Ltd.Warehouse Group Ltd. Alliance Group Ltd.Tertiary Education Commission Financial Markets Authority的多家董事会工作。

Sally Wang, Jonathan Cheah, Jaekwon Lim Santibhap Ussavasodhi对此文亦有贡献

《每日必读》的截稿时间为香港时间早上630分。一些外部链接可能需额外订阅


Watch: Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

Mar. 19 2019 — Steve Piper shares the outlook for U.S. power markets, discussing capacity retirements and whether continued development of wind and solar power plants may mitigate the generation shortfall.

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Credit Analysis
2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

Mar. 15 2019 — On November 20, 2018, a joint event hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence and S&P Global Ratings took place in London, focusing on credit risk and 2019 perspectives.

Pascal Hartwig, Credit Product Specialist, and I provided a review of the latest trends observed across non-financial corporate firms through the lens of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s statistical models.1 In particular, Pascal focused on the outputs produced by a statistical model that uses market information to estimate credit risk of public companies; if you want to know more, you can visit here.

I focused on an analysis of how different Brexit scenarios may impact the credit risk of European Union (EU) private companies that are included on S&P Capital IQ platform.

Before, this, I looked at the evolution of their credit risk profile from 2013 to 2017, as shown in Figure 1. Scores were generated via Credit Analytics’ PD Model Fundamentals Private, a statistical model that uses company financials and other socio-economic factors to estimate the PD of private companies globally. Credit scores are mapped to PD values, which are based on/derived from S&P Global Ratings Observed Default Rates.

Figure 1: EU private company scores generated by PD Model Fundamentals Private, between 2013 and 2017.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.2 As of October 2018.

For any given year, the distribution of credit scores of EU private companies is concentrated below the ‘a’ level, due to the large number of small revenue and unrated firms on the S&P Capital IQ platform. An overall improvement of the risk profile is visible, with the score distribution moving leftwards between 2013 and 2017. A similar picture is visible when comparing companies by country or industry sector,3 confirming that there were no clear signs of a turning point in the credit cycle of private companies in any EU country or industry sector. However, this view is backward looking and does not take into account the potential effects of an imminent and major political and economic event in the (short) history of the EU: Brexit.

To this purpose, S&P Global Market Intelligence has developed a statistical model: the Credit Analytics Macro-scenario model enables users to study how potential future macroeconomic scenarios may affect the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU private companies. This model was developed by looking at the historical evolution of S&P Global Ratings’ rated companies under different macroeconomic conditions, and can be applied to smaller companies after the PD is mapped to a S&P Global Market Intelligence credit score.

“Soft Brexit” (Figure 2): This scenario is based on the baseline forecast made by economists at S&P Global Ratings and is characterized by a gentle slow-down of economic growth, a progressive monetary policy tightening, and low yet volatile stock-market growth.4

Figure 2: “Soft Brexit” macro scenario.5

Source: S&P Global Ratings Economists. As of October 2018.

Applying the Macro-scenario model, we analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over a three-year period from 2018 to 2020, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 3):
    • The median credit risk score within specific industry sectors (Aerospace & Defense, Pharmaceuticals, Telecoms, Utilities, and Real Estate) shows a good degree of resilience, rising by less than half a notch by 2020 and remaining comfortably below the ‘b+’ threshold.
    • The median credit score of the Retail and Consumer Products sectors, however, is severely impacted, breaching the high risk threshold (here defined at the ‘b-’ level).
    • The remaining industry sectors show various dynamics, but essentially remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 3: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

  • Country Analysis (Figure 4):
    • Although the median credit risk score may not change significantly in certain countries, the associated default rates need to be adjusted for the impact of the credit cycle.6 The “spider-web plot” shows the median PD values for private companies within EU countries, adjusted for the credit cycle. Here we include only countries with a minimum number of private companies within the Credit Analytics pre-scored database, to ensure a robust statistical analysis.
    • Countries are ordered by increasing level of median PD, moving clock-wise from Netherlands to Greece.
    • Under a soft Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2018 and 2020, but still remains below the yellow threshold (corresponding to a ‘b+’ level).
    • Interestingly, Italian private companies suffer more than their Spanish peers, albeit starting from a slightly lower PD level in 2017.

Figure 4: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

“Hard Brexit” (Figure 5): This scenario is extracted from the 2018 Stress-Testing exercise of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Bank of England.7 Under this scenario, both the EU and UK may go into a recession similar to the 2008 global crisis. Arguably, this may seem a harsh scenario for the whole of the EU, but a recent report by the Bank of England warned that a disorderly Brexit may trigger a UK crisis worse than 2008.8

Figure 5: “Hard Brexit” macro scenario.9

Sources:”2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (European Banking Authority, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies“ (Bank of England, March 2018).

