Despite calls for slack March 19 demand, next-day power markets across the U.S. were mixed to ultimately higher Friday, March 16.
Following a scant loss in early trade, the front-month April contract reversed the downtick and closed the session in shallow positive territory at $2.688/MMBtu, up 0.7 cent.
In other supply, with increased output at three reactors across the country, total U.S. nuclear plant availability rose early March 16 to 89.45% ahead of more potential outages over the weekend.
Looking at demand, AccuWeather.com forecasts that parts of the Northeast may be hit by another winter storm by early next week.
Western power markets move higher with load prospects
Potentially higher March 19 demand associated with next-day schedule revisions helped western power markets to a modest premium Friday.
Markets in the West traded power for March 18-19 delivery, with inclusion of the higher load weekday in the product giving a boost to values.
Demand in California may reach 26,985 MW on Friday and 25,495 MW on Saturday but with load possibly rebounding at the start of the new workweek on March 19.
In California, power prices at South Path-15 rose by roughly $5 and ranged in the mid- to high $30s. In the Southwest, Palo Verde trades were done in the mid- to high $20s for a daily premium close to $2. In the Northwest, Mid-Columbia and the California-Oregon Border saw values add $1 to $2 on the session with packages exchanged in the low $20s at the former and the mid- to high $20s at the latter.
Mass hub values rise; PJM West dailies sag
Next-day markets in the East capped off the Friday session with mixed moves, mirroring outlooks for varied March 19 demand.
At the next-day markets, power prices at the New England Mass hub rose by more than $5 from Thursday and ranged in the mid-$60s while PJM West packages slipped by about $3 and spanned the low to mid-$30s.
Day-ahead markets for the typically lower-load Saturday delivery day favored losses. The Mass hub, New York Zone G and New York Zone J fell by $3 to $8 from Thursday and noted averages of $53.87, $26.03 and $33.17, respectively, while DAMs at New York Zone A were little changed from Thursday and averaged $23.41.
Demand in the Northeast is expected to rise following forecasts for another winter storm. Load in New England may top out at 15,750 MW on Friday and 16,500 MW on March 19 while demand in New York should crest at 18,909 MW on Friday and 19,110 MW on March 19.
In contrast, load in the mid-Atlantic is expected to fall. The PJM Mid-Atlantic region should see load peaks of 36,475 MW on Friday and 35,850 MW on March 19 while demand in the PJM Western region might near highs of 55,928 MW on Friday and 52,342 MW on March 19.
Texas values retreat with declining demand forecasts
Lower load expectations worked to pull down next-day markets in Texas on Friday.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is projecting peaks of 43,427 MW on Friday and 43,124 MW on March 19.
Next-day deals at ERCOT North were seen in the mid-$20s, up roughly a dollar from Thursday.
Despite typically subdued weekend demand, day-ahead markets rose by $1 to $6 from Thursday and noted averages of $32.73 at ERCOT Houston, $31.17 at ERCOT North, $30.51 at ERCOT South and $31.22 at ERCOT West.
Midwest markets close workweek unsupported by load
Daily power markets in the central U.S. spent a quiet Friday session finding no support in subdued March 19 demand forecasts.
Day-ahead values sagged with weekend demand. DAMs at PJM AEP-Dayton and PJM Northern Illinois fell by $2 to $5 from Thursday and averaged $32.07 and $26.80, respectively.
Load in the PJM AEP region should touch 17,953 MW on Friday and 17,053 MW on March 19, while demand in the PJM ComEd region might hit highs of 12,226 MW on Friday and 11,775 MW on March 19.
Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.
