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AM Power Report: Dailies could ease with demand, gas ahead of weekend

Powerdailies could notch lossesin the week's closing session Friday, Oct. 7, as the anticipation of deflated demandin much of the country coming off the weekend conspires with potential weaknessin natural gas.

Althougha round of late buying pushed front-month November natural gas futures 0.8 centhigher Oct. 6, the contractwas hovering near unchanged at $3.049/MMBtu early Friday ahead of the opening bell.

Day-aheadnatural gas prices are likely to leak lower Friday in many cases, with the inclusionof the lighter-load weekend days in the trading package offering typical pressure.

On thedemand side, load forecasts for the start of the next workweek on Oct. 10 are variedacross the East but lower elsewhere in the country.

In theNortheast, demand in New England could touch a high near 14,610 MW on Friday and15,000 MW on Oct. 10, while load in New York will likely top out at 18,363 MW onFriday and 18,126 MW at the return of the business week. Farther south, PJM Westernregion demand is forecast to peak at 50,264 MW on Friday and 46,876 MW on Oct. 10,while PJM Mid-Atlantic load is called to reach 30,625 MW on Friday and 30,778 MWon Oct. 10.

In theMidwest, demand in the PJM AEP region is poised to crest at 15,273 MW on Fridayand 14,420 MW on Oct. 10, while load in PJM ComEd could hit highs at 12,214 MW onFriday and 11,392 MW on Oct. 10.

In theSouth, load in ERCOT is projected to see highs at 51,897 MW on Friday and 49,423MW at the start of the next workweek. In the West, CAISO demand shouldpeak near 31,518 MW on Friday and 30,955 MW on Oct. 8.

In forwardtrade, power values for November predominantly favored the upside Oct. 6, in tandemwith front-month natural gas futures that notched additional gains on the sessionto ultimately keep fueling costs elevated.

In theEast, trades for prompt-month power rose by nearly 70 cents at NEPOOL-Mass and climbedby roughly 30 cents at PJM West to indexes spotted between $35 and $36, while powerdeals for delivery in December averaged in the low $50s in New England and in thelow $40s at PJM West.

In theMidwest, the PJM AD November product was boosted by around 40 cents and PJM NorthernIllinois November was lifted by about $1 to indexes on either side of $34, as MISOIndiana November was bolstered by approximately 30 cents to an average near $37.Along the forward curve, power for December across the three hubs was marked inthe mid- to high $30s.

In theSouth, price activity for November power at the ERCOT markets added about 10 centsacross the board to average roughly between $28 and $31, as regional pricing forDecember power ran through the high $20s.

In theWest, California saw front-month power transactions ascend by around 50 cents toindexes atop $36 at North Path-15 and near $35 at South Path-15, as Palo Verde Novembertacked on almost 30 cents and Mid-Columbia November deflated by roughly 40 centsagainst the broad uptick to both average at close to $27. Power parcels for Decemberwere quoted in the low $40s in California and in the low $30s elsewhere in the region.

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Marketprices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication andare subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power andnatural gas indexprices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.