Also in this case, we apply the Macro-scenario model to analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over the same three-year period, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 6):
    • Despite all industry sectors being severely impacted, the Pharmaceuticals and Utilities sectors remain below the ‘b+’ level (yellow threshold).
    • Conversely, the Airlines and Energy sectors join Retail and Consumer Products in the “danger zone” above the ‘b-’ level (red threshold).
    • The remaining industry sectors will either move into or remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 6: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

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  • Country Analysis (Figure 7):
    • Under a hard Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2017 and 2020, entering the intermediate risk band and suffering even more than its Irish peers.
    • Notably, by 2020 the French private sector may suffer more than the Italian private sector, reaching the attention threshold (here shown as a red circle, and corresponding to a ‘b-’ level).
    • While it is hard to do an exact like-for-like comparison, it is worth noting that our conclusions are broadly aligned with the findings from the 48 banks participating in the 2018 stress-testing exercise, as recently published by the EBA:10 the major share of 2018-2020 new credit risk losses in the stressed scenario will concentrate among counterparties in the UK, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany (leaving aside the usual suspects, such as Greece, Portugal, etc.).

Figure 7: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In conclusion: In Europe, the private companies’ credit risk landscape does not yet signal a distinct turning point, however Brexit may act as a pivot point and a catalyst for a credit cycle inversion, with an intensity that will be dependent on the Brexit type of landing (i.e., soft versus hard).

1 S&P Global Ratings does not contribute to or participate in the creation of credit scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
2 Lowercase nomenclature is used to differentiate S&P Global Market Intelligence credit scores from the credit ratings issued by S&P Global Ratings.
3 Not shown here.
4 Measured via Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth, Long-term / Short-term (L/S) European Central Bank Interest Rate Spread, and FTSE100 or STOXX50 stock market growth, respectively.
5 Macroeconomic forecast for 2018-2020 (end of year) by economists at S&P Global Ratings; the baseline case assumes the UK and the EU will reach a Brexit deal (e.g. a “soft Brexit”).
6 When the credit cycle deteriorates (improves), default rates are expected to increase (decrease).
7 Source: “2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (EBA, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies”. (Bank of England, March 2018).
8 Source: “EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability – A response to the House of Commons Treasury Committee”. (Bank of England, November 2018).
9 As a hard Brexit scenario, we adopt the stressed scenario included in the 2018 stress testing exercise and defined by the EBA and the Bank of England.
10 See, for example, Figure 18 in “2018 EU-Wide Stress Test Result” (EBA November 2018), found at:https://eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/2419200/2018-EU-wide-stress-test-Results.pdf

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2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market-Driven View

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Credit Analysis
2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market Driven View

Mar. 15 2019 — On November 20, 2018, a joint event hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence and S&P Global Ratings took place in London, focusing on credit risk and 2019 perspectives.

Giorgio Baldassarri, Global Head of the Analytic Development Group, and I provided a review of the latest trends observed across non-financial corporate firms through the lens of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s statistical models.1 In particular, Giorgio focused on the analysis of the evolution of the credit risk profile of European Union companies between 2013 and 2017, and how this may change under various Brexit scenario; if you want to know more, you can visit here.

I started with an overview of key trends of the credit risk of public companies at a global level, before diving deeper into regional and industry sector-specific performance and pointing out some key drivers of country- and industry-level risk. Credit Analytics Probability of Default (PD) Market Signals model was used to derive these statistics. This is a structural model (enhanced Merton approach) that produces PD values for all public corporates and financial institutions globally. Credit scores are mapped to PD values, which are derived from S&P Global Ratings observed default rates (ODRs).

From January 2018 to October 2018, we saw an increase in the underlying PD values generated by PD Market Signals across all regional S&P Broad Market Indices (BMIs), as shown in Figure 1. For Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America, the overall increase was primarily driven by the significant shift in February 2018, which saw an increase in the PD between 100% to 300% on a relative basis. The main mover on an absolute basis was Latin America, which had a PD increase of over 0.35 percentage points.

Figure 1: BMI Benchmark Median credit scores generated by PD Market Signals, between January 1 and October 1, 2018.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

Moving to the S&P Europe BMI in Figure 2, we can further isolate three of the main drivers behind the overall increase in PDs (this time measured on a relative basis), namely Netherlands, France, and Austria. Among these, the Netherlands had the most prominent increase between August and October. Again, one can identify the significant increase in the PDs in February, ranging from 150% to 230%, across all three countries. Towards July, we saw the spread between the three outliers shrink significantly. In August and September, however, the S&P Europe BMI began to decrease again, whilst all three of our focus countries were either increasing in risk (Netherlands, from a 150% level in the beginning of August to a 330% level at the end of September) or remaining relatively constant (France and Austria).

Figure 2: European Benchmark Median PD scores generated by PD Market Signals model, between January 1 and October 1, 2018.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In the emerging markets, Turkey, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar were the most prominent outliers from the S&P Mid-East and Africa BMI. As visible in Figure 3, the S&P Mid-East and Africa BMI saw less volatility throughout 2018 and was just slightly above its start value as of October. Two of the main drivers behind this increase were the PDs of the country benchmarks for Turkey and the UAE. Turkey, especially, stood out: the PD of its public companies performed in line with the S&P Mid-East and Africa BMI until mid-April, when it increased significantly and showed high volatility until October. On the other hand, the benchmark for Qatar decreased by over 60% between May and October.

Figure 3: S&P Mid-East and Africa BMI Median PD scores generated by PD Market Signals, between January 1 and October 1, 2018.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

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We then looked at different industries in Europe. As shown in Figure 4, the main shift in S&P BMIs occurred in February, with most industries staying on a similar level for the remaining period. The main outliers were the S&P Industrials, Materials, and, in particular, Consumer Discretionary Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) BMIs. The S&P Energy BMI saw some of the highest volatility, but was able to decrease significantly throughout September. At the same time, the Materials sector saw a continuous default risk increase from the beginning of June, finishing at an absolute median PD level of slightly over 1% when compared to the start of the year.

Figure 4: S&P EMEA Industry BMI Median PD scores generated by PD Market Signals, between January 1 and October 1, 2018.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In conclusion, looking at the public companies, Latin America, Asia Pacific, and Europe pointed towards an increase of credit risk between January 2018 and October 2018, amid heightened tensions due to the current U.S. policy towards Latin-American countries, the U.S./China trade war, and Brexit uncertainty.

1 S&P Global Ratings does not contribute to or participate in the creation of credit scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

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AVIA OTT Summit 2019 Offers Insight Into Changing OTT Roadmap

Mar. 06 2019 — Over-the-top video in the Asia-Pacific has been rapidly evolving as OTT players continue to learn and understand the landscape. Industry experts who participated in the Asia Video Industry Association OTT Summit 2019, held February 20 in Singapore, emphasized the importance of relevant content and adaptability of OTT players, particularly in finding the right business model.

According to Media Partners Asia's Vice President Aravind Venugopal, most OTT players that entered the region in 2016 — citing Netflix Inc., HOOQ and iflix — primarily offered a subscription service, whereas PCCW Media Ltd's Viu provided ad-supported content. He said that a year after, each one was trying to figure out what revenue model would work best. It was at that time that sachet pricing, transactional video-on-demand and ad-supported content became more prevalent.

As for 2018, it was said that OTT players moved toward paths through which monetization could continue to grow, and advertising video-on-demand had to be maximized. Venugopal cited that in one of Media Partners Asia's studies, online video platforms that were more ad-focused came out on top. China players such as iQIYI Inc., Tencent Holdings Ltd.'s Tencent Video and Youku Tudou Inc. are able to monetize consumers by adding sachet pricing, as well as allowing customers to purchase magazines or books, or any other offering that would make them stay on the service.

As more OTT services enter the region, finding the most ideal business model to retain and grow viewership can be a challenge. Panelists who were part of the "AVOD vs SVOD vs TVOD: Finding the Right Business Model" discussion, however, agreed there really is not any right model — it is yet to be discovered as OTT players learn more about their respective areas of operation.

Services will have to adapt and should be open to evolving content offerings based on consumers, while also taking regulatory policies into consideration.

In the case of HOOQ, CTO Michael Fleshman highlighted that the company is moving toward using a freemium model, through which consumers may eventually no longer need to register on the site. The OTT player is also trying to maintain simpler packages, with free content very much accessible for everyone.

He also said that HOOQ was initially worried about cannibalizing the subscription video-on-demand business, but as it turns out, engagement is still doing well.

HOOQ recently added linear channels to its offering, and Fleshman emphasized that the OTT service is not shifting but expanding its service so customers will not feel the need to go somewhere else to watch linear channels.

When global OTT player Netflix entered Asia in 2016, it had an international playbook in hand, which made collaborating with local operators a crucial step in learning more about the region. Subscription payment was one of its main concerns and having local partners became beneficial in addressing this.

When asked how the company felt about competitors and what its competitive advantage was in the Asia-Pacific region, Tony Zameczkowski, Netflix's vice president of business development in Asia, said the company sees competition as a good thing.

He also said Netflix's competitive advantage is its platform, content, marketing and partnership. In terms of platform, Zameczkowski elaborated that Netflix provides a "hyper-personalized" service capable of providing recommendations and personalizing the customer's content library.

In terms of content, Zameczkowski acknowledged that the OTT player's local content offering was initially weak. Soon after acquiring various licensing content from producers, however, Netflix started producing original content. The company will continue to invest in relevant titles. In relation to marketing the service, Zameczkowski said that Netflix banks on its titles, part of its promotional strategy.

Partnering with telcos was also very instrumental in establishing Netflix's presence in the region. Likewise, partnering with device manufacturers was important — a different approach for the company, as the Netflix app would normally be included on most devices in U.S. and European markets.

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